A Jacoby Ellsbury/Jose Reyes comparison

[Yoda]

The worst part of the comparison is that Reyes has 3-4 additional years of experience. In Reyes' first full year, his stats were:
696 ABs, 99 runs, 7 HRs, 58 RBIs, .269 BA, 60 SBs

Assuming Ellsbury gets every day playing time from here on out, his rookie year stats project to:
536 ABs, 93 runs, 9 HRs, 46 RBIs, .270 BA, and 51 SBs.

Those numbers look pretty darn similar in 160 fewer ABs for Ellsbury. Ellsbury has had his growing pains in his rookie year as pitchers have adjusted to him, plus he's battled an injury this year which I think have kept his numbers down. In 2-3 years, I see no reason why Ellsbury can't put up Reyes type numbers. Reyes average numbers over the last three years (with on-pace-for 2008 numbers):
676 ABs, 119 runs, 16 HRs, 69 RBIs, .294 BA, and 65 SBs

Those numbers are quite achievable for Ellsbury in 2-3 years (maybe even next year) as he develops a bit more power and gains some more experience. Obviously, you can't say you'd draft them in the same spot because of position eligibility, but I don't think anyone is arguing that point (even the OP).

Reyes hit .273 in his first full season. Still a terrible comparison since Reyes was 3 years younger than Ellsbury when he put those numbers up. The only thing that is close is speed around the bases and Reyes still beats him in that.

[Bloody Sox]

The worst part of the comparison is that Reyes has 3-4 additional years of experience. In Reyes' first full year, his stats were:
696 ABs, 99 runs, 7 HRs, 58 RBIs, .269 BA, 60 SBs

Assuming Ellsbury gets every day playing time from here on out, his rookie year stats project to:
536 ABs, 93 runs, 9 HRs, 46 RBIs, .270 BA, and 51 SBs.

Those numbers look pretty darn similar in 160 fewer ABs for Ellsbury. Ellsbury has had his growing pains in his rookie year as pitchers have adjusted to him, plus he's battled an injury this year which I think have kept his numbers down. In 2-3 years, I see no reason why Ellsbury can't put up Reyes type numbers. Reyes average numbers over the last three years (with on-pace-for 2008 numbers):
676 ABs, 119 runs, 16 HRs, 69 RBIs, .294 BA, and 65 SBs

Those numbers are quite achievable for Ellsbury in 2-3 years (maybe even next year) as he develops a bit more power and gains some more experience. Obviously, you can't say you'd draft them in the same spot because of position eligibility, but I don't think anyone is arguing that point (even the OP).

Reyes hit .273 in his first full season. Still a terrible comparison since Reyes was 3 years younger than Ellsbury when he put those numbers up. The only thing that is close is speed around the bases and Reyes still beats him in that.

My bad on the .269. Reyes did hit .273 in his first full year.

That said, who cares that Reyes was 3 years younger as a rookie (if he even was)? Do 21 year old rookies improve more in their first few years than 24 year old rookies? Ellsbury is putting up very comparable stats in his rookie year to Reyes (better actually when you prorate the ABs) and is just as likely to improve as much in his first few years as Reyes did. How is speed the only thing that's even close? Reyes is a career .290 hitter who scores 115 runs as a leadoff hitter - very achievable for Ellsbury as soon as next year (he was hitting .290 and was on pace for 120 runs in only 500 ABs at the end of May before he got hurt/started slumping). You act like Reyes is a 40 HR guy with all this power. He had one decent power year and even that was only 19 HRs.

[bigh0rt]

The worst part of the comparison is that Reyes has 3-4 additional years of experience. In Reyes' first full year, his stats were:
696 ABs, 99 runs, 7 HRs, 58 RBIs, .269 BA, 60 SBs

Assuming Ellsbury gets every day playing time from here on out, his rookie year stats project to:
536 ABs, 93 runs, 9 HRs, 46 RBIs, .270 BA, and 51 SBs.

Those numbers look pretty darn similar in 160 fewer ABs for Ellsbury. Ellsbury has had his growing pains in his rookie year as pitchers have adjusted to him, plus he's battled an injury this year which I think have kept his numbers down. In 2-3 years, I see no reason why Ellsbury can't put up Reyes type numbers. Reyes average numbers over the last three years (with on-pace-for 2008 numbers):
676 ABs, 119 runs, 16 HRs, 69 RBIs, .294 BA, and 65 SBs

Those numbers are quite achievable for Ellsbury in 2-3 years (maybe even next year) as he develops a bit more power and gains some more experience. Obviously, you can't say you'd draft them in the same spot because of position eligibility, but I don't think anyone is arguing that point (even the OP).

Reyes hit .273 in his first full season. Still a terrible comparison since Reyes was 3 years younger than Ellsbury when he put those numbers up. The only thing that is close is speed around the bases and Reyes still beats him in that.

