Billingsley or Beckett?

[MaudDib]

Long term I would go with Billingsley but I think Beckett is the "safer" bet for next year. Beckett migh have some injury issues but when he pitches he is one of the best in the league plus he plays for a team that will give him plenty of run support. Billingsley should have a good year next year but not quite #1 starter material. In a couple years he probably will be but I don't see it next year.

[Yoda]

Long term I would go with Billingsley but I think Beckett is the "safer" bet for next year. Beckett migh have some injury issues but when he pitches he is one of the best in the league plus he plays for a team that will give him plenty of run support. Billingsley should have a good year next year but not quite #1 starter material. In a couple years he probably will be but I don't see it next year.

Highly disagree with your assessment of Billingsley. There are not too many 23 yo's who can post a 3.14 ERA and rack up 200 K's in his first full MLB season.

[MaudDib]

Long term I would go with Billingsley but I think Beckett is the "safer" bet for next year. Beckett migh have some injury issues but when he pitches he is one of the best in the league plus he plays for a team that will give him plenty of run support. Billingsley should have a good year next year but not quite #1 starter material. In a couple years he probably will be but I don't see it next year.

Highly disagree with your assessment of Billingsley. There are not too many 23 yo's who can post a 3.14 ERA and rack up 200 K's in his first full MLB season.

Not saying he is a bad pitcher or over-rated or anything but going into next season I wouldn't be happy if Billingsley is my #1 SP. Probably wouldn't want Beckett as my #1 either but I know that he can dominate and is one season removed from being a top 5 SP. Billingsley isn't there yet. He is close but if you are looking to win next year I would go with Beckett. If you are looking to win in a couple years the stick with Billingsley.

[Halo Homers]

Gotta go with Billingsley. I think his draft stock will rise as we approach the 2009 season.

[Yoda]

Long term I would go with Billingsley but I think Beckett is the "safer" bet for next year. Beckett migh have some injury issues but when he pitches he is one of the best in the league plus he plays for a team that will give him plenty of run support. Billingsley should have a good year next year but not quite #1 starter material. In a couple years he probably will be but I don't see it next year.

Highly disagree with your assessment of Billingsley. There are not too many 23 yo's who can post a 3.14 ERA and rack up 200 K's in his first full MLB season.

Not saying he is a bad pitcher or over-rated or anything but going into next season I wouldn't be happy if Billingsley is my #1 SP. Probably wouldn't want Beckett as my #1 either but I know that he can dominate and is one season removed from being a top 5 SP. Billingsley isn't there yet. He is close but if you are looking to win next year I would go with Beckett. If you are looking to win in a couple years the stick with Billingsley.

Still disagree. I really like the chances of Bills outproducing Beckett again (they were not even close in 08) in 09 given Beckett's injury history.

I like the fact that people still prefer Beckett over Billingsley for 09. Means Bills is still a decent bargain and Beckett clearly is not since people expect him to produce at his 07 level.

[HOOTIE]

Long term I would go with Billingsley but I think Beckett is the "safer" bet for next year. Beckett migh have some injury issues but when he pitches he is one of the best in the league

Why are folks saying Beckett is the safer pick?

In 2 of the last 3 years, he's had a era over 4. I liked Beckett more as a kid in Florida.

Guess who has the better career era+ of the 2?



Chad.

[DevilDriver]

I can't believe how many people are underrating Beckett. I guess people don't realize he has potential to be the best pitcher in baseball. There's no question in my mind he could put up his 07 numbers again provided he logs around 200 IP (which he has done in 2 of the past 3 seasons). I like Billingsley, and relative to draft position he could be better value than Beckett, but he's simply not on the same level in terms of pitching ability; Beckett has better pure stuff and much better control. Guess who had the lower FIP in 08? Beckett was even the better pitcher last season when he had a relatively down year (but I bet all of you already knew that because you don't judge how good pitchers are based on ERA). People are acting like Billingsley is close to being the same pitcher Beckett is, minus the injury concerns. The fact is that it's not that close, and chances are everyone will realize that over the course of the next few seasons.

