This thread contains comments on Michael Marinakis's Sleeper "Sleeper of the Week - Ubaldo Jimenez", which was featured in the Cafe's Sleepers section on December 19, 2008. The full article can be read here.
nicely done...but it is exactly this type of pitcher that i avoid in my 13 team NL only league..he has the potential to be a bit above average in relation to his auction price, BUT he also has the potential to doom your whip and ERA to middle of the pack w/200+ IP of 4.30 ERA and even more damaging 1.50 whip..his professional best is only 1.43..his k/BB ratio is that of a subpar SP .. he did show good improvement in the 2nd half but his first half 4.71 ERA and 1.59 whip put many owners too deep in the hole in those cats..this risk is too much in relation to his probable auction price or round selection...and if he gets off to a slow start again, he will be untradeable ..let some other owner take the risk..avoid. also his hr/FB % rate in 08 of 7% is probably unsustainable as is his 2nd half hit %
stevethumb wrote:nicely done...but it is exactly this type of pitcher that i avoid in my 13 team NL only league..he has the potential to be a bit above average in relation to his auction price, BUT he also has the potential to doom your whip and ERA to middle of the pack w/200+ IP of 4.30 ERA and even more damaging 1.50 whip..his professional best is only 1.43..his k/BB ratio is that of a subpar SP .. he did show good improvement in the 2nd half but his first half 4.71 ERA and 1.59 whip put many owners too deep in the hole in those cats..this risk is too much in relation to his probable auction price or round selection...and if he gets off to a slow start again, he will be untradeable ..let some other owner take the risk..avoid. also his hr/FB % rate in 08 of 7% is probably unsustainable as is his 2nd half hit %
i'm somewhat curious what pitchers you take in the late rounds of a 13 NL only league that don't have the potential hurt your ERA and WHIP (obviously you should not be giving them 200 innings if they are struggling and will end up "doom your whip and ERA to middle of the pack"). there's almost always risk in late round picks, that's why they're late round picks. the point to find late round picks which you think will perform higher than their draft slot. obviously you can disagree with me and think that he's due to implode, but to say that you don't make risky picks in the final rounds of a draft is silly.
stevethumb wrote:nicely done...but it is exactly this type of pitcher that i avoid in my 13 team NL only league..he has the potential to be a bit above average in relation to his auction price, BUT he also has the potential to doom your whip and ERA to middle of the pack w/200+ IP of 4.30 ERA and even more damaging 1.50 whip..his professional best is only 1.43..his k/BB ratio is that of a subpar SP .. he did show good improvement in the 2nd half but his first half 4.71 ERA and 1.59 whip put many owners too deep in the hole in those cats..this risk is too much in relation to his probable auction price or round selection...and if he gets off to a slow start again, he will be untradeable ..let some other owner take the risk..avoid. also his hr/FB % rate in 08 of 7% is probably unsustainable as is his 2nd half hit %
i'm somewhat curious what pitchers you take in the late rounds of a 13 NL only league that don't have the potential hurt your ERA and WHIP (obviously you should not be giving them 200 innings if they are struggling and will end up "doom your whip and ERA to middle of the pack"). there's almost always risk in late round picks, that's why they're late round picks. the point to find late round picks which you think will perform higher than their draft slot. obviously you can disagree with me and think that he's due to implode, but to say that you don't make risky picks in the final rounds of a draft is silly.
I agree completely. Ubaldo fits the exact description of a sleeper. He's a guy not on many radars, and he has the ability to take the next step. For his career, he's 10-7 with a 3.45 ERA at home, and 6-9 with a 4.76 ERA on the road, which makes no sense. If his arm holds out, he has the potential to post something like 15-11, 3.64 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 200 K. If I can get a 200 strikeout guy deep into an NL-only league, I'm happy.
