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Where is Alexei drafted next year?

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Re: Where is Alexei drafted next year?

Postby Wheelhouse » Wed Jan 07, 2009 6:18 am

GotowarMissAgnes wrote:Given that Cuban teams are often very competitive in international play, I'd suspect the coaching is pretty good myself. And he's had all of February-October to demonstrate any improvement from coaching without any success so far. He was 7 for 11 before the ASB and 6 for 11 afterwards. Maybe you can take something from his 3 for 4 performance in September, but that's a pretty small sample against a lot of second tier catchers.

Stranger things have happened, but as rotoauthority demonstrates with their analysis of spring training cliches, a lot of this bs about what players are trying to improve never pans out.


and as they demonstrated, a lot of this bs about what players are trying to improve DOES pan out......it's not a guarantee by any means, but it shouldn't be ignored completely

anyone who watched alexei a decent amount last year (especially early in the year when he was playing CF) can see his has the pure speed and is one of the fastest players on the white sox........it's also public knowledge that the sox want to run more then they did last year and have more speed at the top of their lineup

so he needs improved base running skills, no doubt about it....he didn't steal at a great rate last year, and he didn't steal at a great rate in cuba.....but i think with a year experience under his belt watching pitchers, their moves, and catchers he'll have a better idea what he's up against........ and with his focus on that area this spring (vs. last spring when he was trying to just find his feet in NA - on the field and off it) we are going to see some big improvements
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Re: Where is Alexei drafted next year?

Postby Syfo-Dyas » Wed Jan 07, 2009 7:00 am

I might be wrong, but as much I know about Cubans (I only know 5, and one of them was an assistant coach in Cuba a long time ago), they got this macho thing, and stealing bases is not as macho as hitting homers.
Chicks dig the long ball in Cuba too.
So I expect some improvement.
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Re: Where is Alexei drafted next year?

Postby Old_Style » Wed Jan 07, 2009 10:46 am

Syfo-Dyas wrote:I might be wrong, but as much I know about Cubans (I only know 5, and one of them was an assistant coach in Cuba a long time ago), they got this macho thing, and stealing bases is not as macho as hitting homers.
Chicks dig the long ball in Cuba too.
So I expect some improvement.


Eh... I try to avoid using racial stereotypes when projecting fantasy baseball.
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Re: Where is Alexei drafted next year?

Postby Curtis Pride » Wed Jan 07, 2009 11:52 am

Count me among the group who have Ramirez pegged as a bust this year.

Among the reasons:
18 walks in nearly 500 AB. Now, he also only struck out 61 times so he clearly makes contact, but the fact that he's that much of a free swinger doesn't bode well.

13 for 22 in steals. Sub 60% success rate means it's highly unlikely he has any upside in steals.

.380/.398/.611 line in 108 AB with runners in scoring position including 7 homers and 57 RBI. Including a 1.576 OPS with the bases loaded including 4 homers and 26 RBIs in 17 AB. Not bloodly likely he's repeating that performance

Basically, he had a 1.009 OPS with runners in scoring position and a .724 OPS in all other situations. When (not if) that normalizes this year, his run production will fall dramatically.
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Re: Where is Alexei drafted next year?

Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Wed Jan 07, 2009 1:03 pm

Curtis Pride wrote:Count me among the group who have Ramirez pegged as a bust this year.


I want to be clear that I don't think he's likely to be abust. I just don't see his SB increasing. He had less than 500 ABs, so even if his rate stats drop, his counting stats may rise and offset that. He had legit power and guys with SS, 2B, OF eligibility who hit 20 HRs and steal 10 bases while driving in and scoring 80+ runs are rare.
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Re: Where is Alexei drafted next year?

Postby AquaMan2342 » Wed Jan 07, 2009 1:28 pm

Gotowar has it right on the head. Most people are either over-estimating Alexei's abilities or underestimating them. I don't see him as a bust either, but do believe he will provide decent value. Probably not for where he's being drafted, but if he falls into the mid-7th ish round I'd probably take a flier on him.
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Re: Where is Alexei drafted next year?

Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Wed Jan 07, 2009 3:00 pm

Wheelhouse wrote:
GotowarMissAgnes wrote:
and as they demonstrated, a lot of this bs about what players are trying to improve DOES pan out......it's not a guarantee by any means, but it shouldn't be ignored completely

anyone who watched alexei a decent amount last year (especially early in the year when he was playing CF) can see his has the pure speed and is one of the fastest players on the white sox........it's also public knowledge that the sox want to run more then they did last year and have more speed at the top of their lineup

so he needs improved base running skills, no doubt about it....he didn't steal at a great rate last year, and he didn't steal at a great rate in cuba.....but i think with a year experience under his belt watching pitchers, their moves, and catchers he'll have a better idea what he's up against........ and with his focus on that area this spring (vs. last spring when he was trying to just find his feet in NA - on the field and off it) we are going to see some big improvements


You and I must have taken different courses on statistics. By my count barely one-quarter of the "improvements" occurred and led to an improved performance. You'd do better just flipping a coin to choose which players would improve. In fact, in more cases the player actually had a dramatic drop in their performance than an improvement. In other words, if you learned this information, you'd make more money betting on more players to actually perform worse rather than better.

Despite years of studying Cuban pitchers, he never seems to get better there.
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Re: Where is Alexei drafted next year?

Postby Neato Torpedo » Wed Jan 07, 2009 5:27 pm

Syfo-Dyas wrote:I might be wrong, but as much I know about Cubans (I only know 5, and one of them was an assistant coach in Cuba a long time ago), they got this macho thing, and stealing bases is not as macho as hitting homers.
Chicks dig the long ball in Cuba too.
So I expect some improvement.

Stealing bases isn't macho in America either. I don't see chicks lining up at Willy Taveras' door. :-D
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Re: Where is Alexei drafted next year?

Postby GotowarMissAgnes » Wed Jan 07, 2009 5:32 pm

Neato Torpedo wrote:
Syfo-Dyas wrote:I might be wrong, but as much I know about Cubans (I only know 5, and one of them was an assistant coach in Cuba a long time ago), they got this macho thing, and stealing bases is not as macho as hitting homers.
Chicks dig the long ball in Cuba too.
So I expect some improvement.

Stealing bases isn't macho in America either. I don't see chicks lining up at Willy Taveras' door. :-D


Rickey says Rickey never had trouble finding action.
;-7
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Re: Where is Alexei drafted next year?

Postby Curtis Pride » Wed Jan 07, 2009 6:08 pm

You may want to tell Scott Podsednik that speedsters don't get women.
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