Received your Baseball Forecaster? - Fantasy Baseball Cafe 2014 Fantasy Baseball Cafe
100% Deposit Bonus for Cafe Members!

Return to Baseball Leftovers

Received your Baseball Forecaster?

Moderator: Baseball Moderators

Re: Received your Baseball Forecaster?

Postby Broncmet724 » Thu Dec 25, 2008 11:01 am

But not #1 type skills, this year. He won't be better than Lincecum. Eventually, maybe. Now, no.
Image
Broncmet724 Beginner
Major League Manager
Major League Manager

User avatar

Posts: 1754
Joined: 8 Apr 2003
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: On the outside looking in

Re: Received your Baseball Forecaster?

Postby San D » Thu Dec 25, 2008 12:58 pm

J35J wrote:
San D wrote:
J35J wrote:
Huh?


Those are Shandler's rankings in the book. In my experience, you can not go by his rankings. However, his insights leading to those rankings are invaluable as far as trends in different rate type stats. Each player is layed out nicely so the important trend stats for previous years are easy to look at.


So you pay money for his book so that you have to decipher the good information out of it?


I like to balance my own fantasy baseball knowledge with the number trends. Shandler lays out each player's stats nicely and gives a blurb of what the stats mean for each player. Everything you want to know about a player is easily accessible, and you don't have to get pieces of info from various websites for total research. So, yes I buy the book to decipher the good info out of it, but it is easy to decipher. I generally buy the Forecaster and the Fantasy Baseball Guide (my favorite mag), bounce them against the instincts I develop in the Cafe and from watching baseball in general, peruse the J35J spreadsheet when I'm bored at work, and I'm good to go.

In my opinion, Shandler leans his rankings too far on what the numbers analysis tells him. Of course, that's his M.O. For my own rankings, I use the number trends as one of various inputs. That's not too say that Shandler goes solely on numbers. For example, he's bullish on Corey Hart in 2009 in spite of various stat regressions. He does show that he was unlucky in the second half with HR/FB percentage though. Overall, it's just a very good product if used right, and it helps a lot that it's one of the first books/mags to come out every year. ;-D
San D
Major League Manager
Major League Manager

User avatar
CafeholicMock(ing) Drafter
Posts: 1499
Joined: 29 Aug 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: Received your Baseball Forecaster?

Postby San D » Thu Dec 25, 2008 1:00 pm

P.S. I don't work for Shandler or BaseballHQ. :-b
San D
Major League Manager
Major League Manager

User avatar
CafeholicMock(ing) Drafter
Posts: 1499
Joined: 29 Aug 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: Received your Baseball Forecaster?

Postby pjalst » Thu Dec 25, 2008 4:00 pm

Bottom line, it's a tool. Like a carpenter with a saw, use it right and you come out with a masterpiece. use it incorrectely and you come out with crap. SAndler is not the Know-it-all on predictions. Sandler's just providing information, do with it what you like. Don't let him draft your team.
pjalst
Major League Manager
Major League Manager

User avatar

Posts: 1352
(Past Year: 67)
Joined: 3 Mar 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Niskayuna, NY

Re: Received your Baseball Forecaster?

Postby noseeum » Sat Dec 27, 2008 2:56 pm

SignGuy wrote:Joba number one? Lincecum not in top ten? Cain not in top 45?

Odd but ballsy.


Are you sorting by BPV? You need to sort by dollar value. Yes, he's predicting Joba to have the highest BPV of starting pitchers, but in his little blurb he highlights that there's a question of whether he will be a reliever or a starter the entire time. My guess is the BPV is slightly elevated to account for a month's worth of relief pitching.

BPV is a pure evaluation of skill, but not a projection of results. Top relievers always have the highest BPVs of course, but their dollar value returned is less than top starting pitchers. Toss Santana in the closer rule and who knows what BPV he'd get!

