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MDC Experts Draft results

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Re: MDC Experts Draft results

Postby Kraftwerk » Wed Dec 17, 2008 3:51 pm

Interesting comments guys. I thought you may like the thoughts of the guy drafting from the #5 spot. (i.e. Mike - TheFantasyMan).


http://www.fantasybaseballexpress.com

It's half way down on the front page. In depth reasonings of his picks. A good insight.
Last edited by Kraftwerk on Thu Dec 18, 2008 12:59 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: MDC Experts Draft results

Postby bigh0rt » Wed Dec 17, 2008 4:52 pm

I hope this league has CI and Util, because 3 of his first 4 picks are 1B.
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Re: MDC Experts Draft results

Postby bigh0rt » Wed Dec 17, 2008 4:52 pm

Also, Derek Jeter in Round 6 is a travesty. I think it was KC, who earlier this week was asking me if it was too early to take him in Round 9 or 10.
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Re: MDC Experts Draft results

Postby Ender » Wed Dec 17, 2008 5:17 pm

Quentin in the 3rd round is the worst pick of his draft in my opinion. Guy has had one good year and has been hurt each of the last 3 or 4 years. No way in heck I'm taking that in the 3rd.
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Re: MDC Experts Draft results

Postby kimchi_chigae » Wed Dec 17, 2008 6:30 pm

bigh0rt wrote:Also, Derek Jeter in Round 6 is a travesty. I think it was KC, who earlier this week was asking me if it was too early to take him in Round 9 or 10.


No, I never asked you if Derek Jeter was a transvestite. :-t
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Re: MDC Experts Draft results

Postby TheFantasyMan » Thu Dec 18, 2008 1:34 pm

You guys are great!! Why so hateful? It's only a fantasy baseball draft!
Actually, I know how hardcore it is and as a fan of the Cafe for quite some time, I figured I'd weigh in and try to defend myself a bit since I love a solid fantasy baseball draft discussion. That's the link to my analysis that was posted above.

Now, I was sifting through some of the comments you guys made and most are solid observations. I definetely wouldn't have picked EE in the 6th either, Derek Lowe a little early imo (I would have taken Greinke or Harang there), and I am not a fan yet of taking a Dustin Pedroia in the second. You can justify it however, but I wouldn't.

The thing about this draft for me personally, is that I like to take advantage of how experts draft. I did this draft for real and the team I chose is the same team I would draft in a money league. Go ahead and say my team is terrible or I don't know how to draft but I win money leagues every year, I've played in over 300 fantasy baseball leagues in the 12 years I've been playing and I have honed my drafting craft over the years. My strategies work for me every year, and I stick to them year in and year out. What I have learned about experts (and you guys already hinted at this) is that they like to draft for hype. They like to have the prestige of "making the best pick of the draft" or the "steal of the draft" if you will. They like the glory! But, sometimes, when you look at a draft in hindsight and you add up projected stats and look at the overall team, you have to ask yourself... "what were these guys thinking". I like to take advantage of that.

As for me personally, I am not a numbers guy, I am not a stat cruncher and never will be. I base my teams off countless mock drafts, past few years of stats, trends, playing time, and the lovely "potential" that they show through their past numbers and minor league numbers. I don't multiply the percentage of total bases with the exponent of 4 against right handers during away games. Not me dude. It's too complicated.

As for my questionable picks, so far you guys picked out Quentin and Jeter. I already commented on them in my blog post but here is another post I did on Quentin http://www.fantasybaseballexpress.com/2 ... es-me.html . I am high on him just like you guys are all high on others. I like picking Quentin in the 3rd because I think he's for real and I think that because I've done some homework here. I also did an article like this on Jacoby Ellsbury who I am high on. As for Jeter, wouldn't you guys agree that after Jeter, the next few SS's you mentioned all carry some risk? Other than Michael Young who is a robot (but had some nagging injuries in 2008), Jeter is the most sure thing of that group. Sure, he digessed a little bit but so did the entire Yankee team. Yeah, he's getting older but look at his numbers again in 2008, were they really that far off than his norm? You really have to take the offense as a whole into consideration. But anyway, I did not pick Jeter for upside, I picked Jeter for durability and consistentcy and most of all, peace of mind. I was saving rounds 9-14 for mostly pitching like I always do and by then, Jeter would have been gone along with most of the others.

