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So where are you all drafting Timmy in '09???

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Re: So where are you all drafting Timmy in '09???

Postby rjforlife » Fri Sep 19, 2008 3:57 pm

bigwords wrote:Back to the question that heads this topic, though, I wouldn't consider drafting Lincecum until the 6th or 7th round. I just don't consider his VORP in most leagues to be worth it. Goes for most top pitchers too. I also believe in the fickleness of pitchers in general.

I may be wrong, but I haven't lost a league in five years, including some very big money leagues and a few 20-team leagues. And I usually do very very well in the pitching categories too. So go figure.



Can we get this guy a trophy for greatest fantasy baseball player of all time or something? I feel like him walking around without everyone knowing how good he is before we start arguing isnt fair to anyone. ;-7

In all seriousness, I think the problem with this discussion is that people are bringing their pitcher/hitter biases into the equation and I dont think that is the issue we intended to dissect in this thread. That proverbial horse is dead. I think the main point is that Lincecum should be one of the top 5 pitchers taken overall, and should be going right where you had guys like Santana/Peavy going last season and the other 1/2 pitchers the year before. As great as Lince is and as much as I like him, I think it is safe to say he is not worth taking earlier than you would have taken any other top pitcher in any other year.
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Re: So where are you all drafting Timmy in '09???

Postby Yoda » Fri Sep 19, 2008 4:11 pm

bigwords wrote:Back to the question that heads this topic, though, I wouldn't consider drafting Lincecum until the 6th or 7th round. I just don't consider his VORP in most leagues to be worth it. Goes for most top pitchers too. I also believe in the fickleness of pitchers in general.

I may be wrong, but I haven't lost a league in five years, including some very big money leagues and a few 20-team leagues. And I usually do very very well in the pitching categories too. So go figure.


This post gets Yoda's seal of approval

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Re: So where are you all drafting Timmy in '09???

Postby bigwords » Fri Sep 19, 2008 4:13 pm

Ha. OK. Point taken. Yoda is the instigator, in fairness.

Actually, though, the topic asks where you'd draft Timmy. Don't see any reason why we're not allowed to bring pitcher/hitter biases into this, just as others will bring old/young biases, or injury-fear biases, or whatever else. There isn't an objective answer after all.

For those considering where to draft Lincecum next year, it might help to know there are some out there who wouldn't draft him until the 7th round. Maybe. Maybe not. I'm also 100 percent sure that I'm not alone.

Also, is there really a huge difference if he's drafted Top 5 or Top 10? I don't think there is, to tell you the truth. Isn't that an issue that's the proverbial dead horse already dissected without satisfying conclusion?
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Re: So where are you all drafting Timmy in '09???

Postby KCollins1304 » Fri Sep 19, 2008 6:19 pm

bigwords wrote:Depends on the format of the league. But yes, that would definitely affect trade discussions.

Also, I'd probably take Hamilton or maybe even Quentin over Lincecum. Finding great pitching in the draft -- even in later rounds -- is a lot easier than finding superstars in later rounds. I might take Hamilton in the early double digit rounds or Quentin in the 20s over Lincecum at round 25. Yup, Quentin over Lincecum.

And no, Yoda, you don't need to opine over how crazy you think that is. Your disagreement over anything I have to say is quite assumed.


I wouldn't touch Quentin with his broken wrist, especially not give up Lincecum for him.
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Re: So where are you all drafting Timmy in '09???

Postby B-Chad » Fri Sep 19, 2008 9:44 pm

I personally like the differing views on what the title of the thread means. Personally I took the question as drafting Lincecum in relation to other pitchers, but that's just my take. I also look at it in terms of a 5x5 re-draft league, since there aren't specifications stating otherwise.

Looking at the question from how I view it, I'd say I'd take the top 10 pitchers in this order, ranked in tiers just to show how I value the pitchers around Lincecum as well.
I'll add notes with the pitchers as well.

Tier 1 (I could see arguments for any of the tier 1 pitchers going before Lincecum)

1- Johan Santana: Considering he's having a "down year" of sorts by his standards, his numbers are still sparkling. This is his first year in a new league, and though I would have expected his K rate to go up, and it instead took a nose dive in the other direction, he still struck out 187 batters, and should break the 200 threshhold. If his k-rate returns next year, he's the number one pitcher I think, and I feel he's the safest bet to yield top 3 pitching stats, so I'll take the safe route and go Santana 1.

2- Tim Lincecum: If Peavy hadn't missed time this season, he'd probably be nestled in at the number 2 spot, however, that's not the case. Lincecum, with another start, should break the 250 strike out mark this year, nothing short ace material. He pitches in an equally pitcher friendly ballpark to PETCO, and oddly enough may have a better supporting cast (if nothing else, younger and improving, hopefully improving as I'm a Giants fan :-b ). He didn't miss time this year, and there are no signs of arm/shoulder problems, I'll give him a slight nod since he's a bit younger, and may actually have a higher ceiling as he's making his way toward his peak years.

