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Re: Jake Peavy

Postby ThatDude » Wed Dec 31, 2008 3:37 pm

Big Pimpin wrote:
ThatDude wrote:
Big Pimpin wrote:
Not sure why you'd want that. :-o He may be a slightly better hitter, but he's a much worse fielder.


Considering the fact that Dunn can play more than 100 games in a season, I'd say he's a far better hitter. Since he'll actually, ya know, be on the active roster and able to hit.


Bradley is a plus hitter and a plus fielder. Even if you play him 100 games and then some scrub in the other 60 games you'll get more production out of that duo then you would Dunn.


There's no way in hell that can be true.
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Re: Jake Peavy

Postby Big Pimpin » Wed Dec 31, 2008 3:40 pm

ThatDude wrote:There's no way in hell that can be true.


Sure it can... Who do you think would replace him for those 60 games and I'll run the numbers.
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Re: Jake Peavy

Postby ThatDude » Wed Dec 31, 2008 3:43 pm

Big Pimpin wrote:
ThatDude wrote:There's no way in hell that can be true.


Sure it can... Who do you think would replace him for those 60 games and I'll run the numbers.


It wouldn't be just one person. Fukudome, Hoffpauir, and Miles would all probably see some time there.

And exactly what numbers are you talking about running?
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Re: Jake Peavy

Postby Big Pimpin » Wed Dec 31, 2008 4:21 pm

ThatDude wrote:
Big Pimpin wrote:
ThatDude wrote:There's no way in hell that can be true.


Sure it can... Who do you think would replace him for those 60 games and I'll run the numbers.


It wouldn't be just one person. Fukudome, Hoffpauir, and Miles would all probably see some time there.

And exactly what numbers are you talking about running?


Well, you've got to look at wOBA for all the players and plate appearances to figure out their offensive contribution and then look at their defensive contributions as well.

I'll just simplify it then.

If I average the James/Marcel projections for wOBA, Bradley and Dunn come out equal (meaning I don't even have to run the numbers). CHONE actually says Bradley will be worth about 10 runs more than Dunn over the course of 150 games. So let's call offense a wash.

Defensively, let's look at the last 4 years of data. If I average them, Dunn is approximately a -16 run defensive corner OF. He's really bad. Bradley on the other hand, if I average the last 4 years together and adjust his time in center to a corner, is a +9 defensive corner OF.

So, combined we'll say over the course of a season that Bradley is worth 25 runs more than Dunn. If we say Bradley is only going to play in 100 games, that's 62.5% of the season, so Bradley is 15 runs ahead of Dunn. Now, we'll have to find a LF that Dunn can make up 15 runs on in 37.5% of the season, so he'll have to be really bad considering Dunn isn't that good. Since the offensive projections for Dunn are pretty close to last year's numbers, I'll use those in conjuction with the -16 defensive value from above, so he's about an overall +12 LF. So to make up those 15 runs, I'll have to find a -13 LF to replace Bradley with. You've got to try really hard to find someone that bad, because they don't hang around. Maybe someone who literally can't play at all anymore, like Griffey. Or Francoeur circa last year.

Honestly, Dunn is probably worse than Fukudome, or at best a very, very slight improvement.
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Re: Jake Peavy

Postby ThatDude » Wed Dec 31, 2008 4:35 pm

Big Pimpin wrote:
ThatDude wrote:
Big Pimpin wrote:
Sure it can... Who do you think would replace him for those 60 games and I'll run the numbers.


It wouldn't be just one person. Fukudome, Hoffpauir, and Miles would all probably see some time there.

And exactly what numbers are you talking about running?


Well, you've got to look at wOBA for all the players and plate appearances to figure out their offensive contribution and then look at their defensive contributions as well.

I'll just simplify it then.

If I average the James/Marcel projections for wOBA, Bradley and Dunn come out equal (meaning I don't even have to run the numbers). CHONE actually says Bradley will be worth about 10 runs more than Dunn over the course of 150 games. So let's call offense a wash.

Defensively, let's look at the last 4 years of data. If I average them, Dunn is approximately a -16 run defensive corner OF. He's really bad. Bradley on the other hand, if I average the last 4 years together and adjust his time in center to a corner, is a +9 defensive corner OF.

So, combined we'll say over the course of a season that Bradley is worth 25 runs more than Dunn. If we say Bradley is only going to play in 100 games, that's 62.5% of the season, so Bradley is 15 runs ahead of Dunn. Now, we'll have to find a LF that Dunn can make up 15 runs on in 37.5% of the season, so he'll have to be really bad considering Dunn isn't that good. Since the offensive projections for Dunn are pretty close to last year's numbers, I'll use those in conjuction with the -16 defensive value from above, so he's about an overall +12 LF. So to make up those 15 runs, I'll have to find a -13 LF to replace Bradley with. You've got to try really hard to find someone that bad, because they don't hang around. Maybe someone who literally can't play at all anymore, like Griffey. Or Francoeur circa last year.

