Let me say first that at this point I've cleared Snakes and chris8 as being townies. If either of them are the last mafia member, we'll probably lose this game, because they'll have played it damn well.
That said, there's 3 and only 3 people who at this point, I would say are fully capable of being mafia. I'll list them in reverse order of suspicion...
3. kimchi_chigae -- He's just been entirely too quiet throughout. Though when he does speak, he does actually appear to be trying to help. He was the first, I believe, to question chris8's claims about Snakes and jfg being in cahoots early in Day 2, and actually mentioned the two other names I think are mafia (more so than him) as being suspicious in Day 2. Actually, I think KC and Inuk have a similar chance at being mafia, both of which are slim. Inuk could have slipped in and tried to inconspicuously cast the last vote on J35J, before somebody else could, to try and clear his name. I think this is unlikely, as confident as I am with my #1 mafia target, but still, something we have to consider...
2. SJNez -- Could jfg's vote of SJ on Day 1 been a last ditch effort to sneak in a vote so that if he was eventually discovered (which he was), SJ would look to be in the clear? He also mentioned J35J and Snakes as who he thought the remaining mafia members were early on (Page 2), before any real build up against J35J had amounted. This leads me to believe that he may be a townie... My main concern with SJ is that he voted for Mookie but didn't vote for J35J -- however, he's not the only person who can lay such a claim...
1. Aussie Dodger -- It is obvious at this point that Aussie isn't reading these threads thoroughly. I'd wager to say he's not even reading all the posts, based on some of the posts he's made, and things he's said. A mafia member wouldn't need to be as thorough in their reading and assessments, as long as things weren't being directed towards them, which they haven't in Day 1 or 2. He popped in on Day 2 to say that J35J and myself were suspicious, but I'm not buying it. He voted for Mookie, but didn't vote for J35J (in fact, he specifically said he wasn't suspicious of J35J, despite damn near everything pointing to the contrary -- until Page 7, where he finally said he looked suspicious after a run against J35J had already mounted), instead voting for me and then Snakes Gould. He's said numerous times how he doesn't trust me, yet he's never defended it once. At the very least, with his lack of paying attention, I can safely assume that in lynching him we will not lose our Doctor or Investigator. I think one of the 5 people who voted for J35J is the investigator, and Aussie simply hasn't been paying close enough attention for me to believe he's one of those roles, along with being the most likely last mafia member...
Note to the investigator -- stay hidden unless you've uncovered the last mafia member, and we can end this quickly. We're all but guaranteed to win at this point.
Just a note that KC had a vote in for Aussie on Day 2. That was his reasoning for not voting for J35J. He was suspicious of Aussie's actions, and Aussie never defended himself. It was around this time (Page 10), where Snakes looked to grow suspicious of Aussie as well. I didn't really notice since I was all aboard the lynch J35J wagon full steam ahead, but it's nice to see that it shouldn't be that difficult to lynch him today and have us end this thing in 3 short days.
You pretty much took the words right out of my mouth, except for 2 things. Obviously the first is that I'm not mafia...
The other has to do with your suspicion of SJNez and lack of suspicion (or mention, for that matter) of bleach.
Over the long night 2 we had, I reread the whole thing over...again.
At the beginning of day 2, before anyone even suspected him, SJNez was pointing out J35J:
If I had to guess the 2 remaining mafia, i would say it is Snakes, and J35J.
Obviously, a mafioso would want to distance himself in order to deflect guilt later on, but I sincerely believe SJ wouldn't be the first to bring up a fellow mafioso. Jump on the bandwagon, yes. But start it? My opinion on SJ is starting to swing toward townie.
Bleach, on the other hand, still has me a bit leery with the suggestion that the investigator should come out (I know you didn't actually suggest it, but you brought it up...)
I also looked back to mafia 2, when bleach was mafia and I have to say, he seems to be playing a really similar game...
My suspicions (in order from least to greatest) would be KC, bleach, and Aussie...
abrunn11... the place to go for all your sig needs...
(Past Year: 6)
Joined: 24 Jan 2006
Home Cafe: Baseball
Location: Coming down on this hospital like the hammer of Thor
With only 1 mafioso left, if we lose this one now, we should all hang our heads in shame!
Of the remaining 8 of us, I know I'm clean, and I'm 99% sure of Snakes & h0rt.