[Yoda]

I can't believe how many people are underrating Beckett. I guess people don't realize he has potential to be the best pitcher in baseball. There's no question in my mind he could put up his 07 numbers again provided he logs around 200 IP (which he has done in 2 of the past 3 seasons). I like Billingsley, and relative to draft position he could be better value than Beckett, but he's simply not on the same level in terms of pitching ability; Beckett has better pure stuff and much better control. Guess who had the lower FIP in 08? Beckett was even the better pitcher last season when he had a relatively down year (but I bet all of you already knew that because you don't judge how good pitchers are based on ERA). People are acting like Billingsley is close to being the same pitcher Beckett is, minus the injury concerns. The fact is that it's not that close, and chances are everyone will realize that over the course of the next few seasons.

It comes down to risk/reward. Also Beckett's 07 was his career year. Are you really assuming that he will get back to that level in 09? Plus, account for his injuries and the fact that he is 4 years older than Billingsley. Finally, Beckett should cost more because he has a name. In a keeper, Billingsley is better.

[Neato Torpedo]

I can't believe how many people are underrating Beckett. I guess people don't realize he has potential to be the best pitcher in baseball. There's no question in my mind he could put up his 07 numbers again provided he logs around 200 IP (which he has done in 2 of the past 3 seasons). I like Billingsley, and relative to draft position he could be better value than Beckett, but he's simply not on the same level in terms of pitching ability; Beckett has better pure stuff and much better control. Guess who had the lower FIP in 08? Beckett was even the better pitcher last season when he had a relatively down year (but I bet all of you already knew that because you don't judge how good pitchers are based on ERA). People are acting like Billingsley is close to being the same pitcher Beckett is, minus the injury concerns. The fact is that it's not that close, and chances are everyone will realize that over the course of the next few seasons.

Beckett '07 at age 27 (his career year)
3.27 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 194 K, 200 1/3 IP, 17 HR, 189 H, 40 BB

Bills '08 at age 23
3.14 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 201 K, 200 1/3 IP, 14 HR, 188 H, 80 BB

Other than the walks, almost exactly the same. The similarity is eerie. The walks are pretty big but his BB rate decreased 10% from '07 to '08, and remember, this was Bills' second season. Beckett's BB rate was 3.94/9 in his second full season to Bills' 3.58/9 in '08.

[DevilDriver]

I can't believe how many people are underrating Beckett. I guess people don't realize he has potential to be the best pitcher in baseball. There's no question in my mind he could put up his 07 numbers again provided he logs around 200 IP (which he has done in 2 of the past 3 seasons). I like Billingsley, and relative to draft position he could be better value than Beckett, but he's simply not on the same level in terms of pitching ability; Beckett has better pure stuff and much better control. Guess who had the lower FIP in 08? Beckett was even the better pitcher last season when he had a relatively down year (but I bet all of you already knew that because you don't judge how good pitchers are based on ERA). People are acting like Billingsley is close to being the same pitcher Beckett is, minus the injury concerns. The fact is that it's not that close, and chances are everyone will realize that over the course of the next few seasons.

Beckett '07 at age 27 (his career year)
3.27 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 194 K, 200 1/3 IP, 17 HR, 189 H, 40 BB

Bills '08 at age 23
3.14 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 201 K, 200 1/3 IP, 14 HR, 188 H, 80 BB

Other than the walks, almost exactly the same. The similarity is eerie. The walks are pretty big but his BB rate decreased 10% from '07 to '08, and remember, this was Bills' second season. Beckett's BB rate was 3.94/9 in his second full season to Bills' 3.58/9 in '08.

The difference in their walk rates is huge. Billingsley was lucky to have such a low ERA; he won't be able to sustain that unless he improves his control. Look I like Billingsley. What he did at such a young age was very impressive. I just don't think he's at Beckett's level yet, and it's unlikely he gets there anytime in the near future.