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What, if any, 2009 moves do NYY need to make?

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Re: What, if any, 2009 moves do NYY need to make?

Postby Yoda » Mon Sep 22, 2008 6:40 pm

If Wang and Joba stayed healthy in the rotation pitching like they should then they would be in the playoffs.
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Re: What, if any, 2009 moves do NYY need to make?

Postby bigwords » Mon Sep 22, 2008 6:46 pm

Your points are good, BronXBombers51. I stated earlier in the thread that the Yankees are in a tough position due to contracts and players who will be hard to trade and almost impossible to move. I'd love to move Jeter to dh/1b, but I realize that it probably won't happen.

A few quibbles:

I do think that Cano might go. There's a lot of buzz he might be traded.

I don't think Melky is a "great" defender. Compared to the rest, perhaps, but overall, he's not great.

I'd like to see them upgrade defensively at C, 1b (hello, Teixeira), 2b (hello, Mark Ellis), CF, and either LF or RF (wherever Nady isn't playing). I'd like to do that by not re-signing guys and trading others. Can they trade Matsui or Posada? It probably would be tough, but not impossible. That would be a start. I just don't see them making the playoffs again without these moves, even if they sign Sabatthia.
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Re: What, if any, 2009 moves do NYY need to make?

Postby BronXBombers51 » Mon Sep 22, 2008 6:53 pm

bigwords wrote:Your points are good, BronXBombers51. I stated earlier in the thread that the Yankees are in a tough position due to contracts and players who will be hard to trade and almost impossible to move. I'd love to move Jeter to dh/1b, but I realize that it probably won't happen.

A few quibbles:

I do think that Cano might go. There's a lot of buzz he might be traded.

I don't think Melky is a "great" defender. Compared to the rest, perhaps, but overall, he's not great.

I'd like to see them upgrade defensively at C, 1b (hello, Teixeira), 2b (hello, Mark Ellis), CF, and either LF or RF (wherever Nady isn't playing). I'd like to do that by not re-signing guys and trading others. Can they trade Matsui or Posada? It probably would be tough, but not impossible. That would be a start. I just don't see them making the playoffs again without these moves, even if they sign Sabatthia.


I haven't heard any Cano rumors, but I haven't been that in the loop recently. What are they going to swing him for? I'm wondering what might be a worthwhile deal. Bringing in Teix would obviously be a big upgrade to the team in all facets, I'm just not convinced he's leaving LA. I think it's possible that Matsui is moved since this is the final year of his contract, but I have a hard time believing that someone would take Posada's contract, even if the Yankees were willing to trade him, which I don't think they are.

The more I think about it, the more I wonder what will be done about the outfield. Losing Abreu also leaves a big gap in the 3-hole of the lineup. Who can adequately fill that hole? If they get Teixeira, fine, but what if they don't? There's nobody else in that lineup that I'd feel confident with hitting in that slot at this point, unless they went out and got someone like Manny, which is a big mistake unless it's an extremely short-term deal.
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Re: What, if any, 2009 moves do NYY need to make?

Postby bigwords » Mon Sep 22, 2008 6:56 pm

"If Wang and Joba stayed healthy in the rotation pitching like they should then they would be in the playoffs."

Doubt it. As good a season as Tim Lincecum has had, he's only contributed 8 wins to the Giants ledger, according to the stat known as Win Shares. Brandon Webb? 6 contributed wins. Jake Peavy? 5 contributed wins. (I won't get into the complicated stat, but if anybody really cares, go here: http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/artic ... e-arrived/)

Yankees are 8 games out of first and 6 1/2 games out of the wild card so I just don't see a full season of Wang and Joba making the difference. Seems to make sense. But sorry, stats don't bear you out.
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Re: What, if any, 2009 moves do NYY need to make?

Postby bigwords » Mon Sep 22, 2008 7:00 pm

MLBTradeRumors picked up this tidbit from Sports Illustrated today:

"The following three names are being bandied about in the Yankees' clubhouse for center field next year: Nate McLouth, David DeJesus, and Matt Kemp. DeJesus seems the most reasonable target, though Robinson Cano could be part of a package for Kemp. DeJesus, it should be noted, played a poor center field this year according to the plus/minus system."