3- Jake Peavy: Gotta love his consistancy. Also have to love his ballpark. He's striking out about a batter an IP, and his ERA is below 3.00 again. His WHIP is fantastic and right in line with his career WHIP. Just assuming he posts career averages, he'll post ace stuff, and is a relatively safe bet to post top 5 pitching numbers. The only potential red flag is the time he missed earlier this season, though he's shown no lingering effects since.

4- Dan Haren: I think he's a tier 1 starter, and better then teammate Brandon Webb, and super stud this year C.C. Sabathia. This may throw some people a loop, but he's made a seamless and better transition to the NL, I'd argue, then Johan Santana even. He's struck out 193 batters in 203 IP which is a career best rate. He's done a better job of keeping the ball in the ballpark (odd considering he's coming to Arizona which has a much more hitter friendly ballpark then Oakland), and he's walking no one. His WHIP is first rate, and his 3.24 ERA is also very good.

5- Brandon Webb: He's a workhorse, that's for certain, he relies on his power sinker to keep pitch counts low and record outs. Unlike some sinker ballers he k's his share of hitters though (170 in 212 IP). I gave the nod to Haren because of his lower whip and better k-rate. Webb isn't far behind, but I just don't see his ceiling being quite as high as that of Haren.

6- C.C. Sabathia: He would likely at least be in front of both Webb and Haren if not for my fear of the Brewers complete abuse of C.C. His pitch counts have been pretty bad, and the Brewers are reaping the benefits of a work horse who they don't have to be concerned with staying healthy next year. Sure, the argument can be made for Lincecum being overused, but Lincecum also don't have the wear on his tires of 241 Inning season in 2007 and a number of near 200 IP seasons prior to that. As I've said before, pitching is not a natural motion, and that type of mileage, coupled with overusage by the Brewers makes me a little nervous. I also don't like the idea of not knowing where he'll be next year, and how he'll react to getting paid. I almost dumped him to tier 2 because of these concerns, but a simple look at his numbers wouldn't allow me to do such an absurd thing :-b

Tier 2

7- Cole Hamels: Nearly makes tier 1, but has seen a k-rate drop, and pitches in a miserable home ballpark, and though it's something he can't control, is a fact none-the-less. He's also the first pitcher I couldn't see an argument for taking over Lincecum. The fact is, he's young and seeing a spike in IP this year as well, and simply doesn't possess the k-rate Lincecum does or the home ballpark.

..... So I've changed my mind, I don't want to divulge too far from the topic of the Lincecum thread (besides... ranking the top 10 pitchers for next year is too tough past this right now :-D )

I included the other pitchers, not to create other debates, but more or less to show how Tim Lincecum fits into my ranking of ace pitchers, and why I have him where I do. That said, I think arguments could be made for other pitchers, this is just my take. Without looking at whether I'd draft a pitcher early enough to get any of the above pitchers, and looking at it in a bit of a bubble assuming everyone had to take a pitcher the same round, this is the order I'd select them in.
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Re: So where are you all drafting Timmy in '09???

Postby J35J » Fri Sep 19, 2008 9:49 pm

B-Chad wrote:I personally like the differing views on what the title of the thread means. Personally I took the question as drafting Lincecum in relation to other pitchers, but that's just my take. I also look at it in terms of a 5x5 re-draft league, since there aren't specifications stating otherwise.

Looking at the question from how I view it, I'd say I'd take the top 10 pitchers in this order, ranked in tiers just to show how I value the pitchers around Lincecum as well.
I'll add notes with the pitchers as well.

Tier 1 (I could see arguments for any of the tier 1 pitchers going before Lincecum)

1- Johan Santana: Considering he's having a "down year" of sorts by his standards, his numbers are still sparkling. This is his first year in a new league, and though I would have expected his K rate to go up, and it instead took a nose dive in the other direction, he still struck out 187 batters, and should break the 200 threshhold. If his k-rate returns next year, he's the number one pitcher I think, and I feel he's the safest bet to yield top 3 pitching stats, so I'll take the safe route and go Santana 1.

2- Tim Lincecum: If Peavy hadn't missed time this season, he'd probably be nestled in at the number 2 spot, however, that's not the case. Lincecum, with another start, should break the 250 strike out mark this year, nothing short ace material. He pitches in an equally pitcher friendly ballpark to PETCO, and oddly enough may have a better supporting cast (if nothing else, younger and improving, hopefully improving as I'm a Giants fan :-b ). He didn't miss time this year, and there are no signs of arm/shoulder problems, I'll give him a slight nod since he's a bit younger, and may actually have a higher ceiling as he's making his way toward his peak years.

