AquaMan2342 wrote:1. He won't go 18-5 again next year. I'll sig bet anybody here he doesn't win 18 games edit: this season.
2. I just want to see at least one more year of dominance before I anoint him a top 2 or 3 SP. I know I'll get a lot of crap for that, but the guys I have listed in front of him have done it at a high level for a long time. He is fifth because I feel like his talent outweighs the experience of those listed behind him. It's something I feel is important in evaluating a pitcher for fantasy because often times one good season leads to extreme overdrafting (Bedard). Not comparing the two, but the line of thinking fits. Not to mention the workload on his arm at least causes partial concern in my mind, regardless of how much of a "freak" or whatever he is.
I'm glad I'm not the only one who also moved him down a bit. I did so for the same concerns AquaMan specifys. Timmy is a tremendous talent but he carries a little more risk than the guys I placed above him. I tend to be conservative in taking a pitcher near the top of my draft. I place Lincecum 6th as I see the 08 workload possibly costing a few starts and he was fortunate to win so many on that team. R&C asked for projections as to why TL might be lower so I'll provide mine with my top 10:
1 - Johan 18-7 / 206K in 221 IP / 3.22 / 1.15
2 - Hamels 16-9 / 195K in 211 IP / 3.50 / 1.20
3 - Webb 16-8 / 181K in 217 IP / 3.47 / 1.23 (higher than most here)
4 - CC 18-9 / 193K in 220 IP / 3.76 / 1.22
5 - Peavy 14-10 / 210K in 206 IP / 3.20 / 1.14
6 - Lincecum 13-10 / 199K in 180 IP / 3.43 / 1.26
7 - Halladay 15-8 / 171K in 222 IP / 3.69 / 1.21
8 - Felix 14-12 / 183K in 204 IP / 3.66 / 1.27 (I see a breakout - I realize I'm on an island here - I will wait to draft much later)
9 - Lackey 15-10 / 152K in 192 IP / 3.73 / 1.23
10 - Haren 14-11 / 178K in 200 IP / 3.82 / 1.24
*edited to include Haren's rank #