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Jake Peavy

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Re: Jake Peavy

Postby raiders_umpire » Thu Jan 01, 2009 2:30 pm

Big Pimpin wrote:

I don't see any reason at all to prefer Dunn over Bradley, especially considering that Dunn is likely to have higher contract demands.





I would actually prefer Dunn by quite a bit if I were an American League team with a hole at the DH position. If a team can eliminate Dunn's defensive liabilities whether it be at DH or maybe even first base, then that team would actually be getting a very solid buy just for his offense.
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Re: Jake Peavy

Postby Big Pimpin » Thu Jan 01, 2009 2:47 pm

noseeum wrote:
AussieDodger wrote:I love Dunn, but I can see what you are saying BP. Nice work ;-D
Also, Bradley can adequately play CF, a reasonably thin position, so that makes him even more valuable.

Dunn should be a permanent DH.


Big Pimpin, I'm going to have to disagree on this one. The fact that you can use statistics to show Bradley + 60 games of replacement level player > Dunn shows there is something wrong with those statistics, not that Dunn is so terrible in the outfield that Bradley + RP is better.

Defensive statistics still have a long way to go to catch up with offensive statistics. If I thought I could get 130 games out of Bradley, I'd probably want him over Dunn, but at only 100, there is no way he's better for a host of reasons.

Here's another example comparing Manny and Crawford. Using many of the popular saber defensive stats, it looks like Crawford is just as valuable as Manny. I don't think anyone believes that.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.ph ... e-defense/

I'll add that I'm not saying I'm positive that Dunn at 150 games is better than Bradley at 100, but I would need a lot more proof than we have right now to believe he's not.


I just have a couple of things to say in response...

I would argue that the illustration I made above does not show something wrong with the stats, just that everyone and their brother seems to overestimate how good Dunn is. He just isn't that great. He rated below average last year (I'm not going to argue that he is in fact below average because I can't put that much weight in just one year of defensive metrics, but I digress...). Taking part of a season from someone who is significantly above average and part of a season from a guy who is below average will come out somewhere around average. I don't see it being a tough argument.

As to the defensive stats, I'm going to reiterate an argument I made in the Teixeira thread. I agree that there is progress yet to be made, but disagree that the metrics can't be used. If I was doing a thorough analysis, I would look at all of the good ones (UZR, PMR, Chone, etc.) over the past several years and come up with a range I was comfortable with (for the record Chone also has Bradley about 20 runs better than Dunn in a corner, but I didn't want to do the PMR calcs). I specifically said above that I didn't want to do a range here because that would have just added to the complexity of the calculation and I didn't want to go there.

Simply put, if the scouts agree that Dunn sucks, and the metrics back up that he is among the very worst defensive OFs (along with Burrell, Ibanez, Manny, Hawpe, Griffey, and Abreu), and Bradley is rated as a plus fielder and the metrics back that up, there's really no argument. To say that the numbers don't mean anything is ridiculous.

Furthermore, you want to make the argument that offensive stats are far ahead of defensive stats. I call BS on that too, because only in the last couple years has a stat come out that actually means anything when it comes to run correlation, and that's wOBA. You can what you will about OPS or OPS+ or anything else, but the fact is that couldn't turn those numbers into runs, which at the end of the day is the only thing that really matters.

As for your Manny vs. Crawford argument/link, I see no reason not to believe that they are close in value. Manny is a lazy butcher in the field. No doubt he's an offensive force when he's motivated, but if you just blow off defense and say "Manny can't be that bad out there" then you're making a $20M mistake. Unless you get second half 2008 Manny, then he can basically pull up a lawn chair and he'll be an asset to the team, but that seems like a silly guess as to how he'll perform in the future.

Anyway, defense is by far the most undervalued "asset" in baseball and certainly one that's overlooked by many (especially fantasy players that don't care about a player's defensive contributions or lack thereof). Look at Tampa, I'm pretty sure that them going from one of the worst defensive teams in baseball in 2007 to the best in 2008 was a pretty big reason why they went from last to the World Series. Some people get it, and some do not. It may not be perfect yet (probably never will be) but to just throw up your hands and say that there's too much noise and the numbers don't mean anything is silly IMO.
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Re: Jake Peavy

Postby Big Pimpin » Thu Jan 01, 2009 2:53 pm

raiders_umpire wrote:
Big Pimpin wrote:

I don't see any reason at all to prefer Dunn over Bradley, especially considering that Dunn is likely to have higher contract demands.





