DEEEEP squad...who to keep? WHIR

[hambone1818]

Hi everyone. I have some tough decisions this offseason, as my squad is extremely deep on offense, thin on pitching, and I have to parse it down to 7 keepers. This is a h-2-h, 5x5, 10-team league, and here are my options (also, I always try to make one or two 3-for-1 trades in the offseason, going after top guys on teams that are thin with keepers. If there are guys you'd trade away--most likely becuase their perceived value is higher than their actual value--please throw an * next to their name):

C - Soto
1B - Howard
2B - Kinsler
3B/1B - Miggy
OF - Sizemore
OF - Hamilton
OF - Manny
OF - Vlad
OF - J. Upton

SP - Hamels
SP - Beckett
SP - Lester

(one note: my pitching is thin, I know this. I like to keep two pitchers, so I could either go Hamels-Beckett or trade one of them--along with some bats--for an upgrade)

Thanks guys...and please leave a link, I'll help in return.

[IrishDrunk]

1B - Howard
3B/1B - Miggy
OF - Sizemore
OF - Hamilton
OF - Manny
SP - Hamels
SP - Beckett

Your thoughts?

http://www.fantasybaseballcafe.com/forums/viewtopic.php?t=364800

[felixthecat011]

At face vlaue I would keep the following:

C - Soto
1B - Howard
2B - Kinsler
3B/1B - Miggy
OF - Sizemore
OF - Hamilton
OF - Manny
OF - Vlad
OF - J. Upton

SP - Hamels
SP - Beckett
SP - Lester

Other things to look qt (that didn't factor into my choices) are what the other teams have on their rosters and who you think they might keep and make available and your draft position.

[MrE]

C - Soto
1B - Howard
2B - Kinsler
3B/1B - Miggy
OF - Sizemore
OF - Hamilton
OF - Manny
OF - Vlad
OF - J. Upton

SP - Hamels
SP - Beckett
SP - Lester

Looking at your list, the guys you have to keep:

Howard, Kinsler, Miggy, Sizemore, Hamilton

The rest in order of how I would rank them:
1) Vlad
2) Hamels or Manny
3) Manny
4) Beckett
5) Soto
6) Lester
7) Upton

Realistically, they all are fantastic keepers. In a 10 team league, I think you can drop Lester and Upton and be able to pick them on one of your first 2-3 picks if you have to have them. I know you want to keep 2 pitchers, but I do not think you can realistically NOT keep 1 of Vlad or Manny. I prefer Vlad. I would slot Hamels in as the 7th keeper. I don't feel that bad not keeping Beckett because while he could be a top 5 SP, he just as well could finish 45th. He seems to be an every other year guy, so he might bounce back this year. We all know he can be the most dominant pitcher in the game (see playoffs 2 years ago).

If I could make a 3 for 1 trade or a 2 for 1, I believe I would include Beckett, Soto, and Manny and target one of the elite pitchers: See Johan/Lincecum/Webb. I would also want at least a 1st to 3rd round draft pick included. I think Soto has a lot of trade value this year. Beckett is held in high regard, and ManRam had a torrid second half. If you can't find a taker for that package, I would flip Vlad out with Manny, and see the interest in Upton.

Thanks for the help.
Your team is amazing. Your IF is set outside of SS, so I would solidify that offense while taking a pitcher every other round. My guess is that in a 10 team league, depth in the SP department is readily available in the first month or two, and is generally easier to come by then deeper leagues. I would plan accordingly. Your offense could easily be the best in the league. There is no reason NOT to make it the best in the league for a second rate pitcher if push-comes to shove.

[hambone1818]

Thanks for the replies, guys. Mr. E, hell of an analysis, I appreciate you going into detail like that.

I guess the three posted lists are where I'm having a big problem: the first few slots are taken up by Sizemore, Howard and Hamilton. However, from there there's just no consensus. Two have Kinsler high up, the third doesn't include him. Same thing with Miggy. Manny is on one of the lists, as is Vlad, Soto is discussed, and through all this none of you picked Upton and yet he's probably my favorite player in baseball (and I'm a Red Sox fan) and there's just no way I'm letting him into the draft because he'll be snagged in the 1st round (this league is very prospect-driven...there isn't a ton of trading, and there isn't a cap on years you can keep a player, so young guys get way, way overvalued since you'll most likely have a Ryan Braun or Evan Longoria for a decade if you so choose).

So how about this: I'm going to keep these guys, without question:

Howard
Kinsler
Hamilton
Sizemore
Upton

I refuse to trade any of them, and consider them absolute locks to be kept. So that leaves:

Soto
Miggy
Manny
Vlad

Hamels
Beckett
Lester
K-Rod (forgot about him, though I hate closers as keepers)

Who would be your final two, and why? Thanks again guys!

