Kemp or Ortiz Revisited

[AquaMan2342]

Bill James has predicted wild and crazy numbers for Papi next year (37/119).

Until now, I was going to go with Markakis, Kemp, Teixiera, Sizemore and M-Cab. Now I am thinking of substituting Kemp for Papi. I am not a blind sheep that does whatever these projections tell me, but it has definitely made me re-assess my situation.

9X9: 5 + BB, OPS, TB, K against

Have I been selling Papi short?

[oddmanout7]

I come from the camp that buys players on the way up, rather than the way down. I believe that Papi still has a few good years in him, but i could also see him decline very rapidly like Hafner.

Red Sox GM Theo Epstein said David Ortiz would not require surgery on his troublesome wrist.

Wrist injuries worry me, especially in sapping a players power. I would stay with Kemp as I see him developing into a top 10 pick in the near future.

[deadfish65]

I agree on several counts.....1. it is better to get younger players improving vs older guys breaking down. Even if Papi does hit 35HR, Id rather have Kemps 20hr 30sbs.

[The_Show]

Yea, I still prefer the younger player. He's not as injury prone and Kemp has 5 tool potential.

[fast dogs]

the bad thing for Kemp in that format is the K's against, he's still a K machine. Not sure how big of a factor that is, but its certainly worth considering...

[kab21]

I like it how the original post said that Bill James predicts some crazy numbers for Ortiz next year even though Ortiz easily put up those numbers and much more in his last 4 healthy seasons. I think the only benefit that Kemp has (SB's and also health) is really minimized in the 9x9 format.

Papi (if healthy) should easily be better than Kemp in the following
HR, R, RBI, BB, K against, OPS, and TB

Now the big question is whether or not Papi will be healthy and you would need to monitor that until your keeper deadline. But Kemp is the safer pick since he's less likely to be injured and he does have alot of upside (although I don't think he'll be a star, merely a very good player).

[San D]

With the scoring system, I'd go with Ortiz since I believe he has a few good years left and his stats would dominate Kemp's this year if reasonably healthy. Of course, I'd have to live with kicking myself over and over watching Kemp morph into a top 10 player within a few years.

[AquaMan2342]

I like it how the original post said that Bill James predicts some crazy numbers for Ortiz next year even though Ortiz easily put up those numbers and much more in his last 4 healthy seasons. I think the only benefit that Kemp has (SB's and also health) is really minimized in the 9x9 format.

The wrist injury + aging power hitter + struggling without Manny last season= me being surprised that he predicted 37 HRs next year.

[Yoda]

Ortiz has battled too many injuries in recent years. I would probably go with Kemp but not sure at the moment.

[squeezy12]

You could make a case for Kemp & Ortiz. It is basically a risk reward situation for both players. Ortiz if healthy can supply a boost in most of the categories, Kemp is young and could increase his power output. Ortiz obviously has the greater risk. I'm not sure what the roster format is but you do have Cabrera & Teixiera. So I would round out the outfield with 3 of the top 20 outfielders. With the potential for all 3 to land in the top 10 in a year or two.