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ERA Drop?

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ERA Drop?

Postby rjforlife » Sat Aug 23, 2008 3:07 am

So there was one guy, Jake Peavy with a 2.54, that was under 3.00 for the season last year. Now I realize that there is still over a month to go, but there are currently 11 pitchers with a sub-3 era this season. That is an astounding difference. Does anyone have an insight as to why this is the case, or is steroids the only rationale?


For the record.... Cliff Lee 2.43. Duchscherer 2.54. Volquez 2.73. Dempster 2.92. Those 4 are the total shockers in my book. Some may be surprised by Lincecums 2.48. Then you have Halladay at 2.68, Webb at 2.74. Santana at 2.64, Peavy 2.84, Sabathia cooking at 2.99 and Harden 2.04.
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Re: ERA Drop?

Postby Diamond Miners » Sat Aug 23, 2008 4:57 am

Cliff Lee, I said the same until I realized he is just on this year. His K/BB is great, he's placing the ball, getting outs. Looks great.
I just made a recent comment about the steriod era and the pitchers this season to my league. I can not remember how many 10+Ks a game I've seen this week. It's kinda crazy!
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Re: ERA Drop?

Postby mweir145 » Sat Aug 23, 2008 6:30 am

Offense is seemingly down in baseball this season , but I'm not sure that it has anything to do with steroids.
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Re: ERA Drop?

Postby JTWood » Sat Aug 23, 2008 9:22 am

A while back, ESPN had the "Juice Box" that they ran after steroid testing was implemented. It tracked power numbers before and after the steroid testing went into effect. Even though they don't do it now, I kept it going for my league as a way to confirm that our scoring system was working as it should be (among other methods).

Here's where it's at through today:

Through Aug 22nd 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Homers/Game 1.043 1.071 1.123 1.032 1.120 0.983 1.004
Runs/Game 4.618 4.728 4.814 4.592 4.887 4.706 4.615
Doubles/Game 1.793 1.816 1.837 1.823 1.887 1.882 1.852
Agg. SLG .417 .422 .428 .419 .433 .415 .415

Here's how these numbers have changed since I recorded them on June 8th:

HR/g - 7%
R/g - 3%
2B/g - 1%
Agg. SLG - 2%

I should note that I only try to look at the first 20 weeks of the season, because that's the length of our league's regular season. So the historical number above roughly equal the first 20 weeks of each MLB season from that year. This year, I forgot to grab the numbers until I saw this thread, so thanks for the reminder!
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Re: ERA Drop?

Postby HOOTIE » Sun Aug 24, 2008 2:05 am

The game has swings in history. A influx of good young pitchers in the last 5 years is one reason. I believe greenies no longer there for everyday players is also a factor.
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Re: ERA Drop?

Postby TheA'sFatLeadoffMan » Sun Aug 24, 2008 2:10 pm

Few things like this have just one answer I would suppose it is a combination of the flux of an MLB season(last year you had a ton of historical moments and multiple no hitters) and the decline of offense since the steroid testing. Some years there are no 20 game winners, others there are 5+, the game has its fluxuations.
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Re: ERA Drop?

Postby TheA'sFatLeadoffMan » Sun Aug 24, 2008 2:13 pm

Also Dice-K has a sub 3 ERA
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Re: ERA Drop?

Postby AKhomebrewer » Thu Aug 28, 2008 2:07 am

rjforlife wrote:For the record.... Cliff Lee 2.43. Duchscherer 2.54. Volquez 2.73. Dempster 2.92. Those 4 are the total shockers in my book. Some may be surprised by Lincecums 2.48. Then you have Halladay at 2.68, Webb at 2.74. Santana at 2.64, Peavy 2.84, Sabathia cooking at 2.99 and Harden 2.04.


Considering the bottom portion of that list, I think the biggest surprise is that Peavy was the only (qualifying) sub-3.00 in MLB last year.

Well, that and Harden's appearance total in '08.
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