Help with a Berkman trade in deep league WHIR

[auclairkeithbc]

Berkman 10.5M till 2010

for

Joba 300K till 2012, Campillo 300K till 2011, and Chris TIllman 300K (for 5 years including his rookie year).

I am in a 28 team dynasty league. It is 6X6 (with OBP and Holds as the additional cats). We play with 9 offensive starters (1 at each position plus a UT guy), and up to 6 relievers and as many SPs as you can reasonably keep on the 25 man roster.

It is an auction league with a 100M cap, and a highly inflated free agent period because of rookie contracts being 300K for 5 years (including MLB rookie year) and also the ability to "franchise" up to 2 players for 2 years each @ 11M per year or 135% of the expiring contract's yearly salary, whichever number is HIGHER.

It is a H2H league where quite a few teams make the playoffs. There are 2 leagues with 14 teams in league. 6 teams from each league make the playoffs each year (2 teams in each league get first round byes which is pretty big).

THIS MIGHT BE BORING, SO IGNORE OR JUST SCAN IF YOU WANT....

I give up Lance Berkman 10.5M (2 years remaining including this year), and the ability to keep him @ 14.2 for 2 more years, and 19.1M for 2 years after that. [again FA is VERY inflated, so I'd guess Berkman would go for the league max 5 years at over 25M per year, maybe 30M if someone could afford that].

I'd get the following:
Joba Chamberlain @ 300K (4 years remaining including this year), and also i'd have the ability to "franchise him" for 11M in 2013 and 2014, then 14.8 in 2015 and 2016 if it turns out that Joba is a true stud SP.
Jorge Campillo @ 300K (3 years remaining including this year)
Chris Tillman (Baltimore Prospect) who would would make 300K in his rookie year and also for the 4 years following his rookie year.

Here is my team right now...

C - Posada 7.3M (2012) and Shoppach 300K (2011)
1B - Berkman 10.5M (2010) and Eric Hinske 500K (2010) should be eligible
2B - Kinsler 300K (2011)
3B - ?
ss - ?
OF - Kemp 300K (2011)
OF - Dye 11.5M (2010)
OF - Burrell 11M (2010)
UT - FLoyd 500K (2010)/ Hinske 500K(2010)/Steve Pearce 300K (2012)/Josh Anderson 300K (2012)

SP - Oswalt 14.8M (2010), Shields 300K (2011), Vazquez 15M (2010), Litsh 300K (2011), then question marks in Wade Leblanc, Jason Hirsh, and Kevin Mulvey
RP - Tony Pena 300K (2011), LaTroy Hawkins 700K (2010), D.Sanchez 500K (2009), C.Bradford 500K (2011), C.Sampson 300K (2011)

Currently I have about 20M to spend on a 3B and SS, maybe a 5th starter and another HOLDS guys. Also I am trying to trade one of my catchers, but this team does not need one.

The main reasons I am considering this deal are (1) that we can only franchise 2 players at a time, meaning that I am going to HAVE to trade either berkman, kemp, or kinsler and probably by next offseason to get full value. I can't franchise all three, and Berkman is the oldest and he'd be a little more expensive to franchise anyway, (2) I have a pretty damn good team that should be able to make the playoffs even without a great replacement for Berkman, and they are kind of a crapshoot anyway, (3) It really helps my long term future, and (4) it saves me 10M (of course I'd have to pay to get a new 1B but I won't have to pay for more SPs).

WHat do you guys think?

[San D]

I'd do it. Joba's not bad return at a cheap price. Tillman will be up at some point this year and could surprise. Campillo is also cheap. Berkman counts a lot against your cap, and it looks like it is an advantage in your league to be able to roster a lot of cheap starting pitchers.

[MaudDib]

I would say go for it. I think having the extra cash would be nice for Free agency.

[bigken117]

Wow I'm really on the fence with this one. Berkman is worth his salary and then some in this format, and you couldn't replace his production from the auction. I like me some Chris Tillman too, but I really don't know. I think I'd pass.

[kimchi_chigae]

I think Berkman is one of the most underrated players out there and I'd hate to give him up, but I think you are getting great value in return. Berkman is already 32 years old and his production will likely start to decline in the next few years. Trading a established player for young guys is always a risk, especially with someone like Joba who has a bit of a injury history, but I'd probably gamble here.

[The Artful Dodger]

I think I'd do it as well. Berkman's bound to be underrated following a putrid second half power dropoff, but I think you're getting a good enough return in young top-flight talent that can make an immediate impact within the next couple of seasons.

[tyler2]

Hmm, a lot of moving parts - I like that.

Seems to me that with the savings from Berkman's contract, you'll get the cheap contracts of Joba, Campillo and Tillman, along with a ~$10M player (Carlos Pena? Milton Bradley?). That looks like a pretty even deal to me...except that Berkman's only signed for the next two years (granting that you could onto him longer for more $), and the other guys will be locked up for 4-5 years. Even though I like Berkman a lot, and am somewhat down on Joba, this probably is a deal I make, for all the reasons you mentioned in your original post. With that many teams, and with teams apparently rostering a lot of pitchers, Campillo and Tillman are likely to have much more value than they would in a traditional 12 teamer. I like this deal for you.

[oddmanout7]

I like Berkman, but with the potential of Joba and the savings in money, this is a deal I would make.

[Niffoc4]

I like Berkman, but with the potential of Joba and the savings in money, this is a deal I would make.

I agree, I think Joba has incredible potential on his own, plus Tillman is a top 25 (?) prospect and Campillo is cheap even if he isn't great. Is there any way you could get a hitter included instead of Campillo?

Also, Could you help with mine?
viewtopic.php?f=26&t=363912

[APAP]

I would agree with the majority and make this one