OneLoveBoomer wrote:I'll be paying close attention to mock drafts as to where he goes.
That said, people making projections need to keep in mind that this is his first year in the U.S. Majors....He started the season looking like a fool at the plate (not including S.T., he did great there), and now he's hitting like a maniac.
Comparisons to Soriano for a ceiling -- yes, including power -- are not far fetched.
Look at their first full seasons. It's not the power Alexei would have to catch up on, it's the speed. He's actually quite significantly ahead of the power pace Soriano set, but way behind on speed. But ahead in contact (way ahead). Alexei's on his way to K about 40% less than Soriano did, with a BA about .045 higher. Soriano's contact has always been lacking, and if Alexei were to become Soriano with much better contact and less speed, he'll be a true 5-cat monster.
I would venture to say that Ramirez is one of the fastest guys in the league. He just needs to learn how to run on the paths.
His 2004-2005 average was enough to place him in the top ten of league hitters, while his 20 home runs in 2006-2007 led the league.
The grain of salt to be taken here is that Baseball Prospectus’ Clay Davenport estimates the Cuban leagues are at about an ‘A’ minor league level. Averages tend to be high there, and power low (the league-leading averages in the three above seasons were .385, .447, and .371, and home runs 27, 27, and 20). I don’t have the knowledge or ability to translate these numbers into anything like a MLB equivalent, so it might be best to take the long, hedged view on these numbers: they seem to support Ramirez’s current bid to be a high-average hitter with some power.
^Thanks for the sig Soty!^ "When times are good, be happy; but when times are bad, consider: God has made the one as well as the other..." Ecclesiastes 7:14 ΠKΦ
I'm not really looking that hard right now at this, but his runs and RBI are very low. Is there a good reason for that, or are you guys overlooking it? He seems to be balanced with speed and power and a nice average... he's been hot but still, I wouldn't draft him in the top 50 with those runs and RBI and not huge power or speed numbers. He's not young, this was his 27 year if I'm not mistaken... I don't think the power is going to come. I have a feeling this is what you're going to get which isn't too shabby for a mid-round pick. I just wouldn't go much higher.
jfg wrote:I'm not really looking that hard right now at this, but his runs and RBI are very low. Is there a good reason for that, or are you guys overlooking it? He seems to be balanced with speed and power and a nice average... he's been hot but still, I wouldn't draft him in the top 50 with those runs and RBI and not huge power or speed numbers. He's not young, this was his 27 year if I'm not mistaken... I don't think the power is going to come. I have a feeling this is what you're going to get which isn't too shabby for a mid-round pick. I just wouldn't go much higher.
I don't know what numbers you are looking at.
381 50 15 60 10 51 10 0.3097
That puts him at 25 HRs ish over a full season, especially when you consider he didnt start getting comfortable (or get regular atbats) until mid-may. He hit something like .150 over his first 80 ABs as he was adjusting.
He is hitting in the 7th/8th spot most days, not exactly prime run-producing spots, and still projects to 75/90 in runs/RBIs.
I think he is Brandon Phillips level production, with maybe a little less speed and a little better BA. Look where Phillips went last year (3rd) and thats why I project him at that value.
Will I take him there, probably not, but only because I think he is under the radar enough to drop another round or two.
It seems like people are getting awfully excited about a guy who has yet to sustain success past 400 plate appearences and has an abysmal BB/K ratio. Granted, there a few guys who can excel despite such a bad eye rate, but they are few and far between. Most often, a BB/K rate like that is not a recipe for long term success.
I would be happy to call Ramirez a top 10 2B next year who might do .280/20/20, but let's not get out of control and question whether he is better than Roberts (as one poster did). Against this, there is the possibility of a complete flameout (say .240 BA and losing his job by the all-star break) or something disappointing in between. I would be happy to have Ramirez at the right price, but I am not going to reach for a guy who is high risk and probably won't be much better than top 10 at his position anyway.
stumpak wrote:It seems like people are getting awfully excited about a guy who has yet to sustain success past 400 plate appearences and has an abysmal BB/K ratio. Granted, there a few guys who can excel despite such a bad eye rate, but they are few and far between. Most often, a BB/K rate like that is not a recipe for long term success.
I would be happy to call Ramirez a top 10 2B next year who might do .280/20/20, but let's not get out of control and question whether he is better than Roberts (as one poster did). Against this, there is the possibility of a complete flameout (say .240 BA and losing his job by the all-star break) or something disappointing in between. I would be happy to have Ramirez at the right price, but I am not going to reach for a guy who is high risk and probably won't be much better than top 10 at his position anyway.
It's not like he's on a 180 K pace, he doesn't strike out a lot either. Sure he K's 5 times to a walk but he doesn't strike out much either, if you just look at the counting stats. Sure, there's room for improvement, but he's been a pro for several years, he just needs to adjust to the US style of play.
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by Old_Style » Thu Aug 28, 2008 11:57 am 