stevethumb wrote:nicely done...but it is exactly this type of pitcher that i avoid in my 13 team NL only league..he has the potential to be a bit above average in relation to his auction price, BUT he also has the potential to doom your whip and ERA to middle of the pack w/200+ IP of 4.30 ERA and even more damaging 1.50 whip..his professional best is only 1.43..his k/BB ratio is that of a subpar SP .. he did show good improvement in the 2nd half but his first half 4.71 ERA and 1.59 whip put many owners too deep in the hole in those cats..this risk is too much in relation to his probable auction price or round selection...and if he gets off to a slow start again, he will be untradeable ..let some other owner take the risk..avoid. also his hr/FB % rate in 08 of 7% is probably unsustainable as is his 2nd half hit %
i'm somewhat curious what pitchers you take in the late rounds of a 13 NL only league that don't have the potential hurt your ERA and WHIP (obviously you should not be giving them 200 innings if they are struggling and will end up "doom your whip and ERA to middle of the pack"). there's almost always risk in late round picks, that's why they're late round picks. the point to find late round picks which you think will perform higher than their draft slot. obviously you can disagree with me and think that he's due to implode, but to say that you don't make risky picks in the final rounds of a draft is silly.
that's my point..ubaldo is NOT an end game $1 pick or late round flyer in all but the shallowest of formats..in the recent cafe mock auction (16 teams) he went for $5..in the couchmanagers ADP he is 171 and the 48th listed SP..a current 10 team NL only has him going in the 10th rd..the committment for that round or $ is too risky .. and kicking to the curb someone that you paid $5 or drafted in the 10th rd of a 10 team NL only is expensive...late round flyers in truly deep leagues from last year would have been wellemeyer and nolasco (successes) and germano, fogg, hill (shawn) (failures) but for $1 or last rd the risk is worth it for those guys but not for $5 or the 10th rd for ubaldo..that's my point and not whether he is any good or not..i lean to not but he did show 2nd half improvement..he is not worth the risk relative to his draft position and price IMO
stevethumb wrote:nicely done...but it is exactly this type of pitcher that i avoid in my 13 team NL only league..he has the potential to be a bit above average in relation to his auction price, BUT he also has the potential to doom your whip and ERA to middle of the pack w/200+ IP of 4.30 ERA and even more damaging 1.50 whip..his professional best is only 1.43..his k/BB ratio is that of a subpar SP .. he did show good improvement in the 2nd half but his first half 4.71 ERA and 1.59 whip put many owners too deep in the hole in those cats..this risk is too much in relation to his probable auction price or round selection...and if he gets off to a slow start again, he will be untradeable ..let some other owner take the risk..avoid. also his hr/FB % rate in 08 of 7% is probably unsustainable as is his 2nd half hit %
i'm somewhat curious what pitchers you take in the late rounds of a 13 NL only league that don't have the potential hurt your ERA and WHIP (obviously you should not be giving them 200 innings if they are struggling and will end up "doom your whip and ERA to middle of the pack"). there's almost always risk in late round picks, that's why they're late round picks. the point to find late round picks which you think will perform higher than their draft slot. obviously you can disagree with me and think that he's due to implode, but to say that you don't make risky picks in the final rounds of a draft is silly.
I agree completely. Ubaldo fits the exact description of a sleeper. He's a guy not on many radars, and he has the ability to take the next step. For his career, he's 10-7 with a 3.45 ERA at home, and 6-9 with a 4.76 ERA on the road, which makes no sense. If his arm holds out, he has the potential to post something like 15-11, 3.64 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 200 K. If I can get a 200 strikeout guy deep into an NL-only league, I'm happy.
Nice job on the article.
i guess we will have to disagree on the definition of a sleeper..if his current ADP on couchmanagers is 171 and he is listed as the 48th SP w/the likes of josh johnson and adam wainwright around him, i will take johnson and wainwright all the time..and there is no way he gets 200 Ks..at his current k/9, he would have to pitch 231 innings to reach 200 Ks..IMO jimenez is too risky for the price and position that he will go
obviously, if people are going to be reaching for him, you shouldn't reach further. of course there will be drafts where he is drafted too early and you don't get a shot at him. in the cafe mock, however, i got him at 205 overall (the 55th pitcher) and that is great value imo. its probably going to depend a lot on where the major sites rank him, as people follow those rankings way too much during their drafts. if he does fall to the later rounds though, i think hes a great risk to take for his strikeout potential.
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by WebHamster » Fri Dec 19, 2008 9:48 pm 