3- Jake Peavy: Gotta love his consistancy. Also have to love his ballpark. He's striking out about a batter an IP, and his ERA is below 3.00 again. His WHIP is fantastic and right in line with his career WHIP. Just assuming he posts career averages, he'll post ace stuff, and is a relatively safe bet to post top 5 pitching numbers. The only potential red flag is the time he missed earlier this season, though he's shown no lingering effects since.

4- Dan Haren: I think he's a tier 1 starter, and better then teammate Brandon Webb, and super stud this year C.C. Sabathia. This may throw some people a loop, but he's made a seamless and better transition to the NL, I'd argue, then Johan Santana even. He's struck out 193 batters in 203 IP which is a career best rate. He's done a better job of keeping the ball in the ballpark (odd considering he's coming to Arizona which has a much more hitter friendly ballpark then Oakland), and he's walking no one. His WHIP is first rate, and his 3.24 ERA is also very good.

5- Brandon Webb: He's a workhorse, that's for certain, he relies on his power sinker to keep pitch counts low and record outs. Unlike some sinker ballers he k's his share of hitters though (170 in 212 IP). I gave the nod to Haren because of his lower whip and better k-rate. Webb isn't far behind, but I just don't see his ceiling being quite as high as that of Haren.

6- C.C. Sabathia: He would likely at least be in front of both Webb and Haren if not for my fear of the Brewers complete abuse of C.C. His pitch counts have been pretty bad, and the Brewers are reaping the benefits of a work horse who they don't have to be concerned with staying healthy next year. Sure, the argument can be made for Lincecum being overused, but Lincecum also don't have the wear on his tires of 241 Inning season in 2007 and a number of near 200 IP seasons prior to that. As I've said before, pitching is not a natural motion, and that type of mileage, coupled with overusage by the Brewers makes me a little nervous. I also don't like the idea of not knowing where he'll be next year, and how he'll react to getting paid. I almost dumped him to tier 2 because of these concerns, but a simple look at his numbers wouldn't allow me to do such an absurd thing :-b

Tier 2

7- Cole Hamels: Nearly makes tier 1, but has seen a k-rate drop, and pitches in a miserable home ballpark, and though it's something he can't control, is a fact none-the-less. He's also the first pitcher I couldn't see an argument for taking over Lincecum. The fact is, he's young and seeing a spike in IP this year as well, and simply doesn't possess the k-rate Lincecum does or the home ballpark.

..... So I've changed my mind, I don't want to divulge too far from the topic of the Lincecum thread (besides... ranking the top 10 pitchers for next year is too tough past this right now :-D )

I included the other pitchers, not to create other debates, but more or less to show how Tim Lincecum fits into my ranking of ace pitchers, and why I have him where I do. That said, I think arguments could be made for other pitchers, this is just my take. Without looking at whether I'd draft a pitcher early enough to get any of the above pitchers, and looking at it in a bit of a bubble assuming everyone had to take a pitcher the same round, this is the order I'd select them in.



I don't think I've ever seen a post from you that was less than 2-3 paragraphs long.... :-D
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Re: So where are you all drafting Timmy in '09???

Postby mweir145 » Fri Sep 19, 2008 9:51 pm

Does everybody just forget about Halladay, or do you guys just believe that guys like Haren and Webb are better than him?
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Re: So where are you all drafting Timmy in '09???

Postby B-Chad » Fri Sep 19, 2008 10:09 pm

I hope my lengthy posts are alright, I just tend to like to get all my thoughts out at once, as opposed to in multiple posts, therefore you are correct in noting most of my posts are multiple paragraphs long :-b . To answer the question about Halladay, no I don't forget him. He's on my most important fantasy squad, and a stud. However the scoring in that league is considerably different then a standard 5x5, and includes CG's along with numerous other cats. In 5x5 leagues I would say he's closer to a tier 2 pitcher then a staff ace, especially in roto league with IP limits. His k-rate is much improved this year, so this has been an ace like season for him. That said, I don't see him maintaining it. His ratios are great, no argument, but wins are flukey, and I personally need more K's from my ace then I think Halladay will bring. I would rank Halladay anywhere 8-12 in a 5x5 league. With H2H scoring and no innings limits, I would likely bump him up to 6-10. That said, I would take both Haren and Webb over him.
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Re: So where are you all drafting Timmy in '09???

Postby mweir145 » Fri Sep 19, 2008 11:35 pm

I'm of the belief that Halladay was actually fully healthy for the first time in years this season, and assuming he remains that way, I wouldn't expect to see his strikeout totals drop that much, if at all.
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Re: So where are you all drafting Timmy in '09???

Postby Field » Sat Sep 20, 2008 2:26 am

mweir145 wrote:Does everybody just forget about Halladay, or do you guys just believe that guys like Haren and Webb are better than him?


I prefer Halladay to Haren who I expect to disappoint next season. He's probably even with the likes of Webb and Hamels. They have the age factor working in their favor which is why Halladay gets talked about less. After what I have seen this year, I would have no qualms about taking Halladay as my ace.
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