His Shoulder will not be ready until Spring Training. His speed is great but we have yet to see his bat. Will he be a top star and steal in the third round or is it better to go with Quentin or Kemp? Quentin has power no speed and Kemp is being shopped.
In early mocks I've seen and been in, he's routinely gone at the end of the second, and sometimes early 3rd. I'm personally very high on Upton. After his post-season performance and taking into account his immense upside, I *by far* like him most of that list.
As Dodger said, it would be between him and Quentin. However much of their comparison will depend on where Upton hits in the lineup. If he bats third, I'd expect somewhat similar numbers to Quentin, but with an extra 30 steals for Upton. If he hits second, Quentin will have the edge in power numbers, but Upton's runs (and obviously his steals) will be a bit higher than Quentin's.
That's how I would rank them as well. I think that if Quentin didn't have his wrist injury he would be drafted in Hamilton territory. I know there are lots of concerns about his power bouncing back after coming off a wrist injury, but even if he only hits 30HR, he will still be very valuable. .280 30HR 100R 100RBI with a handful of SB thrown in is a great season, but he has the upside to exceed all those numbers. 36HR in 480ABs with 80Ks and 66BBs makes me very confident in the young slugger.
I am a big supporter of Kemp and expect him to take the next step one of these seasons. I think he will put up similar numbers that Sizemore did in 2007 something like .280 25HR 35SB, which would put him slightly above Upton. The biggest concern has to be his BB and K rates, but I think that Mattingly will help him a bit with that.
Upton had offseason surgery to fix his ailing shoulder, so you have to think his power numbers will get a slight boost. .280 18HR 35SB would be within reach.
Out of the group I think Kemp in the 4th would be the biggest bargain. Quentin usually goes in the 2nd, Upton in the 3rd and Kemp in the 4th.
I think Upton in the early 3rd sounds fine. I would've thought that his huge postseason would've inflated his draft position more than it could have, but it was nice to see his FB rate start to pick up. I can see Upton being a better bargain than Quentin or Kemp, but it's all relative.
The biggest worry I have with Quentin like others is the wrist. All of his peripherals are terrific anyway.
Kemp has the higher bust potential, I'd say, more or less because if he doesn't surpass 20 HR, then he might as well be stealing 30 SB to support where he's being taken and it should be interesting how many times he's green-lighted. Mattingly should help in Kemp's approach, but I think paramount to his success is if he can improve against righties. The power will come when he's more comfortable with better pitch selection and a keener mind for situational hitting (i.e. opposite-field hitting). That said, if Kemp does fall in the 4th round, that's a potential steal I'd surely be willing to take.
Upton in the 3rd is where he is being drafted. I think he comes back fine next season and you don't have anything to worry about.
I personally think Quentin is being overdrafted right now. I wouldn't want to take the risk on him in the early to mid 2nd round right now. Kemp may be better than Upton but can be drafted in the 4-5 rounds so he may actually provide better value, but don't reach for him in the 3rd.
Upton in the third round all day. His power and speed combo with a decent average put him first on the list for me. He's only getting better and will be fully healthy with another year of playing in the outfield under his belt. Upton/Quentin/Kemp.
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by DRAFTAHOLIC » Wed Dec 10, 2008 12:56 pm 
