Yoda wrote:Also Beckett's 07 was his career year. Are you really assuming that he will get back to that level in 09?
Yes, if he pitches around 200 innings, he will produce around that level in 09. It's pretty clear that in 07 he became a better pitcher than he was pre-07. Even last season he pitched close to his 07 level, it's just that he got unlucky so the ERA didn't show it.
Plus, account for his injuries and the fact that he is 4 years older than Billingsley.
That's really the only argument for Billingsley. My point is that Beckett's ability is that much higher than Billingley's that it outweighs those factors.
Finally, Beckett should cost more because he has a name. In a keeper, Billingsley is better.
Cost is irrelevant in this argument. I agree that based on draft position/cost that Billingsley could give you more bang for the buck. Straight up though, Beckett is better in a keeper.