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Will you target any of the universal '09 busts?

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Re: Will you target any of the universal '09 busts?

Postby Field » Sat Dec 27, 2008 9:41 pm

Kingctb27 wrote:Ludwick's LD% was one of the best in the league. Gotta love that. Him, either and Votto are a few guys I will be looking hard at.


I noticed this as well. The more I look at Ludwick, the more I like him. Typically, I tend to disregard the one-year wonder types, but Ludwick seems legit to me. He didn't fad in the 2nd half either. His current MDP according to RC's Analysis is 88 which seems a tad low.
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Re: Will you target any of the universal '09 busts?

Postby THE TERMINATOR » Sun Dec 28, 2008 12:29 pm

Grounded Polo wrote:It's pretty clear who are the guys with this tag. The ones who performed really well last year seemingly out of the blue. The names here would include Carlos Quentin, Dustin Pedroia, Ryan Ludwick, Cliff Lee, Edinson Volquez, and so forth.

I'm sure everyone here will draft these guys if they're a value, but really, that's a given and I'm wondering if anyone is specifically targeting the guys everyone here predicts will perform nowhere near their '08 value, preferably even reaching a little bit to make sure they get them. If so, which universal busts do you want on your team for '09 and why?


You know it's still December You know.

We can talk about those things and can give our best guess and it will be a guess but none of us really know what the ADP will be for any given player come march. We don't know if any of those players will be hipped as breakouts making them overvalue.

So you went my guess Pedroia and Ludwick clearly is going to be overvalued. Quentin might be overlooked enough to be a good value and Lee and Volquez could go eather way
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Re: Will you target any of the universal '09 busts?

Postby Grounded Polo » Sun Dec 28, 2008 2:50 pm

THE TERMINATOR wrote:
Grounded Polo wrote:It's pretty clear who are the guys with this tag. The ones who performed really well last year seemingly out of the blue. The names here would include Carlos Quentin, Dustin Pedroia, Ryan Ludwick, Cliff Lee, Edinson Volquez, and so forth.

I'm sure everyone here will draft these guys if they're a value, but really, that's a given and I'm wondering if anyone is specifically targeting the guys everyone here predicts will perform nowhere near their '08 value, preferably even reaching a little bit to make sure they get them. If so, which universal busts do you want on your team for '09 and why?


You know it's still December You know.

We can talk about those things and can give our best guess and it will be a guess but none of us really know what the ADP will be for any given player come march. We don't know if any of those players will be hipped as breakouts making them overvalue.

So you went my guess Pedroia and Ludwick clearly is going to be overvalued. Quentin might be overlooked enough to be a good value and Lee and Volquez could go eather way


People are still doing mock drafts right now and pumping out 2009 rankings, don't see the harm. You can check out mockdraftcentral and couch managers for example or just use R&C's MDP report, no need to guess anything. Some guys may change a bit because of spring training but spring training should always be irrelevant unless you're digging for late round sleepers anyway and I'm mainly bringing up top 100 draft picks whose value shouldn't be affected unless they get hurt.
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Re: Will you target any of the universal '09 busts?

Postby Kingctb27 » Mon Dec 29, 2008 4:30 pm

Field wrote:
Kingctb27 wrote:Ludwick's LD% was one of the best in the league. Gotta love that. Him, either and Votto are a few guys I will be looking hard at.


I noticed this as well. The more I look at Ludwick, the more I like him. Typically, I tend to disregard the one-year wonder types, but Ludwick seems legit to me. He didn't fad in the 2nd half either. His current MDP according to RC's Analysis is 88 which seems a tad low.

Agreed. I would be happy to have him next year as my 2nd OF. Some are known to bloom very late, and his situation isn't going to change one bit this year.

Yes, his BABIP was high, but because of the high LD%, I am not too worried about this.

A RED flag is when a players BABIP is very high and his GB rate is very high, because most ground balls turn into outs. (Of course you have to look at a players speed when looking at these ratio's)
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Re: Will you target any of the universal '09 busts?

Postby San D » Mon Dec 29, 2008 4:59 pm

Kingctb27 wrote:
Field wrote:
Kingctb27 wrote:Ludwick's LD% was one of the best in the league. Gotta love that. Him, either and Votto are a few guys I will be looking hard at.


I noticed this as well. The more I look at Ludwick, the more I like him. Typically, I tend to disregard the one-year wonder types, but Ludwick seems legit to me. He didn't fad in the 2nd half either. His current MDP according to RC's Analysis is 88 which seems a tad low.

Agreed. I would be happy to have him next year as my 2nd OF. Some are known to bloom very late, and his situation isn't going to change one bit this year.

Yes, his BABIP was high, but because of the high LD%, I am not too worried about this.

A RED flag is when a players BABIP is very high and his GB rate is very high, because most ground balls turn into outs. (Of course you have to look at a players speed when looking at these ratio's)


I will be targeting Ludwick in the 7th and 8th rounds. Except for a bad June, his stats stayed consistent all year long. He basically gave first or second round worthy numbers last year....not a bad "gamble" in the 7th or 8th. Like others are saying, his LD% is high to support his high BABIP. Maybe he's a late bloomer like Luis Gonzalez. Not a bad risk in my opinion. Even if he falters, he'll still hit 20 or so HR's with a bunch of RBI's. Heck, I'd grab him a bit earlier if I didn't read this site and realize that others are waiting on him.
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Re: Will you target any of the universal '09 busts?

Postby Curtis Pride » Tue Dec 30, 2008 8:13 pm

None of those guys are worth avoiding. They all had huge breakout seasons, but they all also had great peripherals to support them.

Lee at least has more of a track record that the one season may have been a fluke, but everyone else built on previous good seasons and had great peripherals to support the performance.

In terms of absolute 2009 busts, may I suggest:

Dice-K
Ryan Dempster
Jorge Cantu
Aubrey Huff

No way will any of them be on my team.
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Re: Will you target any of the universal '09 busts?

Postby AquaMan2342 » Tue Dec 30, 2008 8:57 pm

Curtis Pride wrote:None of those guys are worth avoiding. They all had huge breakout seasons, but they all also had great peripherals to support them.

Lee at least has more of a track record that the one season may have been a fluke, but everyone else built on previous good seasons and had great peripherals to support the performance.

In terms of absolute 2009 busts, may I suggest:

Dice-K
Ryan Dempster
Jorge Cantu
Aubrey Huff

No way will any of them be on my team.


Huff has been extensively covered within this forum and I don't see him as a bust at all. The other three will underperform their draft value though IMO.
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