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Keeper Thread: Last chance to draft these young players?

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Re: Keeper Thread: Last chance to draft these young players?

Postby hybrid » Fri Dec 26, 2008 10:48 pm

DbacksRback wrote:
MasterX1918 wrote:Cameron Maybin. If he starts he's guaranteed 50-60 steals.

Id like to hear your reasons behind this...he's never even had 30 in a season


I'll speak for him as to what he is most likely thinking. First, you have to remember the minor league season is shorter so you can't just look at it into a context of one season. In his minor league career he has 1,093 AB's w/ 73 SB's, which if he started in the majors he woud most likely get roughly 600+ AB's in the lead off position (I'm assuming that's the posters thought as well, since if he didn't lead off things would be different). If assuming that, his SB's on average would come out to 40+ based on his minor league stats. But that doesn't take into account that he always hit in the middle of the line up, in the majors it would be different as a lead off man and be more required to run. Therefor its not out of question that he could run more than he did in the minors and get 50+ SB. It's optimistic of course, but it isn't unreasonal as long as he has decent ratios and leads off most of the year.

Also, in 81 AB so far he has 9 SB, small sample size of course but he has shown his has the speed and instincts to run on guys in the majors.
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Re: Keeper Thread: Last chance to draft these young players?

Postby zepfan » Sat Dec 27, 2008 12:01 am

Not sure if Rickie Weeks and Jeremy Hermida still qualify but since I'm a sucker for punishment I'll throw those names out there. I'll probably end up drafting them in a few leagues again this year. !+) What the heck, may as well throw Howie Kendrick out there too.
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Re: Keeper Thread: Last chance to draft these young players?

Postby pokerplaya » Sat Dec 27, 2008 12:23 am

zepfan wrote:Not sure if Rickie Weeks and Jeremy Hermida still qualify but since I'm a sucker for punishment I'll throw those names out there. I'll probably end up drafting them in a few leagues again this year. !+) What the heck, may as well throw Howie Kendrick out there too.


Weeks especially will bring you pain...avoid!
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Re: Keeper Thread: Last chance to draft these young players?

Postby wkelly91 » Sat Dec 27, 2008 8:20 am

I'm going to throw James Loney in there....this year he starts to drive the ball more...
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Re: Keeper Thread: Last chance to draft these young players?

Postby RedSoxNation04 » Sat Dec 27, 2008 8:54 am

zepfan wrote:Not sure if Rickie Weeks and Jeremy Hermida still qualify but since I'm a sucker for punishment I'll throw those names out there. I'll probably end up drafting them in a few leagues again this year. !+) What the heck, may as well throw Howie Kendrick out there too.

%-6 , :-P and :~(
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Re: Keeper Thread: Last chance to draft these young players?

Postby RedSoxNation04 » Sat Dec 27, 2008 9:02 am

MrE wrote:The idea behind this thread is to list the players that you think are about to break out and will be annual high picks in the future (i.e. draft them now before it is too late). Who are these players? Where should they be drafted?

Initial Players that come to my mind (with their perceived value):

Justin Upton (7-12th round range)
Chris Davis (not in the top 100)
Phil Hughes (92 mph FB or 95? Ace or #3 starter? not in the top 150)
Edison Volquez (is he a legit ace? Probably still draftable outside of the top 70)
Delmon Young (Bust or down year? Not in the top 100)
Ryan Zimmerman (Wrist injury held him back. Is he ready to elevate himself into David Wright territory? Not in the top 75)
Chris Young (Is he a .240 hitter or .265? Is he a 25 SB candidate or 15? Not in the top 75)
Stephen Drew (Appeared to break out this past year. Has he reached his potential/begun entering his prime? Borderline top 75)

I am sure there are many others. Feel free to comment. I personally am undecided on how high to target guys like Upton and Zimmerman.

Just going off your list quickly here, I like Upton in the 12th-15th rounds and think he can outproduce that draft position.

Davis is a masher and will be top 100 quickly as long as he doesn't turn into Jack Cust.

Not a believer in Volquez at this point though he carried my pitching staff in the first half last year. I think he regresses somewhat this year. No way the HR's and BB's don't catch up to him in '09. Would be surprised to see an ERA under 4.00 this year.

Love Zimmerman and think he is poised for a solid year, maybe not breakout, but a year that puts him in that Aramis Ramirez, Evan Longoria tier for three baggers.

Very iffy on Young and he doesn't carry much value for me if he doesn't start stealing bags again. A .240 hitter with 25 HR and marginal SB's and RBI's...meh, not someone I'm looking to lock down for the longterm.

Drew has the tools to do it year in and year out...the question is, will he? I think he does...

He hasn't done anything yet, but I also have a lot of manlove for Matt Wieters...when I think about Joe Mauer with pop, I get really excited... ;-D
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Re: Keeper Thread: Last chance to draft these young players?

Postby mak1277 » Sat Dec 27, 2008 10:00 am

wkelly91 wrote:I'm going to throw James Loney in there....this year he starts to drive the ball more...


I'm with you on Loney. I recall hearing Mattingly talking about how he hadn't developed his power yet and that it would be coming. I also think this is the year to get Kershaw if you want him in a dynasty. I'm not sold 100% on him, but if he is going to be "that guy" it's going to happen in the short term.
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Re: Keeper Thread: Last chance to draft these young players?

Postby San D » Sat Dec 27, 2008 12:47 pm

These two are a bit of a reach, but if things go right, they could shoot up the keeper charts since they have good groundball and strikeout rates and are fairly young.

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Re: Keeper Thread: Last chance to draft these young players?

Postby tavo2311 » Sat Dec 27, 2008 1:03 pm

Off of the original list, I say this is the last year to draft Phil Hughes. He will either stay healthy and put it all together in a year with absolutely no pressure on him (unlike last) or he will get injured and/or underperform again and not be worth a draft pick in the future.
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Re: Keeper Thread: Last chance to draft these young players?

Postby B-Chad » Sat Dec 27, 2008 11:35 pm

David Price- Lefties that throw gas and have top notch control don't grow on trees and this one is special. I think he will be good this year, and will be a great pitcher shortly thereafter. I like him slightly more then Kershaw (but also like Kershaw on this list), because Kershaw has struggled with his control at times in the past.

Clay Buchholz- I see a lot of love for Phil Hughes still (who I also think is worth nabbing) but absolutely 0 for Clay. Masterson was better out of the pen, so I think he'll stick there, if he's not dealt. Buchholz for all his struggles still struck hitters out at a solid rate and has good stuff. I could easily see him putting it together this season and pitching really well. He'll likely be a bargain come draft time too.

Max Scherzer/Brandon Morrow- I lump these two together because I think they'll both start, but could also see either or both being moved to the pen. HUGE strikeout potential, and have flashed brilliance in their limited starts.

Johnny Cueto- If he can keep the gopheritis somewhat in check he could be quite good. Ballpark hurts him, but remember how little high minors experience he had, and showed flashes of brilliance throughout last year.

Alex Gordon- Hit very well against righties, and if he steps it up against lefties could be a 30 HR .290 type hitter.

Jay Bruce- Everyone loves him, and this might be the only chance to get him. Already hitting righties well, hit over 20 HR's last year. Ballpark, top prospect billing all in his favor, could be a monster, like 3rd round talent after this year, get him now or maybe never.
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