Honestly, Dunn is probably worse than Fukudome, or at best a very, very slight improvement.


I don't care what numbers you put out there, I'll never believe that. It's not that I reject stats because they are stats, it's that I reject that notion because it's just plain crazy.

It really looks like you are completely dismissing the vast difference in offensive production between Dunn and those other schlubs that would be playing while Bradley is out. Furthermore, I have no reason to believe Bradley will keep his SLG above .500. He's done it the past two years, but was below a .500 SLG the 3 previous seasons.

I know Dunn is horrible defensively, but to say that he's so horrible that it negates all his offense is ludicrous to me. Maybe that's not what you're saying, but that's what it looks like.


Also, since either of these guys would be getting a multi-year deal, I'd rather have Dunn for his age 29-32 years than Bradley for his age 31-34 years.
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Re: Jake Peavy

Postby Big Pimpin » Wed Dec 31, 2008 5:06 pm

I am actually saying that his defense basically counteracts any offensive gain. Last year he actually rated as being a below average major league player. In fact, he was worth just a bit less than your boy Fukudome (my earlier statement about them being comparable holds true if last year's defensive metrics are to be believed... I'm willing to give Dunn the benefit of the doubt for now but it's doubtful he's that much better).

In any case, the projections I used contained significant offensive regression for Bradley so don't think I'm expecting him to repeat 2008. I think you are just underestimating how much better Bradley is than Dunn. I actually also just realized that the replacement for Bradley in those 60 games would have to be even worse than I said earlier... Dunn would have to be like 40 runs better than whoever replaced Bradley, and that guy will be close to impossible to find.

And as to the multiyear deal argument, Dunn has classic old guy skills (big power, lots of Ks) that do not age well, and his defense isn't going to get any better either.

I don't see any reason at all to prefer Dunn over Bradley, especially considering that Dunn is likely to have higher contract demands.
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Re: Jake Peavy

Postby AussieDodger » Wed Dec 31, 2008 10:10 pm

I love Dunn, but I can see what you are saying BP. Nice work ;-D
Also, Bradley can adequately play CF, a reasonably thin position, so that makes him even more valuable.

Dunn should be a permanent DH.
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Re: Jake Peavy

Postby noseeum » Wed Dec 31, 2008 10:46 pm

AussieDodger wrote:I love Dunn, but I can see what you are saying BP. Nice work ;-D
Also, Bradley can adequately play CF, a reasonably thin position, so that makes him even more valuable.

Dunn should be a permanent DH.


Big Pimpin, I'm going to have to disagree on this one. The fact that you can use statistics to show Bradley + 60 games of replacement level player > Dunn shows there is something wrong with those statistics, not that Dunn is so terrible in the outfield that Bradley + RP is better.

Defensive statistics still have a long way to go to catch up with offensive statistics. If I thought I could get 130 games out of Bradley, I'd probably want him over Dunn, but at only 100, there is no way he's better for a host of reasons.

Here's another example comparing Manny and Crawford. Using many of the popular saber defensive stats, it looks like Crawford is just as valuable as Manny. I don't think anyone believes that.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.ph ... e-defense/

I'll add that I'm not saying I'm positive that Dunn at 150 games is better than Bradley at 100, but I would need a lot more proof than we have right now to believe he's not.
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Re: Jake Peavy

Postby Neato Torpedo » Thu Jan 01, 2009 6:45 am

We're so used to evaluating a player's worth based on relatively simple, measurable methods that many of us completely forgot or overlooked (and henceforth undervalue or overvalue) how important defense is. Almost every time someone invokes defensive runs to justify or argue against a signing/trade in a real life context, at least one person indignantly responds "you're overvaluing defense, there's no way player A can be that good and player Y can be that bad". I've never seen a hitting or pitching sabermetric as frequently or consistently challenged.
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Re: Jake Peavy

Postby noseeum » Thu Jan 01, 2009 8:14 am

Neato Torpedo wrote:We're so used to evaluating a player's worth based on relatively simple, measurable methods that many of us completely forgot or overlooked (and henceforth undervalue or overvalue) how important defense is. Almost every time someone invokes defensive runs to justify or argue against a signing/trade in a real life context, at least one person indignantly responds "you're overvaluing defense, there's no way player A can be that good and player Y can be that bad". I've never seen a hitting or pitching sabermetric as frequently or consistently challenged.


I agree, but it's for a reason. There is just so much noise when it comes to defense. But I do think we'll get there eventually.

I tend to be a stat head myself, but I just can't put much weight in defensive metrics yet. I think they currently do a great job of who's better than who at what position, but I don't think we yet have an accurate representation of what that actually means to wins and losses, runs scored and prevented. At a team level, I think we can get it, but at an individual level, I don't think we're there yet.
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