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PECOTA's Top 50

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PECOTA's Top 50

Postby bigh0rt » Fri Aug 22, 2008 10:27 am

Welcome to the third annual Baseball Prospectus Ultimate Fantasy Draft. We will attempt to answer this question: If you were starting a baseball team from scratch, which players would you want to build your team around? That is, which players would you take -- and in what order would you take them -- if your goal was to win as many championships as possible over the medium-to-long-term?


Some real wacky ones in there, if you ask me... like Dustin Pedroia at 40. ahead of, well, all 10 players that are behind him...

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Re: PECOTA's Top 50

Postby Field » Fri Aug 22, 2008 10:43 am

bigh0rt wrote:
Welcome to the third annual Baseball Prospectus Ultimate Fantasy Draft. We will attempt to answer this question: If you were starting a baseball team from scratch, which players would you want to build your team around? That is, which players would you take -- and in what order would you take them -- if your goal was to win as many championships as possible over the medium-to-long-term?


Some real wacky ones in there, if you ask me... like Dustin Pedroia at 40. ahead of, well, all 10 players that are behind him...

26 - 50


Seems like a pretty terrible list so far :-? . Almost too many things to comment on...
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Re: PECOTA's Top 50

Postby markj11 » Fri Aug 22, 2008 10:45 am

Holliday wasn't even ranked last year?
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Re: PECOTA's Top 50

Postby bigwords » Fri Aug 22, 2008 11:04 am

I actually think it's a very, very good list. And yes, Pedroia is that good.
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Re: PECOTA's Top 50

Postby Pogotheostrich » Fri Aug 22, 2008 11:11 am

bigwords wrote:I actually think it's a very, very good list. And yes, Pedroia is that good.

He's a solid player but far from someone I would build a team around.
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Re: PECOTA's Top 50

Postby Yoda » Fri Aug 22, 2008 11:22 am

Meh it's not that great. Pedroia is good but top 50? Kendrick? Wieters? How is Zimmerman still up there? Martin at 25?
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Re: PECOTA's Top 50

Postby stumpak » Fri Aug 22, 2008 11:24 am

Interesting. I think this list makes one of the most typical mistakes in evaluating keepers over the long term, which is not allowing for the possibility that they might be playing for a different manager or different team. I thinking specifically of things like SBs, which are highly manager dependent, and R and RBI, which are highly team dependent. Take a guy like Victorino as an example: He's a really good fantasy player, but if gets moves a team that runs less, has a worse home park for hitters and has a poorer line-up overall, what is his value? His current value has much to do with being in Philly and the team and manager around him. To me guys like this (of which Pedroia could be said to be one) need to be discounted when thinking about keepers in the 3-5 time horizon.

This is the reason I always tend to favor guys with proven power and BA when considering keepers in the long-term context. They will produce wherever they go and suffer less imapct from things like ballpark, manager and surrounding line-up.
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Re: PECOTA's Top 50

Postby Pogotheostrich » Fri Aug 22, 2008 11:27 am

Yoda wrote:Meh it's not that great. Pedroia is good but top 50? Kendrick? Wieters? How is Zimmerman still up there? Martin at 25?

I can see the arguement for Martin but I would argue that building a team around a catcher is a bad idea.
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Re: PECOTA's Top 50

Postby Yoda » Fri Aug 22, 2008 11:44 am

Pogotheostrich wrote:
Yoda wrote:Meh it's not that great. Pedroia is good but top 50? Kendrick? Wieters? How is Zimmerman still up there? Martin at 25?

I can see the arguement for Martin but I would argue that building a team around a catcher is a bad idea.


Sorry I don't see the argument for Martin. He's not anywhere near worth a top 25 pick IMO unless you are in a 20+ team league.
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Re: PECOTA's Top 50

Postby Pogotheostrich » Fri Aug 22, 2008 12:02 pm

Yoda wrote:
Pogotheostrich wrote:
Yoda wrote:Meh it's not that great. Pedroia is good but top 50? Kendrick? Wieters? How is Zimmerman still up there? Martin at 25?

I can see the arguement for Martin but I would argue that building a team around a catcher is a bad idea.


Sorry I don't see the argument for Martin. He's not anywhere near worth a top 25 pick IMO unless you are in a 20+ team league.

Fantasy-wise no but 25 year old catchers with .373 career OBP don't grow on trees. Plus he is solid defensively and hits for a little pop.
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