8 keepers, need help!

[tyler2]

I like Gordon better. Pence will go a couple of rounds earlier in ADP so he should be the one kept, and I'd then trade for some draft picks and grab Gordon. However, sometimes this is not possible with lower level keepers and I'd rather be forced to inherit Gordon than Pence. Most of their stats are similar although Pence has more 2008 HR (25 to 16) and 2008 RBI (83 to 59). Their OPS, SB, runs, avg are all about the same.

I think they're close enough that I agree with the conclusion - if you can flip either for picks and keep the other, do it. That said, if I had to pick one, I'd take Pence. I don't think a one-year age difference is especially significant at this point, nor is the fact that Gordon was a better minor league player - they've both got a couple full seasons under their belt. Gordon is still on a somewhat weaker offensive team, in a worse offensive ballpark and in the harder league. Also, I think the fact that Pence's worst year outperformed Gordon's best year (the HR and RBI difference is significant) should weigh in Pence's favor (granted, they both only have 2 years of MLB stats to go on).

[San D]

I like Gordon better. Pence will go a couple of rounds earlier in ADP so he should be the one kept, and I'd then trade for some draft picks and grab Gordon. However, sometimes this is not possible with lower level keepers and I'd rather be forced to inherit Gordon than Pence. Most of their stats are similar although Pence has more 2008 HR (25 to 16) and 2008 RBI (83 to 59). Their OPS, SB, runs, avg are all about the same.

I think they're close enough that I agree with the conclusion - if you can flip either for picks and keep the other, do it. That said, if I had to pick one, I'd take Pence. I don't think a one-year age difference is especially significant at this point, nor is the fact that Gordon was a better minor league player - they've both got a couple full seasons under their belt. Gordon is still on a somewhat weaker offensive team, in a worse offensive ballpark and in the harder league. Also, I think the fact that Pence's worst year outperformed Gordon's best year (the HR and RBI difference is significant) should weigh in Pence's favor (granted, they both only have 2 years of MLB stats to go on).

You left out the part of my long-winded write up about Gordon trending up and Pence hoping to rebound!

[tyler2]

You left out the part of my long-winded write up about Gordon trending up and Pence hoping to rebound!

Hah, that's what I call "argument by omission." That said, my gut says that it's a pretty close call, that you're right about their relative ADP's, and that I'd like to reserve judgment til the good analytic projections (PECOTA, ZiPS, etc.) come out.

[terribletetrick]

I keep Gordon and trade Chipper and some of the extra talent for a potential top 20 player if you can. I don't see a true 1st rd draft pick in a re-draft. If you can get picks do it and draft some vets early. Chipper's DL's stints are lengthy these days. Atlanta team is re-building and it's offense is the reason. I admit I am not as high on Pence as i am on several other young OF's but understand he has been good so far. I would offer Chipper and Pence/Burnett and make a run for a player like C. Lee, C. Crawford, J. Morneau, Markakis, or any other top 20-30 player under thirty at the positions of 1b, OF, or and upgrade at SP.