Billingsley or Beckett?

[DevilDriver]

Also Beckett's 07 was his career year. Are you really assuming that he will get back to that level in 09?

Yes, if he pitches around 200 innings, he will produce around that level in 09. It's pretty clear that in 07 he became a better pitcher than he was pre-07. Even last season he pitched close to his 07 level, it's just that he got unlucky so the ERA didn't show it.

Plus, account for his injuries and the fact that he is 4 years older than Billingsley.

That's really the only argument for Billingsley. My point is that Beckett's ability is that much higher than Billingley's that it outweighs those factors.

Finally, Beckett should cost more because he has a name. In a keeper, Billingsley is better.

Cost is irrelevant in this argument. I agree that based on draft position/cost that Billingsley could give you more bang for the buck. Straight up though, Beckett is better in a keeper.

[Yoda]

I think that it is a serious mistake to bank on him staying healthy and/or producing at his 07 level. A lot of things will need to go right in order for him to achieve those two goals. Plus in a keeper, a much younger Billingsley seems a lot more attractive me than an injury prone Beckett.

Here is Beckett's career IP:
107.2
142
156.2
178.2
204.2
200.2
174.1

In his 7 seasons, he topped 200 IP just twice. He was relatively healthy for those two seasons but now starting to break down once again. I don't really care how dominant someone is if they can't stay healthy. The list of dominant pitchers who are injury prone is extremely long . I tend to stay away from those guys unless they are a real bargain and I don't see 2009 Beckett as a bargain. Hey if you want to draft Beckett expecting a top 5 pitcher then be my guest. I'm just saying that it is not prudent.

[DevilDriver]

I think that it is a serious mistake to bank on him staying healthy and/or producing at his 07 level. A lot of things will need to go right in order for him to achieve those two goals. Plus in a keeper, a much younger Billingsley seems a lot more attractive me than an injury prone Beckett.

Here is Beckett's career IP:
107.2
142
156.2
178.2
204.2
200.2
174.1

In his 7 seasons, he topped 200 IP just twice. He was relatively healthy for those two seasons but now starting to break down once again. I don't really care how dominant someone is if they can't stay healthy. The list of dominant pitchers who are injury prone is extremely long . I tend to stay away from those guys unless they are a real bargain and I don't see 2009 Beckett as a bargain. Hey if you want to draft Beckett expecting a top 5 pitcher then be my guest. I'm just saying that it is not prudent.

I agree drafting Beckett expecting a top 5 pitcher is stupid. However, I would draft him expecting a top 15 pitcher with the potential of being top 5.

It comes down to whether or not you think Beckett's reward outweighs his risk. Personally, I think does; you obviously don't.

[Yoda]

I think that it is a serious mistake to bank on him staying healthy and/or producing at his 07 level. A lot of things will need to go right in order for him to achieve those two goals. Plus in a keeper, a much younger Billingsley seems a lot more attractive me than an injury prone Beckett.

Here is Beckett's career IP:
107.2
142
156.2
178.2
204.2
200.2
174.1

In his 7 seasons, he topped 200 IP just twice. He was relatively healthy for those two seasons but now starting to break down once again. I don't really care how dominant someone is if they can't stay healthy. The list of dominant pitchers who are injury prone is extremely long . I tend to stay away from those guys unless they are a real bargain and I don't see 2009 Beckett as a bargain. Hey if you want to draft Beckett expecting a top 5 pitcher then be my guest. I'm just saying that it is not prudent.

I agree drafting Beckett expecting a top 5 pitcher is stupid. However, I would draft him expecting a top 15 pitcher with the potential of being top 5.

It comes down to whether or not you think Beckett's reward outweighs his risk. Personally, I think does; you obviously don't.

Yep that is what I have been saying all along.

I don't feel that Beckett will be worth the risk in 09 especially given how many good, young pitchers are out there. Especially in a keeper league, I'd target someone who is young, healthy, showing steady improvement and primed for a breakout season.

[raiders_umpire]

Billingsley. Hootie and Yoda have taken care of the reasons why. This is a simple choice for me. Take the younger, healthier pitcher in Bills.

[DevilDriver]

Billingsley. Hootie and Yoda have taken care of the reasons why. This is a simple choice for me. Take the younger, healthier pitcher in Bills.

Just out of curiosity, if you magically knew that both will reach 200 innings in each of the next 3 seasons, which one would you take?

[Yoda]

Billingsley. Hootie and Yoda have taken care of the reasons why. This is a simple choice for me. Take the younger, healthier pitcher in Bills.

Just out of curiosity, if you magically knew that both will reach 200 innings in each of the next 3 seasons, which one would you take?

I'd take Rich Harden or Mark Prior.