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A Jacoby Ellsbury/Jose Reyes comparison

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Re: A Jacoby Ellsbury/Jose Reyes comparison

Postby RedSoxNation04 » Tue Aug 12, 2008 3:48 pm

Gotta love the hype machine. I totally forgot about the Victorino comp which is probably more of what he is capable of than Ichiro...
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Re: A Jacoby Ellsbury/Jose Reyes comparison

Postby DRAFTAHOLIC » Tue Aug 12, 2008 5:00 pm

Hey guys I appreciate the comments. However, the comparison was only to show how close this years stats are to Reyes and that so far Ellsbury is better in SB's only. I agree with SS being a tough possition to acquire Reyes gets the nod, however Jacoby will get more love come draft day.

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Re: A Jacoby Ellsbury/Jose Reyes comparison

Postby Yoda » Tue Aug 12, 2008 5:35 pm

DRAFTAHOLIC wrote:Hey guys I appreciate the comments. However, the comparison was only to show how close this years stats are to Reyes and that so far Ellsbury is better in SB's only. I agree with SS being a tough possition to acquire Reyes gets the nod, however Jacoby will get more love come draft day.

D


No, Reyes is superior in every way not just SBs as you say. Keep dreaming. I do hope that someone in my leagues will view him as highly as you though. :-D
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Re: A Jacoby Ellsbury/Jose Reyes comparison

Postby bigh0rt » Tue Aug 12, 2008 11:07 pm

Yoda wrote:
DRAFTAHOLIC wrote:Hey guys I appreciate the comments. However, the comparison was only to show how close this years stats are to Reyes and that so far Ellsbury is better in SB's only. I agree with SS being a tough possition to acquire Reyes gets the nod, however Jacoby will get more love come draft day.

D


No, Reyes is superior in every way not just SBs as you say. Keep dreaming. I do hope that someone in my leagues will view him as highly as you though. :-D

Maybe I read it incorrectly, but I think he said Ellsbury is better in SB (at least on the season). I disagree, but I do think that's what he said.
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Re: A Jacoby Ellsbury/Jose Reyes comparison

Postby The Cow » Wed Aug 13, 2008 12:37 am

Well first off Reyes is better lets get that out of the way first. However, I like this comparison because Reyes was a top 5 pick whereas Ellsbury was a mid to late round pick. To get close to top 5 production from a mid to late round pick is very good. Reyes is not your typical top 5 guy because Reyes was drafted for his SBs, but numbers are numbers. Ellsbury's numbers are close to Reyes' numbers, but Ellsbury was MUCH MUCH cheaper on draft day. I think Ellsbury is being slowed by the wrist leading many to underestimate Ellsbury. I still like Reyes better, but this is a very good comparison. I guess I would consider Ellsbury, Reyes-light.

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Re: A Jacoby Ellsbury/Jose Reyes comparison

Postby DRAFTAHOLIC » Wed Aug 13, 2008 11:32 am

Well first off Reyes is better lets get that out of the way first. However, I like this comparison because Reyes was a top 5 pick whereas Ellsbury was a mid to late round pick. To get close to top 5 production from a mid to late round pick is very good. Reyes is not your typical top 5 guy because Reyes was drafted for his SBs, but numbers are numbers. Ellsbury's numbers are close to Reyes' numbers, but Ellsbury was MUCH MUCH cheaper on draft day. I think Ellsbury is being slowed by the wrist leading many to underestimate Ellsbury. I still like Reyes better, but this is a very good comparison. I guess I would consider Ellsbury, Reyes-light.

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Thank you Cow, you are the only one who understood the argument of draft value. No I would not take Ellsbury over Reyes in the first round but, I would take someone with more power knowing that I could get near Reyes quality SB's down the line with Jacoby. I sort of laughed at the guy who said Reyes was better in SB's, of course he waited til Reyes finally pulled ahead of Ellsbury on the SB list so say it. He failed to realize that when I posted this thought, Jacoby did in fact have more SB's than Reyes.

