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Where do you draft Josh Hamilton next year?

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Re: Where do you draft Josh Hamilton next year?

Postby Bwanna » Mon Sep 22, 2008 7:43 pm

NZ Eff wrote:
Bwanna wrote:To say that his RBI totals for next year could probably be less than this year -- is accurate.

To say his RBI totals are a 'fluke' is to ignore the fact that he 1) plays half his games in Arlington, 2) usually hits cleanup behind some above average OBP'ers and finally 3) to ignore the fact that some hitters simply hit better with runners in scoring position.

It's still important to remember that Josh has just completed his 2nd full year in the league after a 3 year absence.


They are a fluke. He's hit .350 since September 6th in 50 AB's including a 3/4 and 4/5 night yet he has zero RBI's.


You're making a judgment ("it's a fluke") on a 46 AB span sampling size? Especially when he projects to finish the season around 625 ABs? Hmmm.

Again, to say his RBI totals for this year (standing at 124) are a fluke is simply incorrect.
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Re: Where do you draft Josh Hamilton next year?

Postby NZ Eff » Mon Sep 22, 2008 7:53 pm

Bwanna wrote:You're making a judgment ("it's a fluke") on a 46 AB span sampling size? Especially when he projects to finish the season around 625 ABs? Hmmm.



No, what I'm doing is pointing out how fickle RBI stats are and how reliant they are on so many different factors. Luck plays a big part, good and bad. Hamilton has 0 RBI over the past 2 weeks yet has a .360 BA. That is a fluke.

His high ridiculously high RBI totals before the ASB were also a fluke.
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Re: Where do you draft Josh Hamilton next year?

Postby Field » Mon Sep 22, 2008 8:11 pm

HR Derby Curse? ;-7

Regardless, I would still take him at the back end of the first round. He's capable of putting together a few 40 HR seasons, if he does that in that park, his counting stats will be ridiculous. Kinsler is a much riskier early selection in my book.
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Re: Where do you draft Josh Hamilton next year?

Postby Yoda » Mon Sep 22, 2008 8:16 pm

Hitting in the middle of the order in that lineup and park, he should definitely get 100+ RBIs again. They pitched around him the entire season also. Remember that this is only his second MLB season. He is still young and has room to get better.
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Re: Where do you draft Josh Hamilton next year?

Postby DSheppard » Mon Sep 22, 2008 9:09 pm

His rbis make perfect sense.

Ian Kinsler and pre-broken finger michael young in front of you: lots of rbi chances
Joaquin Arias & co and post-broken finger michael young: not nearly as many.

The luck in even more rbi chances than youd think in the first half is significantly counteracted by having below expected chances in the last third of the season.

115-120 rbi should be expected if he plays a full season again. A reasonable projection of 30 hr/115 rbi with a high average and 8 steals is certainly better than "3rd rounder at best". Id love to be in the league where I could get Hamilton in the 4th round.
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Re: Where do you draft Josh Hamilton next year?

Postby RedSoxNation04 » Mon Sep 22, 2008 9:55 pm

The Artful Dodger wrote:I'd say Hamilton's production tailed off more sharply than anticipated because of no Ian Kinsler setting the table. He's confidently a 2nd rounder at worst.

Not going yard since September 1st doesn't help all that much either... His avg and ops are good, but he's hitting a lot of singles with the occasional double, mostly with the bases empty. Kinsler being gone definitely hurts, but I think Hamilton's power stroke has just tailed off here in the second half which, considering this is his first full season, is not so much of a surprise.
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Re: Where do you draft Josh Hamilton next year?

Postby Bloody Sox » Tue Sep 23, 2008 11:47 am

RedSoxNation04 wrote:
The Artful Dodger wrote:I'd say Hamilton's production tailed off more sharply than anticipated because of no Ian Kinsler setting the table. He's confidently a 2nd rounder at worst.

