David Price Madison Bumgarner Rick Porcello Neftali Feliz Chris Tillman Brett Anderson Trevor Cahill Jarrod Parker Tim Alderson Tommy Hanson Jhoulys Chacin Carlos Carrasco Derek Holland Jeremy Hellickson Dellin Betances Wade Davis Phillippe Aumont Adam Miller Brian Matusz Nick Adenhart
Thoughts?
Last edited by oddmanout7 on Fri Dec 05, 2008 8:46 pm, edited 1 time in total.
i guess your rankings are based more on potential vs production?...i tend to lean the other way when decided between similar prospects, so this should be fun...personally i have cahill #2 because he has dominated up to AA and is more of a safe bet to be at least a solid 2/3, porcello and madbum have the higher upsides but more questions(porcellos K%/madbums secondary pitches)...same reason i have anderson #5, maybe higher than most people, but outstanding control and GB% translates better to the majors than the high BB% low GB% of feliz and tillman...and at AA anderson had a higher K%, lower BB%, and much better GB% than tillman or feliz...i also have parker/alderson 8/9 but i have alderson ahead of parker because their numbers are all relatively similar but parker was in A ball and alderson was in A+ CAL league, making his performance more impressive...parker has the higher ceiling, but alderson is clearly more refined at this point...im ok with holland, chacin, hanson next, but i replaced carrasco, hellickson, and betances with matusz, aumont, and zimmerman...matusz seems like a safe bet to move through the minors quickly as he has good control of 4 quality pitches, zimmerman is nothing fancy just solid across the board and could be in WAS this year, and i guess aumont is my token high ceiling hasnt proven much yet guy...i think he's real deal and would be a top 10 SP prospect if he stayed healthy and pitched more innings this year...ive just never liked carrasco that much, nothing specific...and i do like hellickson but i worry how his stuff will do at higher levels, everything i hear is "great command, average stuff", and in AA his average stuff got hit alot harder (12% HR/Air in AA compared to 6% in A+)...thats 15 hrs in 75 innings, scary!...betances is pretty similar to aumont as far as potential imo, but betances does have the control issue to overcome, whereas i think aumont already has the tools and only has to stay healthy
overall good list, you stayed pretty consistent in ranking potential over production, and as long as you're consistent and can defend your rankings, i say good job!...ill try and comment on your top 25 later
1. David Price - No Brainer 2. Madison Bumgarner 3. Trevor Cahill 4. Rick Porcello 5. Chris Tillman 6. Tommy Hanson 7. Neftali Feliz 8. Tim Alderson 9. Brett Anderson 10. Derek Holland 11. Jhoulys Chacin 12. Brian Matusz 13. Jarrod Parker 14. Wade Davis 15. James McDonald
This is my top 15. Hellickson, Cecil, Zimmermannm, Bowden are close. These 19 are in my top 50 overall.
Bettances is not in my top 100, but definitely on my watch list. Like JimPage said, he needs to improve his command. He did strike out 105 in 93 innings last year, but also walked 53.
oddmanout7 wrote:1. David Price 2. Rick Porcello 3. Madison Bumgarner 4. Trevor Cahill 5. Chris Tillman 6. Jarrod Parker 7. Tim Alderson 8. Neftali Feliz 9. Brett Anderson 10. Carlos Carrasco 11. Derek Holland 12. Jhoulys Chacin 13. Tommy Hanson 14. Jeremy Hellickson 15. Dellin Betances
Thoughts?
After the TJ surgery Betances had, I think he takes a back seat to someone like Bowden. Also, I think Adam Miller still needs to be high on this list.
My lists were not the culmination of tons of research, more of a gut ranking more than anything. However, as I may have some time on my hands the next few days, I may try to expand my rankings a bit, and also include my justification.
The purpose of this post was more to generate discussion, and possibly move towards building a community list, but I appreciate all the commentary thus far. I think after the top 10 or so prospects, the evaluation becomes more subjective, with everyone having their own opinions so it should be a fun discussion if we could only generate more people to look at this forum...
oddmanout7 wrote:1. David Price 2. Rick Porcello 3. Madison Bumgarner 4. Trevor Cahill 5. Chris Tillman 6. Jarrod Parker 7. Tim Alderson 8. Neftali Feliz 9. Brett Anderson 10. Carlos Carrasco 11. Derek Holland 12. Jhoulys Chacin 13. Tommy Hanson 14. Jeremy Hellickson 15. Dellin Betances
Thoughts?
