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Where do you draft Josh Hamilton next year?

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Re: Where do you draft Josh Hamilton next year?

Postby NZ Eff » Tue Sep 23, 2008 6:16 pm

bigwords wrote:Luck tends to even out with large sample sets. I think others are making this same point, but if he was a bit lucky in the first half, he was a bit unlucky in the second half.



It does even out and Hamilton has been a bit unlucky of late but he was ridiculously lucky in the first half. 100 RBI''s in 2009 are very likely for him if healthy hitting in that spot and in that ballpark but it isn't wise to expect him to go close to 130 again next year.
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Re: Where do you draft Josh Hamilton next year?

Postby Yoda » Tue Sep 23, 2008 7:04 pm

I don't think that anyone is expecting 130+ RBI out of Hamilton.

I'm looking at for 09:
100-30-100-10-.300

28 yo with his talent and skills in that lineup and park is worth at least a 3rd round pick. I'd be happy to grab him in the 2nd.
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Re: Where do you draft Josh Hamilton next year?

Postby bigwords » Tue Sep 23, 2008 7:22 pm

How wise is it to expect any batter to hit 130 RBIs?

Really, though, I don't think his draft position is based on an expectation he'll hit 130 RBIs. Let's just say that if you guaranteed me 130 RBIs, I'd probably move him up and grab him as one of the top 5 players.

Maybe you're all debating the wrong question.

Instead of: Will Josh Hamilton have another 130 RBI season?

How about: Will Josh Hamilton be in the Top 5 or Top 10 in RBIs next season?

Then, Will Josh Hamilton be among the league leaders in HRs and Average? Will he have his share of runs? Will he contribute some steals?

Really, his draft position isn't based on any specific target number, but on his loose projected contributions compared to other players.

Let's not focus on 130 RBIs. Because who can say for sure whether Matt Holliday gets 27 steals again next season. Or whether Sizemore gets 38 steals again. Or whether Miguel Cabrera hits over 35 HR again.

What we can expect is that Hamilton will continue to be a great rbi producer, without pinpointing the exact number. The other thing to say is that Hamilton's value isn't tied to one category. If that was the case, he may as well be named Willy Taveras.

There are certainly legitimate reasons why someone might not fall in love with Hamilton quite just yet -- his injury history, his lack of games played in the majors, his history of drug abuse, his religious devotion (just kidding) -- but debating the degree to how lucky he was in ONE category -- doesn't seem to be that strong an argument for betting either for or against Mr. Hamilton.
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Re: Where do you draft Josh Hamilton next year?

Postby Bwanna » Tue Sep 23, 2008 8:51 pm

bigwords wrote:What we can expect is that Hamilton will continue to be a great rbi producer, without pinpointing the exact number. The other thing to say is that Hamilton's value isn't tied to one category. If that was the case, he may as well be named Willy Taveras.

There are certainly legitimate reasons why someone might not fall in love with Hamilton quite just yet -- his injury history, his lack of games played in the majors, his history of drug abuse, his religious devotion (just kidding) -- but debating the degree to how lucky he was in ONE category -- doesn't seem to be that strong an argument for betting either for or against Mr. Hamilton.


Well said. ;D
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Re: Where do you draft Josh Hamilton next year?

Postby DSheppard » Tue Sep 23, 2008 9:22 pm

Good post bigwords. But I disagree with your, and other commenrts bradley/kinsler one earlier and the discussion has been going, so none the less...

NZ Eff called the kinsler thing bonkers earlier because you can hit with anyone in front of you. But its not his hitting that has had a crazy decline, its his rbis. Pujols is in reality in support of all this, he has the best pure hitting in the league and only has 106 rbis because of the guys in front of him. And only 103 last year.

Anyway, I looked up the all star break stats.

Leadoff spot at the break: .397 obp
Leadoff spot since break: .305 obp

#2 spot at the break: .348
#2 spot since the break: .307

When the discussion is rbis, Hamilton simply didnt have a chance to produce nearly as many. If Hamilton had a major falloff in his actual hitting maybe buy into the bradley theory.