Not going yard since September 1st doesn't help all that much either... His avg and ops are good, but he's hitting a lot of singles with the occasional double, mostly with the bases empty. Kinsler being gone definitely hurts, but I think Hamilton's power stroke has just tailed off here in the second half which, considering this is his first full season, is not so much of a surprise.

I think this is the main issue. Its his first full season and I think its very reasonable to expect that if he stays healthy he will at least do as well in 2009 as he did this year. Even if you think his RBI count in the first half of the year was fluky, I'd argue its been low in the second half due to him wearing down a bit (he had to be removed from a few games during the summer due to exhaustion - its damn hot down in Arlington in July). I think with a full year under his belt he'll be more consistent next year, with similar RBI totals and closer to 40 HRs. There's no way he should be lower than a 3rd round pick in anyone's rankings.
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Re: Where do you draft Josh Hamilton next year?

Postby Bwanna » Tue Sep 23, 2008 12:12 pm

NZ Eff wrote:Hamilton has 0 RBI over the past 2 weeks yet has a .360 BA. That is a fluke.

Thank you for recognizing my point.

NZ Eff wrote:His high ridiculously high RBI totals before the ASB were also a fluke.

I don't think anyone *ever* said his *pre-ASB" RBI totals weren't a fluke - I certainly didn't. I'm simply refuting the statement made early that *this season's* RBI totals are "a fluke". They are not.


DSheppard wrote:His rbis make perfect sense.

Ian Kinsler and pre-broken finger michael young in front of you: lots of rbi chances
Joaquin Arias & co and post-broken finger michael young: not nearly as many.

The luck in even more rbi chances than youd think in the first half is significantly counteracted by having below expected chances in the last third of the season.

115-120 rbi should be expected if he plays a full season again. A reasonable projection of 30 hr/115 rbi with a high average and 8 steals is certainly better than "3rd rounder at best". Id love to be in the league where I could get Hamilton in the 4th round.

Agreed.

If you pass on Hamilton at 2.12, and the rest of the preceding picks generally synch with ADP, you're simply going against a fairly low risk/high reward payout. Just don't make much sense unless you have some inside information the rest of us don't.

Yoda wrote:Hitting in the middle of the order in that lineup and park, he should definitely get 100+ RBIs again. They pitched around him the entire season also. Remember that this is only his second MLB season. He is still young and has room to get better.

Yup. ;D
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LFoD '08 [1st/3rd], '10 [1st/3rd], '11 [1st/2nd], '12 [1st/1st]
123Innings '08 [1st/1st], '09 [1st/3rd], '10 [1st/4th], '12 [4th/2nd]
BRAL '09 2nd, '10 1st
Cool 3.0 '08 1st
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Re: Where do you draft Josh Hamilton next year?

Postby NZ Eff » Tue Sep 23, 2008 5:26 pm

Bwanna wrote:I don't think anyone *ever* said his *pre-ASB" RBI totals weren't a fluke - I certainly didn't. I'm simply refuting the statement made early that *this season's* RBI totals are "a fluke". They are not.


:-? You didn't think that statement out very well did you?
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Re: Where do you draft Josh Hamilton next year?

Postby bigwords » Tue Sep 23, 2008 6:04 pm

Luck tends to even out with large sample sets. I think others are making this same point, but if he was a bit lucky in the first half, he was a bit unlucky in the second half.

I also think that some people may be overemphasizing the Ian Kinsler factor and underemphasizing the Milton Bradley factor. You know, the guy who hits behind him and is a few at bats short of competing for the batting average crown. The guy who had an unbelievable, monster 1st half as well, and has predictably battled injuries and been in- and out- of the lineup over the last couple of months. Wish I knew how Hamilton has performed with Bradley in the lineup vs. Bradley out of the lineup. I'd love to know the stat. As much as Bradley is such a pain in the neck, I'm sure San Diego's offense missed him this year. Man, I would love a thread about where everyone is drafting Milton Bradley next year. Ha.
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