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Which of these 3 will get it together the 2nd half?

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Which of these 3 will get it together the 2nd half?

Postby CMCrai » Mon Aug 04, 2008 10:43 pm

Fausto Carmona, Brad Penny, Anibal Sanchez........
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Re: Which of these 3 will get it together the 2nd half?

Postby oddmanout7 » Tue Aug 05, 2008 12:14 am

I like Carmona the best out of that group. Penny has his moments, but doesn't K enough for me, or induce GBs like Carmona. Anibal threw that no no a year or so back, and has look decent so far, but Carmona was pitching like a number 1 last year, something Anibal has never done.
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Re: Which of these 3 will get it together the 2nd half?

Postby StlSluggers » Tue Aug 05, 2008 1:36 pm

Penny doesn't K enough for you, but you like Fausto? He's got the worst K-rate of the bunch. I know Penny's K-Rate is down, but when he's on, it's a solid ratio. If you look, he's been up over 6 per 9 lately, and for most of last season, he was in the 7 per 9 range.While not jaw-dropping, that's certainly solid.

Carmona certainly can do better than he's done lately. His GB%, which is his bread and butter, is just as good as last year. However, last year he had an absurdly high strand rate. Even with the higher probability of DPs from his GB ratio, you can't expect him to maintain an 80% strand rate. I don't see him ever producing like he did last year again, unless he gets just as lucky again. Actually, luck is probably a poor way to put it. If they ever put a gold glove infield behind him, I could see him having a shot at 80% again.

I keep thinking that Sanchez is actually going to fall apart one day. His K/BB is very weak, and his strand rate is very high (and constantly has been, for some reason). Even with 150 IP under his belt, he's still young. I consider him an unknown and, as such, high risk.

Assuming you're playing traditional categorical, Penny has the best shot of helping you out, imo. He's got Manny in his offense now, and he's playing for a "contender."
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Re: Which of these 3 will get it together the 2nd half?

Postby JTWood » Tue Aug 05, 2008 9:11 pm

I'm gonna bump this to see if anyone thinks I sounded like a total moron there.

!+)
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Re: Which of these 3 will get it together the 2nd half?

Postby oddmanout7 » Tue Aug 05, 2008 9:25 pm

Carmona's K rate last season: 5.67
this season: 3.58
Penny's K rate last season: 5.84
this season: 4.94

Carmona GB% last year: 65%
Penny GB% last year: 48%

The stats you gave where indicative of Pennys last 2 or 3 games. I pulled these from baseball cube. I would take the 17% more GB than the 1 additional K.
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Re: Which of these 3 will get it together the 2nd half?

Postby JTWood » Tue Aug 05, 2008 9:36 pm

oddmanout7 wrote:Carmona's K rate last season: 5.67
this season: 3.58
Penny's K rate last season: 5.84
this season: 4.94

Carmona GB% last year: 65%
Penny GB% last year: 48%

The stats you gave where indicative of Pennys last 2 or 3 games. I pulled these from baseball cube. I would take the 17% more GB than the 1 additional K.

But Penny pitches in a big park, and GB% isn't a category.
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Re: Which of these 3 will get it together the 2nd half?

Postby oddmanout7 » Tue Aug 05, 2008 9:41 pm

Neither is big park... :-D

A higher GB% means less balls will be hit in the air, which would correlate with less XBH.
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Re: Which of these 3 will get it together the 2nd half?

Postby JTWood » Tue Aug 05, 2008 9:57 pm

oddmanout7 wrote:Neither is big park... :-D

A higher GB% means less balls will be hit in the air, which would correlate with less XBH.

I understand the traditional implications of FB vs GB, but there are mitigating factors here, too. :-)
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Re: Which of these 3 will get it together the 2nd half?

Postby thedude » Wed Aug 06, 2008 12:52 am

JTWood wrote:I'm gonna bump this to see if anyone thinks I sounded like a total moron there.

!+)


I think you sounded like someone who is driving people from this site. ;-7 :-D

Penny has the longest track record and plays in Chavez ravine, so he is the best bet to pull it together for a good second half (despite being stuck with Manny in Left). Penny also has a slightly better BB:K ratio (though both have pretty mediocre ratios).
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Re: Which of these 3 will get it together the 2nd half?

Postby jmudukes2008 » Wed Aug 06, 2008 2:03 am

oddmanout7 wrote:Carmona's K rate last season: 5.67
this season: 3.58
Penny's K rate last season: 5.84
this season: 4.94

Carmona GB% last year: 65%
Penny GB% last year: 48%

The stats you gave where indicative of Pennys last 2 or 3 games. I pulled these from baseball cube. I would take the 17% more GB than the 1 additional K.


Look at you with all of these fancy stats :-* :-b
The cafe is awesome because of dedicated people like oddmanout who take time to do what the rest of us are sometimes too lazy to do haha.

Personally, I'm going with A-Sanchez...although he has a girl's first name, he has a tough last name in Sanchez. I was once bullied by a kid who's last name was Sanchez...boy was he tough, but sometimes I wish I just punched him in the mouth when I was in 3rd grade and he was in 4th...instead of when I was in 7th and he was in 8th, getting me suspended from the coal mining field trip to scranton, pa.
Long-story short, I don't think Annibal will have a long career persay, but I think he'll be effective for many years, including the second half of this one. If nothing else, his boys behind him are in the pennant race, so he'll get a decent amount of wins as long as he keeps them in the game!!!
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