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Will you target any of the universal '09 busts?

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Re: Will you target any of the universal '09 busts?

Postby AquaMan2342 » Tue Dec 23, 2008 11:49 pm

Can anybody give evidence that Ludwick isn't capable of approaching last year's numbers? I am just curious as to whether or not there is something I may be missing.
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Re: Will you target any of the universal '09 busts?

Postby LostInTheSauce » Wed Dec 24, 2008 1:03 am

I would guess the career 3 to 1 K to BB is the number 1 indicator.

The 267 career high avg up until last year is another.

The fact that he was a nobody his whole minor or major league career.

And just the overall steaming pile of stats he has produced his entire career.

All of these things lead me to believe he is a one hit wonder. Something along the lines of a Bobby Higginson. I wouldn't take him anywhere in any round.
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Re: Will you target any of the universal '09 busts?

Postby Fighting Platypi » Wed Dec 24, 2008 1:16 am

I drafted Ludwick in the 10th round, 129th pick in a Dynasty draft just the other day. Was, and still am, happy with that value.
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Re: Will you target any of the universal '09 busts?

Postby bigh0rt » Wed Dec 24, 2008 2:31 am

J35J wrote:I likely won't own any of those guys.

+1
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Re: Will you target any of the universal '09 busts?

Postby Fade2White12 » Wed Dec 24, 2008 10:53 am

LostInTheSauce wrote:I would guess the career 3 to 1 K to BB is the number 1 indicator.


That doesn't necessarily mean anything, other than a possible small decline in BA. Here's a list of MLB players who had a worse K:BB rate last year:

Corey Hart
Matt Kemp
Ryan Braun
Stephen Drew
Evan Longoria
Alex Rios
Garrett Atkins
Ryan Howard

And he had the same rate as Alfonso Soriano, Brandon Phillips, and Jermaine Dye. Not to mention, Ludwick's was only .02 worse than Miguel Cabrera.

LostInTheSauce wrote:The 267 career high avg up until last year is another.


BA is the only category I don't expect him to repeat. However, his major league sample size is quite small. He never had regular playing time up until '07. In '04 and '05, he suffered a rash of injuries and couldn't get on track. Looking at his minor league stats, in '02 and '03 in AAA he hit .285 and .303. Although I don't see .299 again (more like .280), a dip in average doesn't mean he'll be a poor draft.

LostInTheSauce wrote:The fact that he was a nobody his whole minor or major league career.


That's just incorrect. Ludwick was a very highly touted prospect. He was a second round draft pick, rated the third best prospect in the A's organization in '01, and then again in '03 as the Ranger's 7th best.
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Re: Will you target any of the universal '09 busts?

Postby AquaMan2342 » Wed Dec 24, 2008 10:57 am

bigh0rt wrote:
J35J wrote:I likely won't own any of those guys.

+1


+2 but I can see some decent value in a few of them.
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Re: Will you target any of the universal '09 busts?

Postby Snakes Gould » Wed Dec 24, 2008 3:04 pm

+3


abrage22 wrote:Normally I don't draft any of those types of guys, but I believe Quentin and Lee are the real deal and would be willing to take them.


cliff lee is the real deal eh?
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Re: Will you target any of the universal '09 busts?

Postby StlSluggers » Wed Dec 24, 2008 3:34 pm

AquaMan2342 wrote:Can anybody give evidence that Ludwick isn't capable of approaching last year's numbers? I am just curious as to whether or not there is something I may be missing.

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He probably won't repeat, but if you believe he can maintain that extraordinary LD rate, then the BABIP is legit.

Otherwise, look out below! :-o
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Re: Will you target any of the universal '09 busts?

Postby aardvarks » Wed Dec 24, 2008 5:39 pm

I'm staying away from Quentin in all of my drafts this yr. I don't trust wrist injuries. I don't like taking chances in the 2nd rd.
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Re: Will you target any of the universal '09 busts?

Postby abrage22 » Wed Dec 24, 2008 5:45 pm

Snakes Gould wrote:+3


abrage22 wrote:Normally I don't draft any of those types of guys, but I believe Quentin and Lee are the real deal and would be willing to take them.


cliff lee is the real deal eh?

i think he is :-?
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