I was conversing with Tim McLoed of Roto Rob about this and through it all, I feel like I actually did okay. Tim and I both agree that my pitching is risky and that I am low on K's. That is true, but the players I picked are low risk and I can certainly anihilate this league in Wins, ERA, WHIP while staying middle of the pack in K's. Wang, Carmona, Garza, Floyd in my opinion were decent value picks considering what was left. Most experts aren't giving these guys a chance this year, but they were better than what else was out there.

So that's my take. I just wanted to add to the discussion. There's a fat chance anyone else from this draft will chime in so I figured I'd start it off. Feel free to rip me apart, but hopefully you guys see some value in what I'm doing.

Have fun!
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Re: MDC Experts Draft results

Postby AquaMan2342 » Thu Dec 18, 2008 2:52 pm

I thought your team and McLeod were easily the best of the bunch. I think the response to the Jeter pick was mostly because a guy who is on the upswing (Drew) was available. Furcal also, but I understand his injury risk turns some off. Quentin because of the injury risk, not the question that he is for real, because I think most believe he is also.

Taking three first baseman in the first four rounds doesn't allow you much flexibility later in the draft, but I probably would have drafted those guys also.....that's major power to build around.

Glad to know you took the draft seriously, because I doubt the fact that a lot of these guys did. There's way too many weird picks.
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Re: MDC Experts Draft results

Postby fast dogs » Thu Dec 18, 2008 3:12 pm

Quentin going in the 3rd is fine, maybe not the track record but what a season he was having. Certainly alot better than Ellsbury 2 picks later or Youk & Ichiro 6 & 7 picks later. Zimmerman in the 4th & Votto in the 5th just wasting picks when they should be drafted rounds later. Jeter @ 68 isn't where I'd want to take him, but its a whole lot better than all of the above
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Re: MDC Experts Draft results

Postby kab21 » Thu Dec 18, 2008 4:13 pm

FWIW I like Quentin alot where you got him. I also have Jeter as my 5th ranked SS. The problem is that the 4-10th ranked SS's are all very close to each other (long debated on here) and by the 8th rd when you picked all but Peralta were gone. Unless you grab one in the 6-7th rds you might miss out.

I'm not a fan of the guys at the end of the draft that you took, but each guy sees something different in potential breakout players. Guys I like in those rounds (17+) include (but not limited to): Jurrjens, Cueto, Arredondo, Ian Stewart, Devine, Coco, Carp, Lindstrom, Beuhrle (similar to Wang whom you took much earlier), Meche, Dukes (not drafted) and Yunel Escobar. I do like your C tandem and Carmona and Pelfrey are decent.
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Re: MDC Experts Draft results

Postby Kingctb27 » Sat Dec 27, 2008 1:12 pm

Not a bad draft, but let's remember that this draft is WAY early and even the "experts" will change their opinions by mid-march, so just look to this draft as pre-lim type draft.

- No way I am taking a catcher before the late late rounds this year. The difference in guys like Doumit/Wieters/Laird/Sandoval and V-Mart/Martin/Soto will not be much. (The only guy I would even think about taking early <meaning before the beginning of the 6th round> is Mauer, because I know what I will get with him and he is so far ahead of all the other C's in runs it is not funny.) And that is only if top OF guys like Markakis and Maggs are gone.

- Love seeing Milledge go that late. Guy is going to dominate. 20/20 is a near lock, IMO. in the 12th round? Yes Please.

- Best pick BY FAR in this draft is Soria at the end of round 9. I have him ranked as the #2 closer, only behind Papelbon.
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