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PECOTA's Top 50

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Re: PECOTA's Top 50

Postby RedSoxNation04 » Fri Aug 22, 2008 1:27 pm

J35J wrote:Do keep in mind this is for REAL baseball not fantasy. With that said, I'm not too impressed with the list so far. #1 for me would be a staff ace as far as real baseball goes. I think all the top pitchers should be toward the top of this list when it comes out.

Would be interesting to see a mock "real life" draft with all 30 teams done. Could be quite a lot of great debate over picks, ballpark effects, salary implications, etc.
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Re: PECOTA's Top 50

Postby clevername » Fri Aug 22, 2008 3:17 pm

sorry, left out "young" between "best" and "player".

my point stands.
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Re: PECOTA's Top 50

Postby RedSoxNation04 » Fri Aug 22, 2008 3:37 pm

Yoda wrote:It is still severely flawed. No Kershaw? The youngest pitcher in MLB by far today and more than holding his own is not even an honorable mention? Please.

Agreed. Especially after watching him pitch last week. Sick movement on his ball. He's going to be very good...
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Re: PECOTA's Top 50

Postby Neato Torpedo » Fri Aug 22, 2008 3:43 pm

Zim and Wieters above Fielder and Tex? :-? Grandy over Webb, Hamels, Kaz, and Hamilton? :-? :-?
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Re: PECOTA's Top 50

Postby markj11 » Fri Aug 22, 2008 3:53 pm

nevermind, i found the top 25.
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Re: PECOTA's Top 50

Postby Yoda » Fri Aug 22, 2008 4:34 pm

Below is a comparison of other curve ball hurlers whom I feel have some of the best stuff in the MLB.
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He has more downward movement than Felix or Lincecum. The average differential between his fastball and curve is a whopping 20 MPH. His average fastball is nearly 95 as a 20 yo. You don't see too many raw talents like this very often. I'd probably take this kid top 10 if I were starting a team today.
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Re: PECOTA's Top 50

Postby thedude » Fri Aug 22, 2008 5:07 pm

Yoda wrote:Below is a comparison of other curve ball hurlers whom I feel have some of the best stuff in the MLB.
Image
He has more downward movement than Felix or Lincecum. The average differential between his fastball and curve is a whopping 20 MPH. His average fastball is nearly 95 as a 20 yo. You don't see too many raw talents like this very often. I'd probably take this kid top 10 if I were starting a team today.


This is a list made using PECOTA and VORP, neither of which look at movement of pitches. It looks at Kershaw's age and numbers and compares it to similar players at that age. The history of young pitchers leads PECOTA to TINSTAPP.

If i was making a list of players, i would do it differently, but that BP chose to use PECOTA.
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Re: PECOTA's Top 50

Postby Yoda » Fri Aug 22, 2008 5:11 pm

thedude wrote:This is a list made using PECOTA and VORP, neither of which look at movement of pitches. It looks at Kershaw's age and numbers and compares it to similar players at that age. The history of young pitchers leads PECOTA to TINSTAPP.

If i was making a list of players, i would do it differently, but that BP chose to use PECOTA.


Their system is flawed especially when it comes to young players and taht is the point. It always has been flawed. To disregard a pitcher who barely has a year of pro experience out of high school already competing at the highest level not be considered?

I posted the pitch movements to compare his raw talent.

Also explain how David Price got in there. It makes little sense.
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Re: PECOTA's Top 50

Postby jfg » Fri Aug 22, 2008 5:14 pm

PECOTA is their bread and butter so that's no surprise. I've never trusted PECOTA too much for long term projections. They're great at picking the right prospects for the year but it seems they are very conservative when it comes to projecting their future. If you read the book you rarely see prospects making any significant jumps in their future year projections. PECOTA usually picks it's breakout players and then levels them out in upcoming years and doesn't predict any breakouts from guys who aren't ready. At least that's been my thoughts. But, when you listen to the BP guys talk or read their chat they are bullish on a guys future when their PECOTA projection isn't all that glowing. So, you really have to know how to look at PECOTA and get used to it's nuances.
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Re: PECOTA's Top 50

Postby Yoda » Fri Aug 22, 2008 5:25 pm

jfg wrote:PECOTA is their bread and butter so that's no surprise. I've never trusted PECOTA too much for long term projections. They're great at picking the right prospects for the year but it seems they are very conservative when it comes to projecting their future. If you read the book you rarely see prospects making any significant jumps in their future year projections. PECOTA usually picks it's breakout players and then levels them out in upcoming years and doesn't predict any breakouts from guys who aren't ready. At least that's been my thoughts. But, when you listen to the BP guys talk or read their chat they are bullish on a guys future when their PECOTA projection isn't all that glowing. So, you really have to know how to look at PECOTA and get used to it's nuances.


I don't actually rely on them at all for rookie and prospect projections. It's a crapshoot system at best.
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