If you sort by dollar value for $12 (12 AL or NL only) or $15 (15 team mixed) columns, Sabathia and Santana are tied for first at $28, and Lincecum is number 5. Joba goes down to number 10.
noseeum
Major League Manager
Major League Manager


Posts: 1697
Joined: 1 Mar 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: Received your Baseball Forecaster?

Postby San D » Sat Dec 27, 2008 3:03 pm

noseeum wrote:
SignGuy wrote:Joba number one? Lincecum not in top ten? Cain not in top 45?

Odd but ballsy.


Are you sorting by BPV? You need to sort by dollar value. Yes, he's predicting Joba to have the highest BPV of starting pitchers, but in his little blurb he highlights that there's a question of whether he will be a reliever or a starter the entire time. My guess is the BPV is slightly elevated to account for a month's worth of relief pitching.

BPV is a pure evaluation of skill, but not a projection of results. Top relievers always have the highest BPVs of course, but their dollar value returned is less than top starting pitchers. Toss Santana in the closer rule and who knows what BPV he'd get!

If you sort by dollar value for $12 (12 AL or NL only) or $15 (15 team mixed) columns, Sabathia and Santana are tied for first at $28, and Lincecum is number 5. Joba goes down to number 10.


In the back of the book under rankings, Joba is #1 in the Rotisserie Auction Draft for $29, the first SP picked in the snake draft, and #1 in the Position Scarcity chart which lists dollar values as well. Also, under R$ for his player capsule, it says $29.
San D
Major League Manager
Major League Manager

User avatar
CafeholicMock(ing) Drafter
Posts: 1499
Joined: 29 Aug 2004
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: Received your Baseball Forecaster?

Postby noseeum » Sat Dec 27, 2008 3:15 pm

San D wrote:
noseeum wrote:
SignGuy wrote:Joba number one? Lincecum not in top ten? Cain not in top 45?

Odd but ballsy.


Are you sorting by BPV? You need to sort by dollar value. Yes, he's predicting Joba to have the highest BPV of starting pitchers, but in his little blurb he highlights that there's a question of whether he will be a reliever or a starter the entire time. My guess is the BPV is slightly elevated to account for a month's worth of relief pitching.

BPV is a pure evaluation of skill, but not a projection of results. Top relievers always have the highest BPVs of course, but their dollar value returned is less than top starting pitchers. Toss Santana in the closer rule and who knows what BPV he'd get!

If you sort by dollar value for $12 (12 AL or NL only) or $15 (15 team mixed) columns, Sabathia and Santana are tied for first at $28, and Lincecum is number 5. Joba goes down to number 10.


In the back of the book under rankings, Joba is #1 in the Rotisserie Auction Draft for $29, the first SP picked in the snake draft, and #1 in the Position Scarcity chart which lists dollar values as well. Also, under R$ for his player capsule, it says $29.


I don't have the book yet. I'm just sorting the projections on baseballhq.com. That's weird that things would change that much. Maybe because of the Sabathia, Burnett signings he's increased the odds of him being in the bullpen?
noseeum
Major League Manager
Major League Manager


Posts: 1697
Joined: 1 Mar 2005
Home Cafe: Baseball

Previous

Return to Baseball Leftovers

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: buiviopaufamp, cardsfan and 8 guests

Forums Articles & Tips Sleepers Rankings Leagues


Today's Games
Thursday, Jul. 31
(All times are EST, weather icons show forecast for game time)

Chi White Sox at Detroit
(1:08 pm)
Colorado at Chi Cubs
(2:20 pm)
St. Louis at San Diego
(3:40 pm)
Philadelphia at Washington
(7:05 pm)
Seattle at Cleveland
(7:05 pm)
LA Angels at Baltimore
(7:05 pm)
Cincinnati at Miami
(7:10 pm)
indoors
Toronto at Houston
(8:10 pm)
Minnesota at Kansas City
(8:10 pm)
Pittsburgh at Arizona
(9:40 pm)
Atlanta at LA Dodgers
(10:10 pm)

  • Fantasy Baseball
  • Article Submissions
  • Privacy Statement
  • Site Survey 
  • Contact