keeper contract question

[Diamond Miners]

Every year we get 5 new contracts to hand out (one 4 year, one 3 year and three 2 years). Going into the season here are the players I already have under contract

3 year: Pujols, Mig.Cabrera, Martin
2 year: Phillips, K-Rod, and Bedard
1 year: Liriano and Nathan

I'm looking to give Kershaw a 4 year and Joba a 3 year to round out my 10 keepers.

Who do you expect to be the better fantasy player the next 2 years?
Marmol, the new Cubs closer or Bedard? I could likely package Bedard + Gavin Floyd in another deal.
In 2007 Bedard scored in the top 10 for pitchers (537 points) but as everyone knows missed most of the 2008 season.

I also have an option to trade Hardy for either Granderson (1 year left) or a 3rd round pick. I might be able to package Granderson + whomever I'm able to get for Bedard + Floyd to further improve my keepers. But nothing is a sure thing.

Some of the players who will be back in the draft because their contracts are up include: Berkman, Roberts, Youk, ARam, Uggla, Dunn, Mauer, Kazmir, Shields, Chipper Jones, Burnett, Atkins, Hart, and Ethier. What does your top 6 look like of those players?
I'm tempted to deal Phillips this offseason because I have a shot at drafting Roberts. I have a lottery pick next year so in the least I get pick #6, but have a small shot at getting pick #1.

I know this is a lot to comment on, but thanks and just leave a link and I'll check out yours.

[MadDog36]

I like moving Hardy for Granderson since you lack OFers. Even if it is just for one year. It will help bridge the gap there.

Out of those FAs you listed:

Berkman, Dunn, Hart, Ethier are the most important since they give you a stud OF. I'd try like to heck to get an early pick to get Berk. That will really help you with that illegal INF your keeping. What SS will be available?

[Diamond Miners]

I like moving Hardy for Granderson since you lack OFers. Even if it is just for one year. It will help bridge the gap there.
Out of those FAs you listed:
Berkman, Dunn, Hart, Ethier are the most important since they give you a stud OF. I'd try like to heck to get an early pick to get Berk. That will really help you with that illegal INF your keeping. What SS will be available?

Well I'm actually working on a deal that nets me Sizemore or Bruan, hence my hesitancy to get Granderson on a year. I think the extra 3rd round pick will be valuable next year. I like Berkman but there's no way he produces like he did last year. But if I go in with 0 OFs, I'm not going to be to worried. I'm pretty sure I could grab Dunn, Hart and maybe even Ethier the first three rounds to fill that void. As for SS, Drew and Alex.Ramirez might be back in the draft. Peralta, M.Young, Tejada, and Aviles I know for sure will be back in.


What do you think about the Bedard v Marmol option? That's mostly why I posted this question.
Thanks for the feedback though!

[San D]

I'd rather bet on Marmol being a successful closer than Bedard being healthy. I'd go with Marmol.

[Wheelhouse]

i wouldn't trust bedard, especially on a 2 year deal.......marmol seems like the safer option - although both contain some risk..........i'd try to do better in the trade market

[Diamond Miners]

Any other thoughts?

[RunReyesRun]

I'd go with Marmol, he's got great stuff and should have the opportunity this year.

Never was a big believer in Bedard, don't trust him

[ayebatter]

What do you think about the Bedard v Marmol option? That's mostly why I posted this question.
Thanks for the feedback though!



Bedard , but then I'm not a fan of keeping closers, specifically young unproven closers that have been great set-up men.

[tyler2]

I agree with you, I'd keep Bedard in a points league; in most formats, a good SP is better than a good RP. I think he's riskier than Marmol health-wise, but his mean and upside projections both beat Marmol's.

FWIW, the projections I trust have these guys at the following lines:

Bedard: 3.30/ 1.22, 14-9, 215 K's (assuming 185 IP - this site doesn't project playing time)

Marmol: 2.79/1.19, 5-2, 37 SV, 106 K's (assuming 87 IP)

HTH.

[Diamond Miners]

I agree with you, I'd keep Bedard in a points league; in most formats, a good SP is better than a good RP. I think he's riskier than Marmol health-wise, but his mean and upside projections both beat Marmol's.

FWIW, the projections I trust have these guys at the following lines:

Bedard: 3.30/ 1.22, 14-9, 215 K's (assuming 185 IP - this site doesn't project playing time)

Marmol: 2.79/1.19, 5-2, 37 SV, 106 K's (assuming 87 IP)

HTH.

Interesting, I really have not seen to many people very high on Bedard for 2009. With those projections and my league's point setup they are pretty equal 498 (Bedard - assuming 17 quality starts)) and 509 (Marmol - assuming 5 blown saves)

May I ask what site or who's projections?