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What, if any, 2009 moves do NYY need to make?

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Re: What, if any, 2009 moves do NYY need to make?

Postby BronXBombers51 » Mon Sep 22, 2008 7:52 pm

dmacblue wrote:
Yoda wrote:If Wang and Joba stayed healthy in the rotation pitching like they should then they would be in the playoffs.



I have nowhere near your baseball knowledge, and most certainly nowhere close to your NNY knowledge, but shouldnt the team with the (continual) highest salary be planning ahead for the liklihood of 2 SP going down during the course of the season & be in a place to replace them :-?


I don't see why their budget is relevant. Because they spend $200 million means their injuries don't affect them? Of course they do. If you want to argue that the Yankees are a poorly structured team financially, I will be the first to back you up. But I don't see the connection you're trying to make.
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Re: What, if any, 2009 moves do NYY need to make?

Postby KCollins1304 » Mon Sep 22, 2008 8:52 pm

dmacblue wrote:
Yoda wrote:If Wang and Joba stayed healthy in the rotation pitching like they should then they would be in the playoffs.



I have nowhere near your baseball knowledge, and most certainly nowhere close to your NNY knowledge, but shouldnt the team with the (continual) highest salary be planning ahead for the liklihood of 2 SP going down during the course of the season & be in a place to replace them :-?


Are you suggesting that they should have a whole other 25 man roster of mlb ready players waiting in the minors in case people get injured?
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Re: What, if any, 2009 moves do NYY need to make?

Postby jfg » Mon Sep 22, 2008 9:20 pm

I'd quit watching baseball if stars signed big contracts to have a shot of playing in the big leagues! :-b

Unless I'm reading it wrong doesn't Lincecum have 23 Win Shares? These guys make one stat and then have eight million other stats that sound exactly like it so I'm not sure. But, I'm guessing that's right... even though Lincecum had only around 15 wins as of 9/7 (update the site much?) his stats should have contributed to 23. If I'm right Wang and Joba when they pitched this year contributed to 16 wins. Take away their playing time and I'm sure the difference would have made up the ground to get in the playoffs even if you do take other teams injuries into account.

[url]
http://www.hardballtimes.com/thtstats/m ... son_filter[/url]

You can click on the link and then just sort by SP.
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Re: What, if any, 2009 moves do NYY need to make?

Postby bigwords » Mon Sep 22, 2008 9:25 pm

[quote="Yoda"]
I'll have to look at it later when I have more time but your calculation doesn't add up. If you can show how you arrived at your numbers then you will save me the time trying to figure out what you did.
[/quote]

They really aren't my numbers. They are Bill James' numbers. Read the linked article above if you want to know more.

But it makes logical sense if you think about it a different way. Let's say Wang gives up 3.5 runs per game. Let's say the pitcher that replaces him gives up 4.5 runs. So Wang saves a run per game. Will that run equate to a win in every one of those games he pitches? No. Will that run make a difference in 33% of the games he pitches? Probably still too high. But there is a percentage that you can figure out, looking at the stats. You can thus figure out how his performance translates into a teams total wins. In fact you can even break it down per pitch.

Also, Joba really was only out a month. He really missed only 6 turns in the rotation.

Yankees have been hit with injuries, but Wang was their biggest injury. Given Molina's defensive strength, I'm not even sure how terrible the Posada loss was to the team.

The Yankees have a pretty good farm system in terms of pitching prospects. I think they'll better be able to withstand pitching injuries in the future. Not the biggest fan of Brian Cashman, but in that respect, he's done a good job.
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Re: What, if any, 2009 moves do NYY need to make?

Postby Yoda » Mon Sep 22, 2008 9:40 pm

I know how Winshares work but you are passing your numbers off as a fact like Lincecum only won 8 games by himself. I would like to know how you arrived there. It shouldn't be that hard to explain. This isn't exactly rocket science.

Combine Ponson, Rasner, Pavano and Kennedy's starts and see what your ERA is. It is 5.50+. It isn't that far fetched that a pitcher who gives up 1/2 to 2 less runs per game over the entire season to earn 7 extra Ws over those guys. Wang won 19 games in 06 and also 19 games in 07 by himself. Joba went down just as he started coming into his own. And this is even before we account for injuries to Hughes, Arod, Damon, Matsui, Posada, etc.
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Re: What, if any, 2009 moves do NYY need to make?

