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This is why Johan should hate everybody and everything ever

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Re: This is why Johan should hate everybody and everything ever

Postby J35J » Sat Aug 23, 2008 8:29 am

I think everyone gets a little too caught up on the 4.5 ERA thing when that is just the outlier...its the WORST a quality start is...it isn't THE quality start. If you calculated everyones quality starts together I bet you'd see it be closer to 3.0 ERA than 4.5

If you think of the quality start in terms of a real baseball game that you are watching....I'd take 6ip and 3er almost everytime out from my starters. The worst you are is down 3-0 and if you can't score a run then it doesn't matter if your pitcher goes 9IP with 1ER. If thats the worst my pitchers do then I'm happy!!
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Re: This is why Johan should hate everybody and everything ever

Postby Omaha Red Sox » Sat Aug 23, 2008 10:52 am

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Re: This is why Johan should hate everybody and everything ever

Postby HOOTIE » Sun Aug 24, 2008 1:54 am

pokerplaya wrote:The "W" stat is probably the most flawed stat in the game.


It CAN be pretty flawed in a given season. But over a career, it generally balances out. Nolan Ryan, considered a hard luck pitcher, balanced out in 807 games, to only -9 wins less then deserved. Imo, saves and blown saves are junk stats, which are highly dependent on too many factors, a pitcher has no control over.

DK, good to see you. Nice piece. Santana has been unlucky by pen. But, his Era has been way lucky, and he has gotton over 5 runs per 9. His declining K/9 has hurt him as well. His expected wins, versus actual wins, is only -1.


http://www.baseballprospectus.com/dt/santajo01.php Look at DW and DR.


http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fanta ... n-santana/
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Re: This is why Johan should hate everybody and everything ever

Postby DK » Mon Aug 25, 2008 1:00 pm

HOOTIE wrote:
pokerplaya wrote:The "W" stat is probably the most flawed stat in the game.


It CAN be pretty flawed in a given season. But over a career, it generally balances out. Nolan Ryan, considered a hard luck pitcher, balanced out in 807 games, to only -9 wins less then deserved. Imo, saves and blown saves are junk stats, which are highly dependent on too many factors, a pitcher has no control over.

DK, good to see you. Nice piece. Santana has been unlucky by pen. But, his Era has been way lucky, and he has gotton over 5 runs per 9. His declining K/9 has hurt him as well. His expected wins, versus actual wins, is only -1.


http://www.baseballprospectus.com/dt/santajo01.php Look at DW and DR.


http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fanta ... n-santana/


Hey HOOTIE, good to see you too. And, well, yeah. Obviously his ERA has been a little lucky over the course of this season. (Although his BABIP has historically been low, he's one of the few pitchers that can sustain it.) The part that annoys me most is that he still has this ERA, lucky or not, and through no fault of his own he's lost at six wins from the bullpen alone.

It's more subjective for me because I'm a Mets fan and I watch Santana and he looks fantastic pretty much all the time, and then he just loses it over and over (again, through no fault of his own).
Yeah, his ERA probably should be higher than 2.64, but right now, it's not, and his record is still pretty hard-luck as a result.
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Re: This is why Johan should hate everybody and everything ever

Postby mweir145 » Mon Aug 25, 2008 2:36 pm

Roy Halladay has 9 losses despite a 2.68 ERA. That might actually be worse.
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Re: This is why Johan should hate everybody and everything ever

Postby bigh0rt » Mon Aug 25, 2008 5:43 pm

bigh0rt wrote:johan ftw

Wow, I was really drunk when I posted this.

Still, Johan FTW.
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Re: This is why Johan should hate everybody and everything ever

Postby DK » Mon Aug 25, 2008 7:31 pm

bigh0rt wrote:
bigh0rt wrote:johan ftw

Wow, I was really drunk when I posted this.

Still, Johan FTW.


LOL! Hort, you should know better than to post in this thread when you're drunk, for chrissakes, you made The Infamous Drunk Thread!
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Re: This is why Johan should hate everybody and everything ever

Postby DK » Tue Sep 23, 2008 10:38 pm

And to think, Johan could be 22-7 right now, and probably far in the lead for the Cy Young.

Of course Lincecum probably deserves the Cy, but the Mets homer in me is still disappointed.
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Re: This is why Johan should hate everybody and everything ever

Postby pokerplaya » Fri Sep 26, 2008 6:32 pm

DK wrote:And to think, Johan could be 22-7 right now, and probably far in the lead for the Cy Young.

Of course Lincecum probably deserves the Cy, but the Mets homer in me is still disappointed.


Agreed on all accounts. And had they won a few of those games, I wouldn't have such a stomach ache going into this weekend.
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Re: This is why Johan should hate everybody and everything ever

Postby Yoda » Fri Sep 26, 2008 7:40 pm

Mets do not deserve anything after another unspectacular season. Bottom of the 9th, man on third, no out and they can't score? Please. That is not a playoff team.
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