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2009 Median Draft Position (MDP) Report (Updated 4/1/09)

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Re: 2009 Median Draft Position (MDP) Report (Updated 12/21)

Postby rookies and cream » Mon Dec 22, 2008 12:34 pm

Neato Torpedo wrote:lol what's the deal with Pence and his 0.03 standard deviation?


Just means MDC and Couchmanagers have nearly identical ADPs for Pence. I don't include each site's ADPs in the spreadsheet because some (e.g., MDC) are not free.
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Re: 2009 Median Draft Position (MDP) Report (Updated 12/21)

Postby Neato Torpedo » Mon Dec 22, 2008 3:26 pm

rookies and cream wrote:
Neato Torpedo wrote:lol what's the deal with Pence and his 0.03 standard deviation?


Just means MDC and Couchmanagers have nearly identical ADPs for Pence. I don't include each site's ADPs in the spreadsheet because some (e.g., MDC) are not free.

I know what it means lol, it's just that it's really strange for him to have the exact same ADP among what I thought was several websites. I misread and thought it was more than just Couchmanagers and MDC, which makes it all much less amazing.
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Re: 2009 Median Draft Position (MDP) Report (Updated 12/21)

Postby swyck » Mon Dec 22, 2008 4:11 pm

Really nice. I feel there are a few ways to look at this data.

Obviously the first way is to see where players are being picked. I was having problems coming up with a 1st round list for this year, and its nice to see what the 1st round consensus is and use that as a guide. Interesting to see the new names in the top 12, like Hamilton (too early for me) or Sizemore.

The way I like to look at this data is to see who may be over and under valued, based on my valuations. So if I think Longoria is a 5th rounder (haven't done the valuations yet, just an example), and I see that he's going in the 2nd then I have to assume that I won't be getting him. If he drops to me fine, but until then he's not really in my calculations.

What I like to do is find people who are being picked lower then where I value them. For example if I think a player is 8th round value and I see he's going in the 12th, I know I can wait a few rounds to maximize value. Later in the draft I try to draft from the remaining list of player I have rated higher then the current round.

This is also good to verify your assumptions. If someone is going in the 12th or later and you have him as an 8th rounder, you should look at your assumptions and see if your valuation is really a good one.

So while I think some of the comments about where players should be going are interesting, I like seeing where they actually are going, and use that as a guideline for my draft. Of course each league is unique and players you think will drop to you may get scarfed up way early. That's OK someone else should be available that you like.
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Re: 2009 Median Draft Position (MDP) Report (Updated 12/21)

Postby Yoda » Mon Dec 22, 2008 4:21 pm

I create a tier ranking for each position/round based on the ADPs. This gives me a snap shot of which position needs to be filled or not. I was going to help Rookies with this but I'm not sure if I will have the time.
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Re: 2009 Median Draft Position (MDP) Report (Updated 12/21)

Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Mon Dec 22, 2008 7:03 pm

I use this info in similar ways as you do, swyck. In addition, in my keeper league, I basically try to map the first 3-5 rounds of the draft. Since I know everyone's keepers, I need the positions they need the most. With a 10 keeper 16 team league, a long MDP or ADP gives me a good idea of who's going in picks 125 to 250. I've gotten very good at knowing who will fall to me, when I better grab a closer, and so on by combining my understanding of the owners and the consensus draft positions.
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Re: 2009 Median Draft Position (MDP) Report (Updated 1/1/09)

Postby rookies and cream » Fri Jan 02, 2009 2:27 am

Added ADP's from fantasy gameday, which allowed me to go up to 175. ;-D

http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key= ... V9YX2Hb9JA
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Re: 2009 Median Draft Position (MDP) Report (Updated 1/1/09)

Postby RedSoxNation04 » Fri Jan 02, 2009 9:22 am

Interesting to see two injury-riddled players who both still pose significant risk in '09 going in opposite directions....Furcal has his worst season, health-wise, and he climbed 20+ spots while Harden had his best season, since '04, and has fallen 20+ spots... :-? I feel like there is a lot of pitching depth this year so I'm not surprised to see Harden fall somewhat, but Furcal's rise is somewhat puzzling. Right now, his MDP is ahead of Jeter, Young, Tulo and Drew...
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Re: 2009 Median Draft Position (MDP) Report (Updated 1/1/09)

Postby Curtis Pride » Fri Jan 02, 2009 11:25 am

Wow, this is awesome. I've been tracking the same stuff in my spreadsheet, but you have way more inputs than I do.

Is it difficult to go to like 350 instead of 175? I think the vast majority of players would be in leagues that pick more than 175 players.
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Re: 2009 Median Draft Position (MDP) Report (Updated 1/1/09)

Postby rookies and cream » Fri Jan 02, 2009 11:36 am

Curtis Pride wrote:Wow, this is awesome. I've been tracking the same stuff in my spreadsheet, but you have way more inputs than I do.

Is it difficult to go to like 350 instead of 175? I think the vast majority of players would be in leagues that pick more than 175 players.


Thanks CP. I started at 60. Then went to 100. Now I'm at 175. By draft day (as I get more site's ADPs), I'll be at 350-400 (That's what I did last year). Problem is that there are only 2 site's inputs after about 175 and there is such variance that I didn't think it would be useful. I'll be making about 5 or so updates by draft day. Don't worry, I'll get there....
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Re: 2009 Median Draft Position (MDP) Report (Updated 1/1/09)

Postby rookies and cream » Fri Jan 02, 2009 11:45 am

RedSoxNation04 wrote:Interesting to see two injury-riddled players who both still pose significant risk in '09 going in opposite directions....Furcal has his worst season, health-wise, and he climbed 20+ spots while Harden had his best season, since '04, and has fallen 20+ spots... :-? I feel like there is a lot of pitching depth this year so I'm not surprised to see Harden fall somewhat, but Furcal's rise is somewhat puzzling. Right now, his MDP is ahead of Jeter, Young, Tulo and Drew...


Hey RSN. I wouldn't make much of the change scores on this update as much of this is due to me adding a 3rd ADP source, which stabilized things a bit.

But you are right. Furcal is an interesting case study because he was initially not even in the top 200 on Couchmanagers. :-? He is now 128, but 61.23 on MDC and 76.09 on FGD, respectively. I wouldn't touch him at those spots due to his age and injury history.

Harden is weird, because he just the opposite. 63.20 on Couchmanagers, but 118.47 and 112.36 on MDC and FGD, respectively. Adding the 3rd input brought his MDP down significantly.
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