Mafia XI - Night 3

[Inukchuk]

I feel the same way right now. I have legitimately suspected everyone left as a mafioso over the past read through. There is not nearly enough information this game. We did a very poor job of dragging out day 1, which I definitely agree w/h0rt is a big advantage for the town.

One thing I can say is that Aussie and teddy seem to be pressing to get the show lynched today. If show is a townie, I can see both aussie and teddy as mafia trying to get that last townie lynch. If show is mafia, then that totally clears aussie and teddy in my eyes. I know it doesn't help us today, but assuming we make the right choice, it could help us tomorrow.

I think we should take our time this round and wait until everyone has posted their thoughts on every other player before we begin voting. We need all the info we can get. I have to run (frostbite softball playoffs in the 20 degree weather... ), but I will put down my thoughts the earliest chance I get, whether it be tonight or tomorrow morning. I would hope no one has rushed into a vote before then... this is the only chance we have!!!

[bigh0rt]

Votes:
The_Show - 1 (Aussie)

4 votes for a lynchin'...

[Snakes Gould]

yikes.

[teddy ballgame]

If you're so convinced why didn't you vote?

I'm not voting yet because we don't have any room for error, and I'd rather see how other people feel before giving the mafia a chance to jump on and vote if you are indeed a townie.

[chris8]

Well, most people have shared at least some of their thoughts about other people, but we still need to hear from a couple of people. And several of us have only really talked about one of the people left alive.

This game has come to a halt. I'm too afraid to suggest anyone as Mafia at this point.

That doesn't help us. Sure, the odds are stacked against us, but we can't just give up. At least tell us who you think is mafia, and give us your reasons. Then we can talk it out and try and reach a concensus before casting our votes.

I think we should take our time this round and wait until everyone has posted their thoughts on every other player before we begin voting. We need all the info we can get. I have to run (frostbite softball playoffs in the 20 degree weather... ), but I will put down my thoughts the earliest chance I get, whether it be tonight or tomorrow morning. I would hope no one has rushed into a vote before then... this is the only chance we have!!!

Inuk's right - we need everyone to say what they think about everyone else. So far, only TheShow & I have done that. Although there is a little more information to work with since I last posted, so my thoughts have changed slightly:

One thing I can say is that Aussie and teddy seem to be pressing to get the show lynched today. If show is a townie, I can see both aussie and teddy as mafia trying to get that last townie lynch. If show is mafia, then that totally clears aussie and teddy in my eyes. I know it doesn't help us today, but assuming we make the right choice, it could help us tomorrow.

True, although Aussie is the only one who's voted so far. Yesterday, I would have thought that was very suspicious, but something TheShow has said makes me reconsider:

That doesn't make sense. If I was mafia, I wouldn't try to start a bandwagon. I would wait until someone casts a vote, then have all 3 mafia vote for the person with 1 vote on him and end the day (and possibly game).

I actually did that exact thing back in game 4. We needed 3 votes to lynch someone so when someone voted for jfg, me and JTwood jumped on and effectively ended the game after killing the ISK during the night.

That's a good point he makes...unless he's trying to cover his back having thrown out that early vote yesterday. I don't know what I think about Aussie's vote right now. On one hand, I don't like the fact he's voted early; on the other hand, I can see what TheShow is saying. And Aussie has thrown out an early vote every day, so it's not unusual to see him do that.

But to go back to Inuk's point, if TheShow does turn out to be innocent, then I think there's a fair chance you're right about Aussie & teddy. The problem is, we haven't got the luxury of waiting to see. The other thing I have to consider is the possibility that you yourself are mafia, and are willing to point the finger at one or both of your partners to leave you free of suspicion for the rest of the game.

This is where I stand:

I think one of Aussie & Yoda is probably mafia, having voted for both lynchings so far. (It's possible both are, but I think at least one is).
I also think at least one of Janitor, Show & teddy are mafia, since they have kept clear of the lynchings.
I cannot clear anyone from suspicion at this stage, including Inuk, who has not really given anything away. I am very much looking forward to hearing his thoughts when he gets back.

My top suspect is still Janitor, but I've said why I'm hesitating to vote for him. But we really need everyone to post their thoughts on everyone, like Inuk said, so we can pool our information.

[The_Show]

The ISK is really what's keeping us alive. My thoughts on aussie's vote:

If aussie is a townie, then it clearly means the mafia have no idea who the ISK is. If they knew the ISK, all 3 mafia would vote for me and kill the ISK at night--ending the game.

If aussie was mafia, then what teddy said could support that both teddy + aussie are mafia. Wait until a townie/ISK votes, so the remaining mafia can finish me off.

[Yoda]

The Show has to be mafia. If not then the 3 mafia members would have all voted for him by now no?

Let me know what I am missing here.

[TheJanitor]

I think one of Aussie & Yoda is probably mafia, having voted for both lynchings so far. (It's possible both are, but I think at least one is).
I also think at least one of Janitor, Show & teddy are mafia, since they have kept clear of the lynchings.

.....what?

[The_Show]

If I was mafia, I would not have thrown out that early vote. I would of waited until a townie threw out a vote then have all 3 mafioso finish the guy off. I've been in this situation before as a mafia. I would of done the exact same thing as before.

I would wait until someone threw out a vote (like I did in Game 4). When someone does throw out a vote and mafia finish him off:

At night it would be:
3 Mafia, 2 townies, 1 ISK

1/3 chance to get ISK, which is a pretty good chance. Even in worst case scenario (ISK gets mafia, mafia gets townie),

Day 4 would be: 3 votes needed for lynching
1 Townie, 2 Mafia, 1 ISK

It would be pretty much a tie or win for mafia. Mafia can't lose.

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Even if a townie threw out a vote for a mafia, I would have a mafia member help in the lynching to clear their name and speed up the process. The numbers would still be in the mafia's favor except now they can lose.

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If Aussie was a townie and I was mafia, I would want another mafia member put in a vote for me to help clear their name. Then when someone else throws in a vote for me (making it 3 votes), I would commit suicide (vote for myself) to end the day and cause confusion. That confusion would work well in the mafia's favor. It would still take a worst case scenario to turn the tables against the mafia. All the mafia has to do is kill the ISK.

If aussie and me were both mafia, I would of told aussie to wait before throwing out a vote.

I know I'm not a mafia guru, but I've been in this situation before from a mafia's perspective. The numbers are stacked up against the town, which opens the door for the mafia to play aggressive.

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I know I'm a townie. If aussie was a townie, why hasn't the mafia finish me off? They can't lose. Worst case scenario is that they tie.

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Hope all that wasn't too confusing

[Yoda]

The Show, if you are a townie then you'd be dead and the game would be over now.