My bad on the .269. Reyes did hit .273 in his first full year.

That said, who cares that Reyes was 3 years younger as a rookie (if he even was)? Do 21 year old rookies improve more in their first few years than 24 year old rookies? Ellsbury is putting up very comparable stats in his rookie year to Reyes (better actually when you prorate the ABs) and is just as likely to improve as much in his first few years as Reyes did. How is speed the only thing that's even close? Reyes is a career .290 hitter who scores 115 runs as a leadoff hitter - very achievable for Ellsbury as soon as next year (he was hitting .290 and was on pace for 120 runs in only 500 ABs at the end of May before he got hurt/started slumping). You act like Reyes is a 40 HR guy with all this power. He had one decent power year and even that was only 19 HRs.

It's not that 21 year olds improve more than 24 year olds, it's that 21 year olds are not expected to perform at the same level as 24 year olds, so the fact that Reyes was doing what he was doing at that age, whereas Ellsbury is doing it at 24 is less impressive. I believe that's what people are getting at, at least.

You cannot really 'pace' 2 months worth of AB, as you said, with Ellsbury being on pace for 120 Runs at the end of May. Reyes is currently in his third full season of batting at a superior AVG than what Ellsbury is posting, hitting for more power, driving more runners in, and scoring more runs, while stealing the same number of bases. Now, you can project whatever you'd like for Ellsbury or Reyes, but as has been mentioned, rating draft value of two players when one is a consensus first round pick is futile, and not really worth the time. There's a reason Jose Reyes is drafted in the first round. He's bat .290+ in each of the last 3 years, .300 for two of them. He's scored 120 runs the past two seasons. He's shown 20 HR pop, and even shown some this season again with 12 thus far. He's driven in as many as 80 batters. He's stolen 60 bases for what should be his 4th straight season. And he's done it all at the thinnest position in all of fantasy baseball. When you weigh that against a guy who had 2 tremendous months and fell off the table and is a 24 year old rookie with a ton of promise, certainly you have to see why people are saying the comparison is a stretch, at best. Aside from the counting stats and 100 AB differential, Reyes is posting a .851 OPS compared to Ellsbury's which has only risen above .700 in the last 4 games. I think Jacoby is a good player, both in reality and fantasy, but I think the only category the two have a chance at competing in is SB, with Reyes getting the edge in AVG, R, RBI, and HR for the foreseeable future. The gaps may narrow, but again, Reyes is doing all of this with SS eligibility.

[Amazinz]

That said, who cares that Reyes was 3 years younger as a rookie (if he even was)? Do 21 year old rookies improve more in their first few years than 24 year old rookies?

Yes, statistically they do. Obviously every player is different and Ellsbury could be an exception. However, the same first year stats at 21 indicate more success than first year stats at 24.

[Bloody Sox]

That said, who cares that Reyes was 3 years younger as a rookie (if he even was)? Do 21 year old rookies improve more in their first few years than 24 year old rookies?

Yes, statistically they do. Obviously every player is different and Ellsbury could be an exception. However, the same first year stats at 21 indicate more success than first year stats at 24.

OK - good to know. As a Sox fan I obviously hope Ellsbury is the exception

[Yoda]

Most regular posters know how critical I am of Reyes and even I think Ellsbury/Reyes comparison is far fetched at best.

[zhutou]

reyes > ellbsury though ellsbury > crawford for next year in my books.

[J35J]

Just as a pure projection going forward and given relatively the same number of ABs, I think Ellsbury and Reyes will be very close next year statistically.

I think Ellsbury can hit .290+
I think he can hit 10+ homers
I think he can score 120 runs
I think he can steal 50+ bags
...given 600ABs

Of course with Reyes you expect those numbers and with Ellsbury its a prediction/projection but I can still see it.

[markj11]

Just as a pure projection going forward and given relatively the same number of ABs, I think Ellsbury and Reyes will be very close next year statistically.

I think Ellsbury can hit .290+
I think he can hit 10+ homers
I think he can score 120 runs
I think he can steal 50+ bags
...given 600ABs

Of course with Reyes you expect those numbers and with Ellsbury its a prediction/projection but I can still see it.

I agree and say that Ellsbury will be a lite Reyes, say about 15 lbs.

[Amazinz]

Code: Select all

            AVG   AB    H     R   RBI   SB  HR
ELLSBURY   .272   503   137   88   43   49   9
BASELINE   .280   407   114   61   55   10  15
----------------------------------------------
DIFF       .240    96    23   27  -12   39  -6
   
               
REYES      .304   503   153   83   50   40   9
BASELINE   .269   413   111   56   42    9  12
----------------------------------------------
DIFF       .467    90    42   27    8   31   3


Just out of interest this is Ellsbury compared to Reyes using positional baselines. Ellsbury is adjusted to 503 AB so it's not his true value but a what if scenario.

Edit: Oops. Edited to include HR.