After the TJ surgery Betances had, I think he takes a back seat to someone like Bowden. Also, I think Adam Miller still needs to be high on this list.
i think you have confused betances with andrew brackman - betances hasn't had TJ, or any other surgery
Adam Miller has thrown only 94 innings in AAA across 2 seasons. 88Ks 33BB isn't that bad. However, he was limited last year due to a finger injury.
Rotoworld
Adam Miller yielded two runs in four innings Thursday in his Dominican Winter League debut. Miller was limited to six starts in April and May this year by a finger injury that required surgery. The plan is for him to enter next year as a reliever, but he's starting games in the Dominican Republic right now.
I think as a reliever, I like him a bit less. So I don't think he is near my top 15 pitchers.
I figure Dellin Betances would be the most disputed amongst my rankings.
As a 20 year old in A ball 115ip 135K 59BB. The Ks are great and are due to a mid 90s fastball. He is 6'8", but a lanky and thin guy (215lbs). From what I have read, his curveball and change have been developing nicely. This ranking is likely very aggressive for him, but I think I like him over more well known and hyped guys such as Wade Davis. I like him to have ace potential, whereas I see Davis as more a #2 type of guy.
Wade Davis as a 22 year old between AA/AAA 160ip 136K 66BB. That is a very solid line. Looking deeper into the stats, Davis posted 146ip 165K 64BB in A ball as a 20 year old. Both Davis and Betances have good zip to their fastballs, but as Betances continues to grow I expect him to add some more bulk to his frame as well as refine his mechanics to help with control, thus my ranking.
Brian Matusz is a good mention with a low 90s fastball and a good curve. However, I have heard some questions about his mechanics which may cause his velocity to be inconsistent. http://www.baseball-intellect.com/Articles/college-draft-brian-matusz.htmlAs I don't have any minor league stats to look at, he was left out until I can see more. He should move through the minors quickly, but I question his potential, which is probably more a #2/#3.
Aumont I almost added to my top 15, so I will agree that he has good potential. Jordan Zimmerman is a guy who has a chance to get some work in the bigs in 2009, but I just don't think he has the upside to be a #1.
Hellickson between A+/AA 152ip 162K 20BB as a 21 year old. He has a mid 90s fastball, a 3/4 delivery and a developing curve. I like him over Zimmerman, Matusz for sure, and Aumont might have potential but he doesn't have enough stats to support it yet. Don't get me wrong, 50Ks 19BB 55ip aren't bad numbers for a 19 year old in A ball, but I would have expected better for a guy as hyped as he is.
oddmanout7 wrote:1. David Price 2. Rick Porcello 3. Madison Bumgarner 4. Trevor Cahill 5. Chris Tillman 6. Jarrod Parker 7. Tim Alderson 8. Neftali Feliz 9. Brett Anderson 10. Carlos Carrasco 11. Derek Holland 12. Jhoulys Chacin 13. Tommy Hanson 14. Jeremy Hellickson 15. Dellin Betances
Thoughts?
After the TJ surgery Betances had, I think he takes a back seat to someone like Bowden. Also, I think Adam Miller still needs to be high on this list.
i think you have confused betances with andrew brackman - betances hasn't had TJ, or any other surgery
I apologize, Betances hasn't had TJ but he has been shut down with elbow trouble which led many to believe he'd get TJ at the time. Still, I like a few guys with less question marks and/or polish. http://ohholycow.blogspot.com/2008/03/7 ... ances.html
oddmanout7 wrote:1. David Price 2. Rick Porcello 3. Madison Bumgarner 4. Trevor Cahill 5. Chris Tillman 6. Jarrod Parker 7. Tim Alderson 8. Neftali Feliz 9. Brett Anderson 10. Carlos Carrasco 11. Derek Holland 12. Jhoulys Chacin 13. Tommy Hanson 14. Jeremy Hellickson 15. Dellin Betances
Thoughts?
Looks good. But I think Wade Davis still needs to be above Hell Boy, despite the latter having a more superior season. I'd also push Tommy Hanson up a couple of spots. A lot of the guys at the top (except Price) are interchangeable. It will be interesting to see how things change next year...
oddmanout7 wrote:2. Rick Porcello 3. Madison Bumgarner 4. Trevor Cahill 5. Chris Tillman
And just think, I have to pick 2 of those guys to keep going into next year. Which two does everybody think will make the biggest impact in 2009 or pitch less then 50 innings (max limi to remain a minor league keeper for 2010).
Cahill I'm sure makes the rotation. Porcello and Tillman I figure to be September call-ups. Bumgarner I figure does not make an impact and might be the only one to pitch less then 50 innings in 2009.
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by oddmanout7 » Tue Nov 25, 2008 3:24 am 