But, a major falloff in a player is Burrell, who's OPS has a 300 point split. Hamilton has a 40. Thats just not that significant a change to indicate he wasnt getting anything to hit or something.
If he duplicates the ~880 ops post ASB next year I imagine he gets significantly more rbi (post asb)..

In any case it should be obvious that it was not simply hamilton being terrible in the second half, his environment both before and after his lineup spot dramatically changed. Combine that with a slight falloff in production, a little worse luck, and viola.. bad stat.
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Re: Where do you draft Josh Hamilton next year?

Postby NZ Eff » Wed Sep 24, 2008 2:09 am

DSheppard wrote:NZ Eff called the kinsler thing bonkers earlier because you can hit with anyone in front of you. But its not his hitting that has had a crazy decline, its his rbis.


Hamilton hit .350 with RISP before the ASB and he's hit .230 with RISP since. End of story.
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Re: Where do you draft Josh Hamilton next year?

Postby Snakes Gould » Wed Sep 24, 2008 2:21 am

bigwords wrote:How wise is it to expect any batter to hit 130 RBIs?


yes. ryan howard.
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Re: Where do you draft Josh Hamilton next year?

Postby DSheppard » Wed Sep 24, 2008 4:35 am

NZ Eff wrote:
DSheppard wrote:NZ Eff called the kinsler thing bonkers earlier because you can hit with anyone in front of you. But its not his hitting that has had a crazy decline, its his rbis.


Hamilton hit .350 with RISP before the ASB and he's hit .230 with RISP since. End of story.


Which is.. luck. You think he lost his clutchness? We already said he was getting a flukish ammount of rbis with good luck before the break and bad luck in them post break (the .360 for 2 weeks with 0 rbi), the statistical representation of that (batting with risp) is fine to quote, but its already been brought in the discussion. by you I think..

Im simply saying that the people in front of him losing 60 points in OBP from the designated cutoff point has an obvious impact on his rbis, and is a significant factor among others. It clearly is.

And that a .920 to .880 pre/post split is not some tragic fall, even if its made to look worse by the RISP splits, his lineup, etc. RISP batting doesnt have much statistical evidence to be much more than a fluke. All in all for the season his RISP splits were above average, but not too crazy.

Look at the hitters in the middle of the texas lineup for the past decade. Michael Young put up 100 rbis in the #2 spot a couple times... theres no reason to think hamilton isnt capable of 120 in the #3 spot again. Which reminds me of tex, who early in his career put up those monster home/away splits you referenced earlier before reversing them for a year. Hows he working out outside arlington?

Anyway this is all getting very convoluted. Pass on him in the third if you want.
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Re: Where do you draft Josh Hamilton next year?

Postby bigwords » Wed Sep 24, 2008 9:27 am

Actually, I do think the "second half swoon" is a legitimate reason why one might be cautious on Hamilton. I also said in another post that I'm unconcerned with small sample sets. But if you add up the fact that he looked inconsistent plus the fact that this is only his second year in the major leagues, I think you can make a legitimate argument that he hasn't established a baseline performance expectation for next year and is therefore a bit riskier as a first or early second round pick.

I'm not saying that this would necessarily be my argument. Just that I can certainly see it. His exact RBI total and whether that was derived from luck or skill isn't a good basis for making a determination on Hamilton's value. But a more complete picture that encompasses his experience and performance cycle, might.

Not sure I buy that, however. Almost all players have hot stretches and swoons during a season.

On the other point, I certainly think Ian Kinsler has played a role in his declining RBI totals, don't get me wrong.

I just thought it might be interesting to add the Milton Bradley theory too. His walk rate is up in the second half. His contact rate is down. Obviously, his home runs are way down too. I can't say I watch too many Texas Rangers games, but I think it's reasonable to think that pitchers aren't giving him great pitches. Would better lineup protection help him out? Maybe. I guess that would form the basis of the Milton Bradley theory.
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