Will you target any of the universal '09 busts?

[AquaMan2342]

Can anybody give evidence that Ludwick isn't capable of approaching last year's numbers? I am just curious as to whether or not there is something I may be missing.

[LostInTheSauce]

I would guess the career 3 to 1 K to BB is the number 1 indicator.

The 267 career high avg up until last year is another.

The fact that he was a nobody his whole minor or major league career.

And just the overall steaming pile of stats he has produced his entire career.

All of these things lead me to believe he is a one hit wonder. Something along the lines of a Bobby Higginson. I wouldn't take him anywhere in any round.

[Fighting Platypi]

I drafted Ludwick in the 10th round, 129th pick in a Dynasty draft just the other day. Was, and still am, happy with that value.

[bigh0rt]

I likely won't own any of those guys.

+1

[Fade2White12]

I would guess the career 3 to 1 K to BB is the number 1 indicator.

That doesn't necessarily mean anything, other than a possible small decline in BA. Here's a list of MLB players who had a worse K:BB rate last year:

Corey Hart
Matt Kemp
Ryan Braun
Stephen Drew
Evan Longoria
Alex Rios
Garrett Atkins
Ryan Howard

And he had the same rate as Alfonso Soriano, Brandon Phillips, and Jermaine Dye. Not to mention, Ludwick's was only .02 worse than Miguel Cabrera.

The 267 career high avg up until last year is another.

BA is the only category I don't expect him to repeat. However, his major league sample size is quite small. He never had regular playing time up until '07. In '04 and '05, he suffered a rash of injuries and couldn't get on track. Looking at his minor league stats, in '02 and '03 in AAA he hit .285 and .303. Although I don't see .299 again (more like .280), a dip in average doesn't mean he'll be a poor draft.

The fact that he was a nobody his whole minor or major league career.

That's just incorrect. Ludwick was a very highly touted prospect. He was a second round draft pick, rated the third best prospect in the A's organization in '01, and then again in '03 as the Ranger's 7th best.

[AquaMan2342]

I likely won't own any of those guys.

+1

+2 but I can see some decent value in a few of them.

[Snakes Gould]

+3

Normally I don't draft any of those types of guys, but I believe Quentin and Lee are the real deal and would be willing to take them.

cliff lee is the real deal eh?

[StlSluggers]

Can anybody give evidence that Ludwick isn't capable of approaching last year's numbers? I am just curious as to whether or not there is something I may be missing.

He probably won't repeat, but if you believe he can maintain that extraordinary LD rate, then the BABIP is legit.

Otherwise, look out below!

[aardvarks]

I'm staying away from Quentin in all of my drafts this yr. I don't trust wrist injuries. I don't like taking chances in the 2nd rd.

[abrage22]

+3

Normally I don't draft any of those types of guys, but I believe Quentin and Lee are the real deal and would be willing to take them.

cliff lee is the real deal eh?

i think he is