the603s wrote:interesting...you dont have sabathia in there. you think his arm is gonna explode because he pitcher 100 innings last year? or cause he's a fatty?
Sabathia dominated last season after the trade, there is no question. However, that was in the NL, now he will be playing in the AL, so I think his numbers take a hit. Also, the Brewers used him as a half season rental player, not worrying about him racking up high pitch counts. I expect him to do very well next season, I just don't feel comfortable drafting him where he is going.
I think top 5 hitters is pretty self explanatory. I'd give the edge to M-Cab over Reyes for the reason that it's a tantalizing prospect to see how M-Cab does a full year in Detroit, fully adjusted.
As for Sabathia, I think he's a top 5 pitcher but you look at his prior workload over the past few years and there's reason to believe he'll eventually tire out. If that's not the case, then I see CC's ERA inflating with the move back to the AL, in a more unfriendly division than the Central. I'd give Hamels the slight edge even though he has workload/injury concerns too but Philly tends to take good care of his arm.
I like both Mets hitters to improve as they move out of Shea. Pujols is my biggest question mark because of health...but because he's been playing through injuries for years, I won't downgrade him til he actually goes on the DL.
Top 5 pitchers: Santana Sabathia Hamels Webb Peavy
Obviously, there are big disagreements about Sabathia. I'm in the camp that (1) thinks his value drops slightly (but not significantly) by the move to the Yankees, but more importantly (2) I'm not worried about his health, at least not this year. High, but not outrageous, workloads don't scare me - what scares me are (1) high IP before the age of 23 and (2) dramatic increases (30+ IP) in workload from one year to the next. CC had high IP before 25, and when he was around 24, I would have pegged him as a good bet to get injured. Since he didn't, though, I'm no longer particularly concerned. (full disclosure: I own him in my keeper).
Conversely, I'm pretty concerned about Lincecum for two reasons: (1) the aforementioned increase in workload at a young age (177 in 2007 to 227 in 2008) and (2) I doubt the Giants repeat the excellent run support he got this season. The Giants scored 4.9 R/G when Lince was on the mound, and 3.7 R/G at all other times.