[BALCO All-Stars]

In a 10 team league, I think you should throw Justin Upton back in the pool, but you know your league best. IMO, I'd go:

Howard, Kinsler, Cabrera, Sizemore, Hamilton: They are all 1st or 2nd round picks so they are locks as keepers.

Then, I'd rate them:
1. Hamels (I like locking up a top 10 SP with top 5 upside)
2. Manny (how many OF can you start)?
3. Vlad (he's getting up there in age)
4. Soto
5. Beckett (don't trust him enough)
6. Lester
7. Justin Upton

Hope this helps!

[MrE]

You absolutely have to keep Miguel Cabrera. He started off last year a bit slow, but he finished strong. His numbers are almost a lock at .300/30/110 with 100 runs, and they can go as high as .330/40/130 with 120 runs. He is young. He is a stud. He may be moving to first after this year, but he is a top 10 player every year. KEEP HIM!!!!

As for the rest, it comes down to Vlad and Hamels for me. All things being equal, I personally prefer Vlad because he is an eternal .300/30/100 guy, but its tough to let go of a fireballing, young, ace lefty in Hamels. Vlad is aging, and you can definitely see a decline in performance. This could downgrade him a bit, but I still see him as a top 50 player (if not top 30). In a keeper league, I can say that it is a toss up for me, and in your situation of already having the OF solidified (Upton/Hamilton/Sizemore), I would probably keep Hamels. Still, I think that immediately means you are dropping Vlad into that 2 or 3 for 1 trade.

It isn't that I do not like Upton, and I definitely buy his long term value. I just think that his production this year does not warrant keeping him over the above mentioned on my list. I think he is probably two years away from his prime, but I can see it being a spectacular run when he does hit it. If he is your man, keep him. You would kill yoruself for years if he turned out to be a stud sooner rather than later .

[GiantsFan14]

Hi everyone. I have some tough decisions this offseason, as my squad is extremely deep on offense, thin on pitching, and I have to parse it down to 7 keepers. This is a h-2-h, 5x5, 10-team league, and here are my options (also, I always try to make one or two 3-for-1 trades in the offseason, going after top guys on teams that are thin with keepers. If there are guys you'd trade away--most likely becuase their perceived value is higher than their actual value--please throw an * next to their name):

C - Soto
1B - Howard
2B - Kinsler
3B/1B - Miggy
OF - Sizemore
OF - Hamilton
OF - Manny
OF - Vlad *
OF - J. Upton

SP - Hamels
SP - Beckett*
SP - Lester*

(one note: my pitching is thin, I know this. I like to keep two pitchers, so I could either go Hamels-Beckett or trade one of them--along with some bats--for an upgrade)

Thanks guys...and please leave a link, I'll help in return.

[The Artful Dodger]

1B - Howard
2B - Kinsler
3B/1B - Miggy
OF - Sizemore
OF - Hamilton
OF - Manny

SP - Hamels

6 of the 7 are no-brainers. Manny is the pick of the litter from the rest IMO.

[fast dogs]

Thanks for the replies, guys. Mr. E, hell of an analysis, I appreciate you going into detail like that.

I guess the three posted lists are where I'm having a big problem: the first few slots are taken up by Sizemore, Howard and Hamilton. However, from there there's just no consensus. Two have Kinsler high up, the third doesn't include him. Same thing with Miggy. Manny is on one of the lists, as is Vlad, Soto is discussed, and through all this none of you picked Upton and yet he's probably my favorite player in baseball (and I'm a Red Sox fan) and there's just no way I'm letting him into the draft because he'll be snagged in the 1st round (this league is very prospect-driven...there isn't a ton of trading, and there isn't a cap on years you can keep a player, so young guys get way, way overvalued since you'll most likely have a Ryan Braun or Evan Longoria for a decade if you so choose).

So how about this: I'm going to keep these guys, without question:

Howard
Kinsler
Hamilton
Sizemore
Upton

I refuse to trade any of them, and consider them absolute locks to be kept. So that leaves:

Soto
Miggy
Manny
Vlad

Hamels
Beckett
Lester
K-Rod (forgot about him, though I hate closers as keepers)

Who would be your final two, and why? Thanks again guys!

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if you can't be talked out of Upton your last 2 are very easy. Hamels should be your only P kept reguardless. Most people feel J Upton is a year away from really putting up big #'s. However if you don't keep him you'll probably never get him back. So I'd say your 09 roster is slightly weaker than it possibly could be, but still is going to be 1 of the top 2 in your league. Almost every mock I've seen has Upton going 3-4 rounds after Vlad or Manny, but nearly everyone would agree he's the 1 you'll want in '10 & beyond