Almost a carbon copy of an earlier post I made in DTKW.....didn't spark up the discussion I was hoping for.
As much as Vlad is sucking this year, he's still Vlad and he's only 32. There's no reason to assume that his career is crashing downhill. He hit .375 in June, .291 in July, and .391 so far in August. His OPS is about .920 since June 1. He has a .333 career BA in August and September with about 1.000 OPS. Come ON, what makes everyone so damn down on Vlad? It's mystifying why so many people are ready to jump ship on a perennial 2nd-3rd rounder. Once he starts getting more RBI opportunities, he'll start driving more in, and you can count on a high OPS and BA.
Rocinante2: you know Rocinante2: its easy to dismiss the orioles as a bad team ofanrex: go on Rocinante2: i'm done Rocinante2: lmao
Most people tend to be of the belief that when he falls off it will be rather quick and not a gradual decline due to his approach at the plate. Given that he relies almost soley on his bat speed to make things happen, I mostly agree with this assessment. Injuries have also taken a toll on big Vlad making him not quite the same hitter he use to be.
well he looks much better right now because he's red hot, but early in the season he wasn't playing that well. and last season he was also cold for long stretches where he topped his longest career homerun droughts. some would say these are signs of decline, i'm not totally sure yet.
a lot of people predict if and when he declines, it will be quick. because he relies so much on his raw physical abilities and only knows how to play one way, when his body breaks down they say it's over. i don't know if his body is okay, but a lot of people mistake his gimpy walking/running style as being banged up.
i'm more worried about player like ichiro's decline than vlad's though, since ichiro relies so much on speed (infield hits, etc.). ichiro's BA is barely above 300 right now.
I'd say the concerns on Vlad are legitimate but they're overblown given that some think he's headed for a drastic decline. The thing about Vlad is he's an aggressive hitter notorious for hitting almost anything near him. Sometimes, he gets overzealous and lunges at bad pitches. Vlad makes contact on those bad pitches, but they're usually pulled for groundballs. This was the case during his torrid slump. Vlad would be eager to swing at any of the first 3 pitches and somehow put the ball on the ground. I think he's cut down on that a bit of late and it also helps things when Teixeira is hitting in front of Vlad, now that he has some legitimate protection. Prior to the Tex trade, Vlad started to heat up and he usually produces in binges. I'd still safely pencil Vlad for a 30 HR, .300 season from here on out.
He hasn't been stealing bases for years, though, and he's still put up really solid numbers. And due to his tremendous raw ability, I don't see him falling off for another couple years. And keep in mind, it's not like he's Dunn or Fielder, his career K rate is really low. Players don't just lose their hitting eye once they turn 33, and his ability to locate the bat anywhere within the strike zone should stay intact. A good slump and some more selective hitting would allow him to produce top tier numbers for a few more years.
Rocinante2: you know Rocinante2: its easy to dismiss the orioles as a bad team ofanrex: go on Rocinante2: i'm done Rocinante2: lmao
Three reasons: 1. wrong side of 30 2. slowly but surely declining production (especially on the bases) 3. injuries
He is still an outstanding hitter but he is definitely past his prime in terms of fantasy baseball. I think 07-08 is pretty much what you can expect going forward.
"Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that." ~George Carlin
Its not so much he's coming back to the pack as the pack is coming up to him. We've been in the middle of what seems like the end of the old and the beginning of the new over the last few years and I think Vlad is a part of that as well. He's still a good player but there are alot more new, young guys who can hang with big Vladdy daddy now that people aren't as goo goo gaa gaa over him like they were 8 years ago.
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by Neato Torpedo » Sat Aug 09, 2008 6:52 pm 