Postby RedSoxNation04 » Mon Sep 22, 2008 9:48 pm

Well, its not like the Sox, Rays and Jays, for that matter, haven't had their share of injuries either. We can argue injuries all we want, but it happens to every team and either you overcome the injuries or you fall out of contention early.

Yanks will rebound next year and be in the mix - ownership won't allow anything less with the opening of the new stadium.

I'm sure Pettitte will be back as well on a 1 year incentive laden contract. He's been a Yankee for too long not to.

Posada isn't going anywhere - nobody is picking up that contract and I doubt Cano gets traded either, especially for Kemp. No way that's happening.

I don't disagree that the Yanks need to go out and get Sabathia or Teix and I wouldn't be surprised to see them grab one if not both before its all said and done. However, it was posted somewhere a page or two back that the Yanks should just sign CC to a 5-year contract and call it a day. Not going to be that easy. After what Santana got, CC is not going anywhere "just" for five years. This is his payday folks, it will be much more than 5 years...
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Re: What, if any, 2009 moves do NYY need to make?

Postby sblinyy » Mon Sep 22, 2008 10:03 pm

RedSoxNation04 wrote:I'm sure Pettitte will be back as well on a 1 year incentive laden contract. He's been a Yankee for too long not to.

Posada isn't going anywhere - nobody is picking up that contract and I doubt Cano gets traded either, especially for Kemp. No way that's happening.



I can't see pettitte coming back in '09. As solid of a season he had, I think now would be the perfect time for him to retire(it being the last season at yankee stadium). He has pretty much accomplished everything I'm sure he wanted to in his career.

I can't see Cano getting traded, but as much as I like cano, if the dodgers were willing to put up kemp I would take that deal and run.

Mussina will resign for a 1 year deal. I think they should sign sabathia long-term, and if they can't get Tex, Then sign Giambi to a 1 or 2 year deal. I wouldn't be opposed to resigning Abreu either.
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Re: What, if any, 2009 moves do NYY need to make?

Postby neoforce » Mon Sep 22, 2008 11:33 pm

sblinyy wrote:
RedSoxNation04 wrote:I'm sure Pettitte will be back as well on a 1 year incentive laden contract. He's been a Yankee for too long not to. <stuff removed>



I can't see pettitte coming back in '09. As solid of a season he had, I think now would be the perfect time for him to retire(it being the last season at yankee stadium). He has pretty much accomplished everything I'm sure he wanted to in his career.

<stuff removed>


I agree with sblinyy... I doubt Pettitte comes back. I'm actually really curious about his next and last start of the season. Lets assume the Yankees are out of it by then. I just wonder if he would sit out his last start. I know it isn't like him to not want to win, even a game that doesn't mean anything. But imagine if he is thinking of retiring. Wouldn't it be better to have is last game ever be that last game at the stadium?
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Re: What, if any, 2009 moves do NYY need to make?

Postby dmacblue » Mon Sep 22, 2008 11:43 pm

KCollins1304 wrote:
dmacblue wrote:
Yoda wrote:If Wang and Joba stayed healthy in the rotation pitching like they should then they would be in the playoffs.



I have nowhere near your baseball knowledge, and most certainly nowhere close to your NNY knowledge, but shouldnt the team with the (continual) highest salary be planning ahead for the liklihood of 2 SP going down during the course of the season & be in a place to replace them :-?


Are you suggesting that they should have a whole other 25 man roster of mlb ready players waiting in the minors in case people get injured?


NO! But with the money they have available, I would suggest they have a roster filled with the very best......which evidently they didnt :-t
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Re: What, if any, 2009 moves do NYY need to make?

Postby BronXBombers51 » Mon Sep 22, 2008 11:49 pm

dmacblue wrote:
KCollins1304 wrote:
dmacblue wrote:

I have nowhere near your baseball knowledge, and most certainly nowhere close to your NNY knowledge, but shouldnt the team with the (continual) highest salary be planning ahead for the liklihood of 2 SP going down during the course of the season & be in a place to replace them :-?


Are you suggesting that they should have a whole other 25 man roster of mlb ready players waiting in the minors in case people get injured?


NO! But with the money they have available, I would suggest they have a roster filled with the very best......which evidently they didnt :-t


Why would you suggest that? A $500 P.O.S. is still a P.O.S..
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