Received your Baseball Forecaster?

[Broncmet724]

But not #1 type skills, this year. He won't be better than Lincecum. Eventually, maybe. Now, no.

[San D]

Huh?

Those are Shandler's rankings in the book. In my experience, you can not go by his rankings. However, his insights leading to those rankings are invaluable as far as trends in different rate type stats. Each player is layed out nicely so the important trend stats for previous years are easy to look at.

So you pay money for his book so that you have to decipher the good information out of it?

I like to balance my own fantasy baseball knowledge with the number trends. Shandler lays out each player's stats nicely and gives a blurb of what the stats mean for each player. Everything you want to know about a player is easily accessible, and you don't have to get pieces of info from various websites for total research. So, yes I buy the book to decipher the good info out of it, but it is easy to decipher. I generally buy the Forecaster and the Fantasy Baseball Guide (my favorite mag), bounce them against the instincts I develop in the Cafe and from watching baseball in general, peruse the J35J spreadsheet when I'm bored at work, and I'm good to go.

In my opinion, Shandler leans his rankings too far on what the numbers analysis tells him. Of course, that's his M.O. For my own rankings, I use the number trends as one of various inputs. That's not too say that Shandler goes solely on numbers. For example, he's bullish on Corey Hart in 2009 in spite of various stat regressions. He does show that he was unlucky in the second half with HR/FB percentage though. Overall, it's just a very good product if used right, and it helps a lot that it's one of the first books/mags to come out every year.

[San D]

P.S. I don't work for Shandler or BaseballHQ.

[pjalst]

Bottom line, it's a tool. Like a carpenter with a saw, use it right and you come out with a masterpiece. use it incorrectely and you come out with crap. SAndler is not the Know-it-all on predictions. Sandler's just providing information, do with it what you like. Don't let him draft your team.

[noseeum]

Joba number one? Lincecum not in top ten? Cain not in top 45?

Odd but ballsy.

Are you sorting by BPV? You need to sort by dollar value. Yes, he's predicting Joba to have the highest BPV of starting pitchers, but in his little blurb he highlights that there's a question of whether he will be a reliever or a starter the entire time. My guess is the BPV is slightly elevated to account for a month's worth of relief pitching.

BPV is a pure evaluation of skill, but not a projection of results. Top relievers always have the highest BPVs of course, but their dollar value returned is less than top starting pitchers. Toss Santana in the closer rule and who knows what BPV he'd get!

If you sort by dollar value for $12 (12 AL or NL only) or $15 (15 team mixed) columns, Sabathia and Santana are tied for first at $28, and Lincecum is number 5. Joba goes down to number 10.

[San D]

Joba number one? Lincecum not in top ten? Cain not in top 45?

Odd but ballsy.

Are you sorting by BPV? You need to sort by dollar value. Yes, he's predicting Joba to have the highest BPV of starting pitchers, but in his little blurb he highlights that there's a question of whether he will be a reliever or a starter the entire time. My guess is the BPV is slightly elevated to account for a month's worth of relief pitching.

BPV is a pure evaluation of skill, but not a projection of results. Top relievers always have the highest BPVs of course, but their dollar value returned is less than top starting pitchers. Toss Santana in the closer rule and who knows what BPV he'd get!

If you sort by dollar value for $12 (12 AL or NL only) or $15 (15 team mixed) columns, Sabathia and Santana are tied for first at $28, and Lincecum is number 5. Joba goes down to number 10.

In the back of the book under rankings, Joba is #1 in the Rotisserie Auction Draft for $29, the first SP picked in the snake draft, and #1 in the Position Scarcity chart which lists dollar values as well. Also, under R$ for his player capsule, it says $29.

[noseeum]

Joba number one? Lincecum not in top ten? Cain not in top 45?

Odd but ballsy.

Are you sorting by BPV? You need to sort by dollar value. Yes, he's predicting Joba to have the highest BPV of starting pitchers, but in his little blurb he highlights that there's a question of whether he will be a reliever or a starter the entire time. My guess is the BPV is slightly elevated to account for a month's worth of relief pitching.

BPV is a pure evaluation of skill, but not a projection of results. Top relievers always have the highest BPVs of course, but their dollar value returned is less than top starting pitchers. Toss Santana in the closer rule and who knows what BPV he'd get!

If you sort by dollar value for $12 (12 AL or NL only) or $15 (15 team mixed) columns, Sabathia and Santana are tied for first at $28, and Lincecum is number 5. Joba goes down to number 10.

In the back of the book under rankings, Joba is #1 in the Rotisserie Auction Draft for $29, the first SP picked in the snake draft, and #1 in the Position Scarcity chart which lists dollar values as well. Also, under R$ for his player capsule, it says $29.

I don't have the book yet. I'm just sorting the projections on baseballhq.com. That's weird that things would change that much. Maybe because of the Sabathia, Burnett signings he's increased the odds of him being in the bullpen?