I would actually prefer Dunn by quite a bit if I were an American League team with a hole at the DH position. If a team can eliminate Dunn's defensive liabilities whether it be at DH or maybe even first base, then that team would actually be getting a very solid buy just for his offense.


I can see Dunn being an asset at DH, but he's been pretty bad at 1B over the years as well. If you could get him for $10M or so to play DH then I'd buy him for a year or two, but that's it. As to whether he's better than Bradley as a pure hitter I think that's arguable. Bradley was much better last year and 2006 and 2007 were pretty comparable. You'd have to go back to 2005 to find a year that Dunn crushed Bradley. If you want to make the argument that Bradley would only stay healthy enough to DH 3/4 of the season, then I can see that.

But for the record, the M's do have a hole at DH and I preferred Bradley. ;-)
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Re: Jake Peavy

Postby noseeum » Thu Jan 01, 2009 3:11 pm

Big Pimpin wrote:
noseeum wrote:
AussieDodger wrote:I love Dunn, but I can see what you are saying BP. Nice work ;-D
Also, Bradley can adequately play CF, a reasonably thin position, so that makes him even more valuable.

Dunn should be a permanent DH.


Big Pimpin, I'm going to have to disagree on this one. The fact that you can use statistics to show Bradley + 60 games of replacement level player > Dunn shows there is something wrong with those statistics, not that Dunn is so terrible in the outfield that Bradley + RP is better.

Defensive statistics still have a long way to go to catch up with offensive statistics. If I thought I could get 130 games out of Bradley, I'd probably want him over Dunn, but at only 100, there is no way he's better for a host of reasons.

Here's another example comparing Manny and Crawford. Using many of the popular saber defensive stats, it looks like Crawford is just as valuable as Manny. I don't think anyone believes that.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.ph ... e-defense/

I'll add that I'm not saying I'm positive that Dunn at 150 games is better than Bradley at 100, but I would need a lot more proof than we have right now to believe he's not.


I just have a couple of things to say in response...

I would argue that the illustration I made above does not show something wrong with the stats, just that everyone and their brother seems to overestimate how good Dunn is. He just isn't that great. He rated below average last year (I'm not going to argue that he is in fact below average because I can't put that much weight in just one year of defensive metrics, but I digress...). Taking part of a season from someone who is significantly above average and part of a season from a guy who is below average will come out somewhere around average. I don't see it being a tough argument.

As to the defensive stats, I'm going to reiterate an argument I made in the Teixeira thread. I agree that there is progress yet to be made, but disagree that the metrics can't be used. If I was doing a thorough analysis, I would look at all of the good ones (UZR, PMR, Chone, etc.) over the past several years and come up with a range I was comfortable with (for the record Chone also has Bradley about 20 runs better than Dunn in a corner, but I didn't want to do the PMR calcs). I specifically said above that I didn't want to do a range here because that would have just added to the complexity of the calculation and I didn't want to go there.

Simply put, if the scouts agree that Dunn sucks, and the metrics back up that he is among the very worst defensive OFs (along with Burrell, Ibanez, Manny, Hawpe, Griffey, and Abreu), and Bradley is rated as a plus fielder and the metrics back that up, there's really no argument. To say that the numbers don't mean anything is ridiculous.

Furthermore, you want to make the argument that offensive stats are far ahead of defensive stats. I call BS on that too, because only in the last couple years has a stat come out that actually means anything when it comes to run correlation, and that's wOBA. You can what you will about OPS or OPS+ or anything else, but the fact is that couldn't turn those numbers into runs, which at the end of the day is the only thing that really matters.

As for your Manny vs. Crawford argument/link, I see no reason not to believe that they are close in value. Manny is a lazy butcher in the field. No doubt he's an offensive force when he's motivated, but if you just blow off defense and say "Manny can't be that bad out there" then you're making a $20M mistake. Unless you get second half 2008 Manny, then he can basically pull up a lawn chair and he'll be an asset to the team, but that seems like a silly guess as to how he'll perform in the future.

Anyway, defense is by far the most undervalued "asset" in baseball and certainly one that's overlooked by many (especially fantasy players that don't care about a player's defensive contributions or lack thereof). Look at Tampa, I'm pretty sure that them going from one of the worst defensive teams in baseball in 2007 to the best in 2008 was a pretty big reason why they went from last to the World Series. Some people get it, and some do not. It may not be perfect yet (probably never will be) but to just throw up your hands and say that there's too much noise and the numbers don't mean anything is silly IMO.


