OK, a quick journey through the events of Day 1 has revealed some interesting nuggets. Bear with me - this will be a long post!
There was quite a lot of sparring going on between jfg - now a known mafioso - and Snakes early on. I think there is a lot of evidence to suggest that Snakes is also a mafioso, and here's why:
The very first post was Snakes voting for jfg! That's been a standard 'joke vote' in the last few games, so obviously no one takes it seriously. Then it was unvoted on the same page.
But then on page 3:
Snakes wrote:i 100 % agree. the longer the day goes, the more i was nervous about any suspicion coming my way.
unvote: yoda
vote: jfg
he seems nervous.
The vote is back on jfg. The reason given on page 9 is:
Snakes wrote:jfg is just constantly saying how he doesnt want this game to go too long and it seems like hes getting annoyed that it is. only mafia dont want people to contribute their opinions on who is/isnt mafia. its not a lot to go on right now, but its enough.
(plus we have history
)
The bit about the 'history' kind of feels like it's been thrown in to make us think that it isn't really a serious vote.
Two posts later, jfg counters by voting for Snakes, so they are now voting for each other. That's when Snakes comes back with the following:
Snakes wrote:odds of me being mafioso two games in a row is slim to none.
you on the other hand, just strengthened my suspicion.
A post which several people thought was odd, as Snakes has played enough to know that his role in the previous game is irrelevant to the odds of him having any particular role in this game. jfg is one of the guys who calls him out on it! So the sparring continues!
Then we jump forward to page 12, when Snakes unvotes jfg, and votes for Sim with this post:
Snakes wrote:i obviously know better. im also just voting for jfg, because of our history. i havent been keeping up with this go round as much as in the past. i think the 100 pages of mafia 5 wore me out. i havent seen anything that really sticks out to me, other than mookie being a crazy man, but thats normal to me.
thanks for the compliment guy
vote me off, all you'd like. if it helps you guys find mafia because of voting patterns, then ill be the sacrificial lamb.
Unvote: jfg
Vote: Sim
that 2nd vote was quick and seemed like a "oh yeah that makes sense, ill vote for this guy, because no one will suspect me".
A useful reason - a quick vote - to take the vote off jfg. Notice the mention of 'history' again regarding his vote on jfg!
Again, jfg is quick to respond (next post) with:
jfg wrote:What's this? Snakes doesn't have a hit on me? You might have a dead townie in the morning shocked to death. That said, I'm not too sure I want to reciprocate the gesture.
Surprised that Snakes no longer has a vote on him. But doesn't want to take his vote off straight away - that would look suspicious.
Then on the next page, Snakes is called out for proclaiming himself "good" when he meant "active". jfg posts this:
jfg wrote:First, you say that the odds are slim to none that you could be mafia two games in a row and now this? I was thinking of taking my vote off you but I've gotta keep it there now.
Again, the removal of his vote on Snakes is delayed.
But not forever, as on page 17:
jfg wrote:Everybody seems to be taking off their votes on Snakes despite some red flags. To tell you the truth, I'm not sold on him either and really was planning to unvote him until he started talking about odds and his greatness... Still, that's not enough, even though nothing is really enough on day 1. I'm going to put a vote on SJNez just to see what he has to say.
Unvote: Snakes
Vote: SJNez
The vote is finally off Snakes - reluctantly, but he wasn't really "sold on him" anyway!
Later on (page 19), Snakes joins jfg in voting for SJNez - which is the only thing which really worries me, because it could be a huge risk to be seen to be voting for the same person. That said, with so many votes on Mookie at the time, it could also be seen as a 'safe' vote in that neither of them are connected with what at the time was a pretty much inevitable lynching.
Now, all that leads me to believe something which I suspected on Day 1 - and said here on page 12:
chris8 wrote:This whole thing between Snakes & jfg seems very odd to me. Are they genuinely antagonising one another, or just playing their own little game?! The more I think about it, the more likely it seems to me that they are in cahoots and just pretending to have their own little war of words.
I really do believe that Snakes - who was already on my radar - is also part of the Mafia. Now that we know jfg's role, the exchanges they had on Day 1 feel like a setup so that if one of them was caught, the other wouldn't be suspected.
I should say that I have come up with this theory by assuming Snakes is mafia. And, of course, if we think something is true, then it is often easy to find evidence to support our theories! I could be terribly wrong, but will put my money where my mouth is and vote the way I think.
Vote: SnakesIf people can find a flaw in my reasoning, then please point it out! I'd hate to start a bandwagon that ends up with the lynching of an innocent townie! Let me know what you think, please!
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by teddy ballgame » Mon Sep 29, 2008 2:10 pm 
