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Rich Harden

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Re: Rich Harden

Postby Neato Torpedo » Sat Aug 02, 2008 12:03 pm

I drafted him 180-something overall. ;-D
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Re: Rich Harden

Postby deutschland » Sat Aug 02, 2008 1:03 pm

Neato Torpedo wrote:I drafted him 180-something overall. ;-D


187 for me :-)

Unfortunately, I will not be drafting him next year in any of my leagues.
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Re: Rich Harden

Postby AllDay » Sun Aug 03, 2008 4:32 am

pokerplaya wrote:It's long been known around the Cafe that I have a weakness for high upside oft injured pitchers (Prior, Wood, Harden, etc.) I guess that has not changed, because I really do think I'd draft Harden long before the consenus, probably within the top 10 SP's off my draft board.

1. Santana
2. Peavy
3. Webb
4. CC
5. Haren
6. Lincecum
7. Hamels
8. Halladay

9. Harden

That's a quick but fairly accurate representation...when healthy, Harden is arguably the most dominant pitcher in the majors.


I don't know if I have a weakness for them, but I am not scared away by 'injury prone' labels in the middle or late rounds when a guy has huge upside. I've had good luck targeting those types of pitchers later in the draft.

Harden might still be a good value next year if the haters continue to hate. Some people have sworn to never own him again. If they keep their word (unlikely) then he might be a steal once again.
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Re: Rich Harden

Postby Yoda » Sun Aug 03, 2008 10:23 am

If you people actually believe that Harden will fall to mid-late rounds in 09 then you are smoking something fierce (assuming he stays healthy the rest of the year). He'll be off the board top 50 easily.
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Re: Rich Harden

Postby sportsguy138 » Sun Aug 03, 2008 12:34 pm

AllDay wrote:Harden might still be a good value next year if the haters continue to hate. Some people have sworn to never own him again. If they keep their word (unlikely) then he might be a steal once again.


Haters? I don't think anyone hates him, just not willing to use a high pick for a guy that has such a long history of injuries.

The only way he's a steal, next year, is if he stays healthy most of the year and no one can predict that.
AllDay wrote:
I don't know if I have a weakness for them, but I am not scared away by 'injury prone' labels in the middle or late rounds when a guy has huge upside. I've had good luck targeting those types of pitchers later in the draft.


You must have loved Prior.
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Re: Rich Harden

Postby Field » Sun Aug 03, 2008 12:42 pm

sportsguy138 wrote:
AllDay wrote:Harden might still be a good value next year if the haters continue to hate. Some people have sworn to never own him again. If they keep their word (unlikely) then he might be a steal once again.


Haters? I don't think anyone hates him, just not willing to use a high pick for a guy that has such a long history of injuries.

The only way he's a steal, next year, is if he stays healthy most of the year and no one can predict that.
AllDay wrote:
I don't know if I have a weakness for them, but I am not scared away by 'injury prone' labels in the middle or late rounds when a guy has huge upside. I've had good luck targeting those types of pitchers later in the draft.


You must have loved Prior.


Agree. He will be taken in the 4th-5th round if he continues to stay healthy. It's just not worth the gamble. It's fine to take a high upside/injury risk in the 15-18 round area after you have 3-4 solid pitchers, but it's just not prudent to take a guy like that as your ace (see: Bedard).
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Re: Rich Harden

Postby Yoda » Sun Aug 03, 2008 1:02 pm

Field wrote:
sportsguy138 wrote:
AllDay wrote:Harden might still be a good value next year if the haters continue to hate. Some people have sworn to never own him again. If they keep their word (unlikely) then he might be a steal once again.


Haters? I don't think anyone hates him, just not willing to use a high pick for a guy that has such a long history of injuries.

The only way he's a steal, next year, is if he stays healthy most of the year and no one can predict that.
AllDay wrote:
I don't know if I have a weakness for them, but I am not scared away by 'injury prone' labels in the middle or late rounds when a guy has huge upside. I've had good luck targeting those types of pitchers later in the draft.


You must have loved Prior.


Agree. He will be taken in the 4th-5th round if he continues to stay healthy. It's just not worth the gamble. It's fine to take a high upside/injury risk in the 15-18 round area after you have 3-4 solid pitchers, but it's just not prudent to take a guy like that as your ace (see: Bedard).


Also agreed. This is the first year he's come even close to meeting expectations since 2004. If you drafted him every year since then, you were rewarded only once in 5 years (assuming he stays healthy the last two months). 20% chance of meeting expectations is not a good gamble with your top 100 pick IMO.

08 was probably where his pre draft ranking was the lowest in his career and now 09 figures to be the highest.
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Re: Rich Harden

Postby daniel80111 » Sun Aug 03, 2008 2:12 pm

I remember when everyone was bashing me for taking Harden over Verlander in a trade...looks pretty smart now!!! haha
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Re: Rich Harden

Postby sportsguy138 » Sun Aug 03, 2008 4:53 pm

daniel80111 wrote:I remember when everyone was bashing me for taking Harden over Verlander in a trade...looks pretty smart now!!! haha


If you were going to give up so much to get Harden, why didn't you just draft him earlier than that person did. It's not like he was going top 10 rounds or something. :-?
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Re: Rich Harden

Postby ataraxia » Sun Aug 03, 2008 6:47 pm

daniel80111 wrote:I remember when everyone was bashing me for taking Harden over Verlander in a trade...looks pretty smart now!!! haha


How does it make you look smart? Injuries are very, very unpredictable, but certain players are far more prone to injuries than others. I mean, it's great that the trade has worked out for you, but that's ignoring many signs of probability and the fact that you won out wasn't because you had some secret knowledge of Harden that no one else had, but was 99% attributable to luck

That's like saying you ran across the plains with a metal rod attached to your head in a thunderstorm, and just because you weren't struck by lightning despite us telling you to do otherwise, claiming that it was a smart move. :-?
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