I don't really think we disagree as much as you think. Defensive stats can definitely tell us a player is terrible defensively or great defensively. I agree Dunn is terrible defensively and Bradley is above average defensively. What I don't have as much confidence in is precisely how much that means to run prevention vs. run scoring to come up with a complete numerical value for a player's total contribution. I think they can get you close, but I don't think it's there yet. And when something tells me that a full season of Dunn is worth less than 100 games of Bradley, I'll be skeptical.
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Re: Jake Peavy

Postby Big Pimpin » Thu Jan 01, 2009 3:17 pm

noseeum wrote:I don't really think we disagree as much as you think. Defensive stats can definitely tell us a player is terrible defensively or great defensively. I agree Dunn is terrible defensively and Bradley is above average defensively. What I don't have as much confidence in is precisely how much that means to run prevention vs. run scoring to come up with a complete numerical value for a player's total contribution. I think they can get you close, but I don't think it's there yet. And when something tells me that a full season of Dunn is worth less than 100 games of Bradley, I'll be skeptical.


Fair enough. To be fair, I didn't say 100 games of Bradley was worth more than a full season of Dunn, I said 100 games of Bradley plus 60 games from a replacement level player was worth more than a full season of Dunn. ;-) And of course that's only true if they have to put a glove on. :-D
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Re: Jake Peavy

Postby Pogotheostrich » Thu Jan 01, 2009 9:44 pm

Big Pimpin wrote:But for the record, the M's do have a hole at DH and I preferred Bradley. ;-)

Really? Judging them purely as hitters you would rather have the older, injury prone, former attitude problem Bradley over Dunn? Even when Dunn has 10 points better career OBP and 60 points better career SLG%? :-S
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Re: Jake Peavy

Postby hybrid » Thu Jan 01, 2009 9:53 pm

I can't tell, but was this thread once about some pitcher named Peavy? ;-)
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Re: Jake Peavy

Postby noseeum » Thu Jan 01, 2009 10:45 pm

hybrid wrote:I can't tell, but was this thread once about some pitcher named Peavy? ;-)


Who? :-D
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Re: Jake Peavy

Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Sat Jan 03, 2009 10:31 am

Don't know if anyone pointed to this, but it's relevant to the discussion on measuring defense. My own opinion is that we still have a ways to go to have confidence in the precision of these measures.

http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/fil ... s_defense/
"I don't want to play golf. When I hit a ball, I want someone else to chase it."
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Re: Jake Peavy

Postby Big Pimpin » Sat Jan 03, 2009 6:40 pm

Pogotheostrich wrote:
Big Pimpin wrote:But for the record, the M's do have a hole at DH and I preferred Bradley. ;-)

Really? Judging them purely as hitters you would rather have the older, injury prone, former attitude problem Bradley over Dunn? Even when Dunn has 10 points better career OBP and 60 points better career SLG%? :-S


Yeah, I'd rather have the cheaper, more talented, switch hitting, AL & DH proven, capable fielding player who is going to age much better over Dunn. Without question. B-)

hybrid wrote:I can't tell, but was this thread once about some pitcher named Peavy? ;-)


You must be mistaken. :-D

GotowarMissAgnes wrote:Don't know if anyone pointed to this, but it's relevant to the discussion on measuring defense. My own opinion is that we still have a ways to go to have confidence in the precision of these measures.

http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/fil ... s_defense/


It's long been known that certain metrics (UZR especially) has had problems with LF in Fenway (and Enron/Minute Maid) because of the wall. And like I said before, I agree that we can't have complete confidence in any one number. But if you take other systems and multiple years and look at the entirety of the data and then put a range around it, I think you can be pretty confident in the result.

For instance, I may not agree that Manny is a -18 LF because that's his UZR number for 2007, but if I look at UZR and PMR and Chone (I didn't, I'm just making this argument) and come to the conclusion that he's roughly a -15 LF then I maybe I can reasonably think he's a -10 to -20 LF. Knowing the problems with Fenway and wanting being conservative, I would probably value him as a -5 to -15 LF. I guess my own personal opinion is simply that the defensive data and information is very useful, even if one particular metric or year or whatever isn't completely 100% reliable.
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