ThatGuy27 wrote:Still, 23 RBI seems insanely low. Over a 162 games that would translate to a meager 64 RBI.
By this logic: Matt Holliday would steal 44 bases next year if he didn't play in Coors field. 16 in 59 road games. YAY!
HR Factors are not necessarily conclusive (as Citizen's Bank Ballpark has a factor of 0.987 this year) It is affected by the players playing there (See Progressive Field in Cleveland - 2007: 1.104, 2008: 0.723) but it is a place to start.
Home HR: 22
Coors Field HR Factor: 1.167
Normalized to 1: Almost 19
Away HR: 12
Home HR: 25
Coors Field HR Factor: 1.218
Normalized to 1: 20.5
Away HR: 11
Home HR 162 Game Pace: 18.5
Coors Field HR Factor: 1.387
Normalized to 1: 13
Away HR 162 Game Pace: 14
Holliday also consistently plays at Dodgers Stadium (2008: 0.790 - 26th easiest HR park) and Petco Park (2008: 0.739 - 29th easiest HR Park) Chase Field is 11th and At&T is 14th.
His RBI and Run numbers on the road are affected by the rest of his team's struggles away from Coors, not his own.
Atkins: .277 OBP on the Road
Tulo: .305 OBP on the Road
Tavares: .315 (actually better than his home number)
and as Snakes mentioned not having Todd Helton and his CAREER OBP away from Coors of .394 in front of you will bring down the RBI's.
He's hitting .307 (.400 OBP, .891 OPS) on the road this year with an identical K:BB Ratio.
He hit .301 last year (.374 OBP, .860 OPS)
He had 55 RBI on the road last year and statistically he has been better this year than last on the road.
J35J wrote:I still think he could be a .300/30/100 guy away from Coors.
I agree with this, as you can see above, normalizing his park puts him right around 30. Depending on what team he goes to, I don't expect his RBI to drop much at all. Comparative to this year's rate (105), they would likely go up.