Hmm, maybe the Mets would take Posada.

And how about Matt Holliday? With Cano and a pitching prospect as trade pieces, it's not impossible.
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Re: What, if any, 2009 moves do NYY need to make?

Postby Yoda » Mon Sep 22, 2008 7:05 pm

bigwords wrote:"If Wang and Joba stayed healthy in the rotation pitching like they should then they would be in the playoffs."

Doubt it. As good a season as Tim Lincecum has had, he's only contributed 8 wins to the Giants ledger, according to the stat known as Win Shares. Brandon Webb? 6 contributed wins. Jake Peavy? 5 contributed wins. (I won't get into the complicated stat, but if anybody really cares, go here: http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/artic ... e-arrived/)

Yankees are 8 games out of first and 6 1/2 games out of the wild card so I just don't see a full season of Wang and Joba making the difference. Seems to make sense. But sorry, stats don't bear you out.


Where are you getting those figures?

Joba and Wang starting every 5th day all season would have easily netted 6 or 7 Ws.
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Re: What, if any, 2009 moves do NYY need to make?

Postby KCollins1304 » Mon Sep 22, 2008 7:10 pm

I don't think Posada or Cano are going anywhere nor should they. The both just signed contracts earlier this year and both of their values have plummeted. I don't think there is any way Cano can be as bad as he was this season.

When your team gives starts for the entire 2nd half to Ponson/Rasner/Pavano, you're not making the playoffs. With Joba, Hughes, and Wang healthy all season, I say they would have made the playoffs. When you throw in an average season from Posada, which is worlds better than what Molina/Moeller/Pudge have done, it's not hard to see why they aren't in the post season.
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Re: What, if any, 2009 moves do NYY need to make?

Postby bigwords » Mon Sep 22, 2008 7:12 pm

Hardball Times.

Winshares divided by three tells you how many wins a pitcher has contributed to his team.

http://www.hardballtimes.com/thtstats/m ... ESC&page=1

A pitcher may win a game, but that doesn't mean he's solely responsible for the win. He's only wins a game if his offense scores runs and if his defense contributes too. Thus, Lincecum may have 17 wins, but he may be solely responsible for 8 of them. Every game, each player is apportioned a "share" of the win and the shares are added to total a player's "win shares." Like I said, too complicated to go into. But it's highly unlikely that Joba and Wang would have netted the 7 wins needed to make the playoffs. And like I also pointed out, if you gave Boston and Tampa a fully healthy slate too, that would also minimize any differential gains.
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Re: What, if any, 2009 moves do NYY need to make?

Postby Yoda » Mon Sep 22, 2008 7:20 pm

bigwords wrote:Hardball Times.

Winshares divided by three tells you how many wins a pitcher has contributed to his team.

http://www.hardballtimes.com/thtstats/m ... ESC&page=1

A pitcher may win a game, but that doesn't mean he's solely responsible for the win. He's only wins a game if his offense scores runs and if his defense contributes too. Thus, Lincecum may have 17 wins, but he may be solely responsible for 8 of them. Every game, each player is apportioned a "share" of the win and the shares are added to total a player's "win shares." Like I said, too complicated to go into. But it's highly unlikely that Joba and Wang would have netted the 7 wins needed to make the playoffs. And like I also pointed out, if you gave Boston and Tampa a fully healthy slate too, that would also minimize any differential gains.


I'll have to look at it later when I have more time but your calculation doesn't add up. If you can show how you arrived at your numbers then you will save me the time trying to figure out what you did.

I just brought up Joba and Wang but they lost a lot of games solely due to injuries. 7 games is not a lot when you add up the injuries they suffered this year.
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Re: What, if any, 2009 moves do NYY need to make?

Postby dmacblue » Mon Sep 22, 2008 7:44 pm

Yoda wrote:If Wang and Joba stayed healthy in the rotation pitching like they should then they would be in the playoffs.



I have nowhere near your baseball knowledge, and most certainly nowhere close to your NNY knowledge, but shouldnt the team with the (continual) highest salary be planning ahead for the liklihood of 2 SP going down during the course of the season & be in a place to replace them :-?
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