That's a good point by Inuk about SJNez being the first to voice suspicion of J. That leads me to put SJ a little lower down my list of suspects...if he is mafia, then that was a very ballsy play - although it has to be pointed out that he never actually cast a vote for J.
But what this does do for me is to virtually clear Inuk, since, if he was mafia, why would he come up with a reason to defend SJ when the latter had a number of people voting for him on Day 2? If Inuk was mafia, then surely he would want the suspicion on SJ to remain high.
That leaves me with KC, Aussie & bleach, to go along with SJ.
KC hasn't really done anything to make me suspect him - of course, that's what the mafia want to achieve, so if he is, he's done well! Not top of my list, but not cleared either.
bleach I am still wary of, after the admitted "lurking without posting" during a large portion of Day 2, and then the unexpected vote for SJ (who already had votes on him at that point). Could be a mafioso jumping on a bandwagon at a comparatively "under the radar" moment...
But I have to agree with h0rt that Aussie seems the most likely right now. Basically, everything h0rt says is spot on; just to pick up on a couple of posts from Day 2:
Aussie wrote:I've only got 10 minutes, so I'll keep this short...............
My two main suspects are h0rt and J35J.
Bleach has been deathly silent so far, so he might be worth a look, but again as I say in every game, I hate voting for people for being quiet because it hardly ever works out well. (Except if their new track coach gives long speeches. )
When I get home from work I'll sift through Day 1 again and attempt to back up my suspicions. Maybe I'll write it in crayon on my screen because apparently I am lacking in intelligence.
Suspicion of J35J out of the blue (as h0rt noticed), along with a suspicion of h0rt himself, a suspicion which is explained later because h0rt is "blahblahblah".
Then later, on page 9, he talks about his suspicions of Snakes, followed immediately by this quote:
Aussie wrote:...........And then I start reading Day 2 and see that chris has already said what I said about Snakes
I mean, what?! My post about Snakes was the 4th one on Page 1! Surely a townie would want to check through the posts from that day to see what had happened before coming out with a long post based solely on the events of Day 1?!
Aussie is definitely my #1 suspect at the moment, but I'm going to hold off a vote in case the Investigator has some information to share. I do want to give the Investigator time to reveal anything if he has anything worth revealing, and that means I need to wait until everyone's posted on this Day 3. But since it's getting late over here in the UK, that means it may not happen until after I've hit the sack, so I may have to catch up on events in the morning.
I'll be around for another half hour or so before heading off.
Right now I am suspicious mostly of Bleach and Aussie. Both have been pretty quite, and I think one of them is the last mafia. Bleach seems to have either made a big mafia slip up after his investigator comment, or he is a townie who wasnt thinking/paying attention. I dont see any reason why a townie would post that. But if he was a mafioso, i think he would've been paying more attention to his own comments.
After reading H0rt's comment about Aussie, I think that he also could be the last mafia member. In past games, Aussie isnt usually someone who posts a ton, but he usually adds in quite a bit of helpful info when he posts when he is a townie. Doesn't seem like his usual townie self.
Before I really become suspicious of KC, I will need some more reason. I am pretty sure this is his first game, so you cant really expect him to be posting a ton. Most first timers seem to either be very talkative or very quite. Right now I don't have to much to go on for him so i would say he is 3rd on my list.
my only disagreement is that sjnez could still very well be mafia. just because he started throwing j's name out there when no one was focusing on him could have been used just for a situation like this.
also, the investigator has investigated two people so far. if one of them happens to be mafia, you give it up now. the game would be over, but i hope that would be obvious.
if we're wrong, we get another shot tomorrow and the investigator gets another search.
i really dont get the whole "slip-up" with bleach. he really wasnt implying that the investigator come out. he was just bringing the role up, thats all. it wouldnt shock me to see bleach as the investigator.
I'm gone for the night now, so I've had to make the decision whether or not to vote tonight. It's difficult, but I can't bring myself to put the 3rd vote on Aussie when he's not had the chance to defend himself. Yes, if we're wrong we get another chance on Day 4, but I think we should be keeping as many townies alive as possible! So I won't vote until I've heard from Aussie - which I hope will happen before tomorrow morning!
(I'm assuming that the Investigator doesn't have anything to reveal today - if he does, that's a bonus).