If he's great for 3 years and then solid for 2 more, I'd be happy with this deal. No, I don't expect him to be great for all 7 years. You'd be a fool to think that. Would it surprise me if he got hurt early on? No, it wouldn't. For almost any other team I'd say this is a bad deal. But the Yankees freed up a ton of cash, needed an ace SP in the worst way and have the means to recover from this deal in case it busts. A risk, but a necessary risk.