i learned that in roto, no lead is safe and being in first and confident heading into september is dangerous. you're in first because you probably maximized the stats out of your players, and have no where but to go down. as more managers start giving up on their teams, the 2nd and 3rd place teams easily move past them in many categories and before you know it, they have caught up with you. if you're in first by a wide margin, you can't take it for granted and you still need to be on your toes.
this year i had a 22 pt lead in roto heading into september. i thought i had it wrapped up easily but the guy behind me was gaining points on me off all the dead managers at a crazy pace and overtook me the last week of the season. with some poor luck and bad roster management by me and his good play and incredible luck, he had a 2.5pt lead heading into the final day. it took some incredible turn of events for me to tie him on sunday and we ended up tying for 1st. still, it was a monumental collapse on my part.
in another league, i did the opposite to the guy in 1st. i spent most of the season in 10th place even as late as end of august, but as other managers turned into deadbeats, i easily moved past all of them and took first place on the final week of the season and barely held on. it's amazing how many points a team can move up if you pay attention to the category standings and strive to only play for stats that matter to you.
it's never over till it's over in roto. because so many managers give up before the end, if you're down in the standings, you're never out of it. didn't really realize this until this year. i wish more managers would realize this and stop turning into deadbeats.
oh and i need to stop over-analyzing when it comes down to crunch time. i tend to do this when things get tight and it almost cost me my leagues. i had sat roy oswalt in colorado when he pitched his shutout late this season because he is usually bad at coors. i also sat moyer at home on final saturday because he's not as reliable at home. i need to stop doing that stuff.