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Re: A Jacoby Ellsbury/Jose Reyes comparison

Postby bigh0rt » Wed Aug 13, 2008 11:36 am

DRAFTAHOLIC wrote:
Well first off Reyes is better lets get that out of the way first. However, I like this comparison because Reyes was a top 5 pick whereas Ellsbury was a mid to late round pick. To get close to top 5 production from a mid to late round pick is very good. Reyes is not your typical top 5 guy because Reyes was drafted for his SBs, but numbers are numbers. Ellsbury's numbers are close to Reyes' numbers, but Ellsbury was MUCH MUCH cheaper on draft day. I think Ellsbury is being slowed by the wrist leading many to underestimate Ellsbury. I still like Reyes better, but this is a very good comparison. I guess I would consider Ellsbury, Reyes-light.

The Cow


Thank you Cow, you are the only one who understood the argument of draft value. No I would not take Ellsbury over Reyes in the first round but, I would take someone with more power knowing that I could get near Reyes quality SB's down the line with Jacoby. I sort of laughed at the guy who said Reyes was better in SB's, of course he waited til Reyes finally pulled ahead of Ellsbury on the SB list so say it. He failed to realize that when I posted this thought, Jacoby did in fact have more SB's than Reyes.

Thanks
D

I fully understood the argument of draft value. However, Reyes isn't taken in the Top 10 Picks for his speed alone. Sure, it is the primary reason, however, a good chunk of that reasoning is because he is a Shortstop, and because he scores 120 Runs a year, and has shown 20 HR/80 RBI capability. The argument can always be made about getting so and so cheaper, later on. I do not feel that the Ellsbury to Reyes comparison is a good one, however. The gap between them in near everything aside from Stolen Bases, coupled with Ellsbury being eligible at an extremely deep position just weakens it too much, in my opinion.
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Re: A Jacoby Ellsbury/Jose Reyes comparison

Postby Amazinz » Wed Aug 13, 2008 11:44 am

This argument or point concerning draft value comes up every season. 1st round picks are never the best earners. The best earners always come from the latter part of the draft. The comparison in retrospect doesn't do us a lot of good. Ellsbury's draft position/value next year which shift to compensate for his production.
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Re: A Jacoby Ellsbury/Jose Reyes comparison

Postby J35J » Wed Aug 13, 2008 12:05 pm

Amazinz wrote:This argument or point concerning draft value comes up every season. 1st round picks are never the best earners. The best earners always come from the latter part of the draft. The comparison in retrospect doesn't do us a lot of good. Ellsbury's draft position/value next year which shift to compensate for his production.


Yup, arguing draft value, especially when 1 guy is a first rounder, is shaky at best.
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Re: A Jacoby Ellsbury/Jose Reyes comparison

Postby Bloody Sox » Wed Aug 13, 2008 1:06 pm

The worst part of the comparison is that Reyes has 3-4 additional years of experience. In Reyes' first full year, his stats were:
696 ABs, 99 runs, 7 HRs, 58 RBIs, .269 BA, 60 SBs

Assuming Ellsbury gets every day playing time from here on out, his rookie year stats project to:
536 ABs, 93 runs, 9 HRs, 46 RBIs, .270 BA, and 51 SBs.

Those numbers look pretty darn similar in 160 fewer ABs for Ellsbury. Ellsbury has had his growing pains in his rookie year as pitchers have adjusted to him, plus he's battled an injury this year which I think have kept his numbers down. In 2-3 years, I see no reason why Ellsbury can't put up Reyes type numbers. Reyes average numbers over the last three years (with on-pace-for 2008 numbers):
676 ABs, 119 runs, 16 HRs, 69 RBIs, .294 BA, and 65 SBs

Those numbers are quite achievable for Ellsbury in 2-3 years (maybe even next year) as he develops a bit more power and gains some more experience. Obviously, you can't say you'd draft them in the same spot because of position eligibility, but I don't think anyone is arguing that point (even the OP).
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