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This is why Johan should hate everybody and everything ever

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Re: This is why Johan should hate everybody and everything ever

Postby Ursa » Fri Aug 08, 2008 6:21 pm

Yoda wrote:
Ursa wrote:
jake_twothousandfive wrote:I see where you're coming from, and agree with some of the points that you make, I was just pointing out that I don't think that standards for a quality start are very good. I'd say that 6 IP and 3 ER is more of a mediocre start than a quality start. Unless the requirements for a QS are improved, which I don't see happening anytime soon, then I won't be in favor of switching to it.

Now what I've always wondered is, would it be a good idea to start using ERA+ in place of ERA in fantasy leagues?

Bert Blyleven, Twins color commentator and pretty darn good pitcher in his time, agrees 100% with you. In the course of a long rant Wednesday against how pitchers in general are used nowadays, Blyleven made the same exact point - 6 IP, 3 ER is no better than mediocre. Personally, I'd make QS 6 IP, 2 ER.


Yes but you have to look at the average ERA for a starter to determine what should be considered "quality". Last 10 years, the league avg ERA has been:
NL 4.11-4.45
AL 4.19-5.07

4.50 seems like a pretty good average when you consider both AL and NL.

Your point is very valid, except the ERA for both leagues is bloated by very crappy performances. I haven't graphed this but I would bet that simply using average gives a misleading picture when you think of all the massive ERAs racked up through the season e.g. 1 IP, 8 ER = 72.0 ERA. It takes a lot of very good starts to bring that number down, thus if the outliers are discounted, a league ERA in the region of, say, 4.00 becomes more realistic.

Side note: My pitchers this week have done their very best to raise season ERA in both leagues to stratospheric levels. Monday I had two of them give up grand slams. %-6
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Re: This is why Johan should hate everybody and everything ever

Postby DK » Fri Aug 08, 2008 6:29 pm

jake_twothousandfive wrote:
Your point is very valid, except the ERA for both leagues is bloated by very crappy performances. I haven't graphed this but I would bet that simply using average gives a misleading picture when you think of all the massive ERAs racked up through the season e.g. 1 IP, 8 ER = 72.0 ERA. It takes a lot of very good starts to bring that number down, thus if the outliers are discounted, a league ERA in the region of, say, 4.00 becomes more realistic.

Side note: My pitchers this week have done their very best to raise season ERA in both leagues to stratospheric levels. Monday I had two of them give up grand slams. %-6


You have to take outliers from both sides though. Yes one really bad start will stink up a pitcher's ERA but over the course of a season luck (generally) evens out. You can't just take the bad starts out of the equation.

and also, to bring it back to QS, one sucky start with 8 ER can be neutralized with one good performance in the next start. There's no inflation when counting. That's why it's more a measure of consistent performance - a lot of QS means that your pitcher is generally doing very well. I mean you'll never find a pitcher who pitches exactly 6 IP and 3 ER every time... In fact the best pitchers normally have only a 75-80% QS percentage.
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Re: This is why Johan should hate everybody and everything ever

Postby Amazinz » Fri Aug 08, 2008 6:37 pm

Yeah I could see just looking at starter-only ERA but stripping the outliers would give you a skewed view.
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Re: This is why Johan should hate everybody and everything ever

Postby Yoda » Fri Aug 08, 2008 6:43 pm

Ursa wrote:Your point is very valid, except the ERA for both leagues is bloated by very crappy performances. I haven't graphed this but I would bet that simply using average gives a misleading picture when you think of all the massive ERAs racked up through the season e.g. 1 IP, 8 ER = 72.0 ERA. It takes a lot of very good starts to bring that number down, thus if the outliers are discounted, a league ERA in the region of, say, 4.00 becomes more realistic.

Side note: My pitchers this week have done their very best to raise season ERA in both leagues to stratospheric levels. Monday I had two of them give up grand slams. %-6


A couple of comments. The 4.50 is the total average of all pitchers not just starters. Even if we just look at starters, I'm willing to bet that the average is still very close to 4.50.

