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by **Inukchuk** » Fri Sep 12, 2008 6:50 am

What a season he's having so far. As a $5 keeper next year, I have to hold on to him. I am concerned, however. His numbers in the minors weren't overly dominating, and he's had some rough seasons in the bigs.

I'm curious what you guys think of him. Has he turned things around, or was 08 a special year for him leading to a disappointing 09?

by **J35J** » Fri Sep 12, 2008 8:30 am

He's a hard one to figure out. He's got very solid stuff but just hasn't put it together, mainly thanks to his inconsistant command. His command this year has be very good so if he's got that put in check then you can definately count on another great season and many good seasons to come.

With that said, in 4 of the 6 months he has played in this year he has a 3.99ERA and a 1.21WHIP. When you add in his stellar April and August then you get his very good season totals.

Anyway, I likely won't own him in any of my leagues next year. Not that I don't like him, because I think he can be very good, I just think there will likely be others who like him a little more than I do.

by **RedSoxNation04** » Fri Sep 12, 2008 9:19 am

Yeah, I have to agree with J here. I just don't see him as being all that reliable and there will definitely be someone who will overpay for him.

by **markj11** » Fri Sep 12, 2008 9:30 am

I always look for bargains in the SP department and I don't see him as one next year.

by **Yoda** » Fri Sep 12, 2008 9:47 am

I think he will be roughly the same as this year. HIs biggest problem was pitching on the road and HRs. He has been been very consistent both at home and on the road. Also got HR under control. He has maintained great K and BB ratios all season so if he continues this trend then there is no reason why he can't get better. A lot of people forget that he is still only 25 and was considered a top prospect at one point.

by **markj11** » Fri Sep 12, 2008 10:27 am

markj11 wrote:I always look for bargains in the SP department and I don't see him as one next year.

By this, I mean he will perform at the level in which he is drafted, you will get what you pay for. Whereas, I like to draft SP's later and get more than I pay for. For example: Ervin Santana 08.

by **Yoda** » Fri Sep 12, 2008 10:43 am

markj11 wrote:
markj11 wrote:I always look for bargains in the SP department and I don't see him as one next year.

By this, I mean he will perform at the level in which he is drafted, you will get what you pay for. Whereas, I like to draft SP's later and get more than I pay for. For example: Ervin Santana 08.

For me, it really depends. A lot of people might think that Ervin won't keep it up either so if he falls to where I am comfortable then I would definitely take him. I have no idea where he will be ranked at this point but it will really depend on the situation.

by **Another Blown Save** » Fri Sep 12, 2008 12:39 pm

I think he'll be a top 10 SP next year.

by **The Artful Dodger** » Fri Sep 12, 2008 2:12 pm

I'm expecting more of the same as well. The hiccups with his command, though existent, have really been few and far between. The thing I'd nitpick on is that his HR rate is still a bit up there, but even that has improved, as well as the fact that he's been stingier in allowing walks to avoid any further damage. He's not quite as sharp on day games still, but I think he's improved in that regard too. More importantly, Ervin's K rate is back up again as he's wasting less pitches. If I could hazard to guess, both Billingsley and Ervin will go around the same round and won't be around by the end of the 8th round, at the very least.

by **abrage22** » Fri Sep 12, 2008 11:53 pm

I think he'll be solid next year. not nearly as dominant as this year, but i think he'll still be a good fantasy pitcher, prabably not quite top 15 though.