Montana wrote:Love Votto, Zimmerman, Gordon, next year.......I also suspect Justin Upton to make a significant leap forward.
One guy that's been mentioned that I'd all but guarantee won't bounce back, or be worth anything, is Travis Hafner.
Dude, is D-O-N-E.
I kinda think Hafner will have a nice bounce back season next year. He was solid for a three year period before he had a sudden drop off. Obviously some of the steroid questions lurk around him, he hasnt been named, but his production decline had to come for a reason. Maybe he was struggling with an injury last year. He was a solid .300 hitter for a few years before last year and the beginning of this year. Even a slight shoulder injury could cause him to change his mechanics to cope. The fact he has been on the DL for quite some time now says the injury was pretty severe, he hasn't even started swinging a bat until recently (I think). I don't think steroids could make that much of a difference for somebody. He still looks like a beast, and he's still somewhat young. I drafted him in the 3rd round this year in a H2H with OBP and OPS and that didnt really work out. I had him last year too, so I no as well as anybody the level of dissapointment.
Even so, I think he could be a big steal next year if he is healthy.
Usually I don't consider guys who got injured busts because they have enough stats to make even the crappiest of magazines know how to project them. I have a feeling Furcal is going to be projected pretty high next season, same goes for Vernon Wells. Both guys were hitting the ball well before the injury and Wells even gets the chance to do it again in a week.
I agree with Justin Upton and Victor Martinez (although he might bump his ADP up as well by the end of the season). If Martinez struggles again he could be really cheap next year with a big ceiling. I don't think he's done like Hafner is.
I'll add Tulowitzki and Francoeur. Tulo's should have never been a 3rd round pick but I bet he does better than his ADP next year. I think Francouer will work out whatever happened this year in the offseason.
I'll disagree with Hafner obviously. No way does he come back and he's not going to be a low round pick. I bet he goes in the 10th-12th round and I don't think he'll perform well enough to be drafted there. I think I have to disagree with Weeks and Young as well. I just can't say that average is going to come around for either of them and Young not stealing is worrisome. Without those steals he's an average/below average OF.
by jake_twothousandfive » Wed Aug 06, 2008 11:19 pm
Bounce Back Players Brett Myers Ian Snell Harang Oswalt Carmona Tulo Rollins (he's been decent but just hasn't come close to justifying his expected value entering the season) Figgins (see above) VMart Francoeur
Players Who Won't Bounce Back Hafner Konerko Byrnes Sheffield Izzy D-Train Brad Penny
"Don't take anything for granted, because tomorrow is not promised to any of us." ---Kirby Puckett