How often does 1 IP, 8 ER occur? I'm willing to bet that even 1 IP performances are very rare let alone someone is left in there to give up 8 ER. And as others have pointed out, a bad start can be normalized very quickly by a good start.
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Re: This is why Johan should hate everybody and everything ever

Postby Ursa » Fri Aug 08, 2008 8:38 pm

I was thinking more in terms of removing the dreadful individual performances in order to determine what a REAL quality start is as that was the discussion that was going on at the time. The point I am trying to make, very poorly, is that if 4.50 is accepted as the ERA generated by the QS limit, then a real quality start must be lower than that when the Isringhausen Tuesday ERA (135 or some similar godforsaken number) and the like are removed. Thus Blyleven is right IMO when he says QS as it is currently defined is mediocre, not a word usually associated with Quality.

I do understand that there is no way this could be done in reality (where would the line between crappy and truly dreadful be drawn?). There's also the difficulty of having to use whole numbers to define QS.

It really would make an interesting graph.
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Re: This is why Johan should hate everybody and everything ever

Postby Snakes Gould » Fri Aug 08, 2008 10:42 pm

Yoda wrote:
Ursa wrote:Your point is very valid, except the ERA for both leagues is bloated by very crappy performances. I haven't graphed this but I would bet that simply using average gives a misleading picture when you think of all the massive ERAs racked up through the season e.g. 1 IP, 8 ER = 72.0 ERA. It takes a lot of very good starts to bring that number down, thus if the outliers are discounted, a league ERA in the region of, say, 4.00 becomes more realistic.

Side note: My pitchers this week have done their very best to raise season ERA in both leagues to stratospheric levels. Monday I had two of them give up grand slams. %-6


A couple of comments. The 4.50 is the total average of all pitchers not just starters. Even if we just look at starters, I'm willing to bet that the average is still very close to 4.50.

How often does 1 IP, 8 ER occur? I'm willing to bet that even 1 IP performances are very rare let alone someone is left in there to give up 8 ER. And as others have pointed out, a bad start can be normalized very quickly by a good start.


right. average. why would you want to reward a fantasy team for an average performance.

johan's whip is up to a very high (for him 1.19). his walks are up and his k's are down. mixed in with a low win total and you're actually looking at a subpar year (for johan standards).
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Re: This is why Johan should hate everybody and everything ever

Postby DK » Fri Aug 22, 2008 11:20 pm

Bump for tonight.... After seven shutout innings to make 16 straight scoreless for Johan, his ERA is now at 2.64 and his W-L at 12-7.

He could actually have 20 wins by now already.
And that's not a "long shot," "one in a million," "inconceivable" thing to say.
Given how well he has pitched and the team he plays for, he could very possibly already be a 20-game winner.

And he is 12-7.

*sigh*

at least they're holding his three-run leads.
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Re: This is why Johan should hate everybody and everything ever

Postby bigken117 » Sat Aug 23, 2008 12:06 am

That's why BP would rather build a team around Clams Casino Sabathia ;-7

What difference does it make what his W-L is? As long as he is pitching like the best pitcher in baseball that the Mets thought they were getting when they gave up....well when they traded for him, then they, and their fans, should be happy. Can't stress over things Johan has no control over.

I remember several Sox games where Pedro would pitch a gem but the offense would take the day off and he would take the L or ND. Those lack of wins didn't do anything to taint his legacy here.
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Re: This is why Johan should hate everybody and everything ever

Postby DK » Sat Aug 23, 2008 12:51 am

bigken117 wrote:That's why BP would rather build a team around Clams Casino Sabathia ;-7

What difference does it make what his W-L is? As long as he is pitching like the best pitcher in baseball that the Mets thought they were getting when they gave up....well when they traded for him, then they, and their fans, should be happy. Can't stress over things Johan has no control over.

I remember several Sox games where Pedro would pitch a gem but the offense would take the day off and he would take the L or ND. Those lack of wins didn't do anything to taint his legacy here.


Well anyone who is upset at Johan because he's only 12-7 is mildly delusional, it's clearly not his fault. My point is more geared towards a) Fantasy owners who could use his wins and b) Mets fans who are upset that Johan is not in any Cy talk because of his bullpen (and a couple of bad days by the Mets offense). I'm pretty firmly in the latter category.
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Re: This is why Johan should hate everybody and everything ever

Postby bigh0rt » Sat Aug 23, 2008 1:49 am

johan ftw
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