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Where do you draft Josh Hamilton next year?

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Re: Where do you draft Josh Hamilton next year?

Postby dclark0699 » Sun Aug 03, 2008 7:02 pm

The Artful Dodger wrote:You can make a good argument for Hamilton over Reyes and Sizemore but I'd still take Holliday. Historically his away OPS hasn't been stellar, but I'd think it's overblown although I can see why given that based off his non-Coors numbers, he isn't a first round caliber player. Holliday has actually been respectable away from Coors though this year for what it's worth.


I would certainly take Holliday over him. He's hitting .319 with 8 HR (9 counting today's) away from Coors - and most hitters hit somewhat better at home. Coors field just has tons of outfield space - it isn't like the ball magically falls to the ground there. Unless he goes to a big-time pitcher's park, I don't expect to see much of a decline in his numbers.
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Re: Where do you draft Josh Hamilton next year?

Postby NZ Eff » Mon Sep 22, 2008 4:21 pm

Third round at best
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Re: Where do you draft Josh Hamilton next year?

Postby Bloody Sox » Mon Sep 22, 2008 4:39 pm

NZ Eff wrote:Third round at worst

Fixed.
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Re: Where do you draft Josh Hamilton next year?

Postby NZ Eff » Mon Sep 22, 2008 4:59 pm

Bloody Sox wrote:
NZ Eff wrote:Third round at worst

Fixed.


Well there's no way he's a first rounder.
I could understand people reaching for him in the 2nd given his first half but the simple fact is his RBI totals were simply a fluke and won't be repeated next season so to draft him here is a mistake.
Third round is where he should be taken at best but I wouldn't look at him until around pick 50 (early 5th round).

Take a look at his away splits this season. A .260 BA with 12 HR's in 300 AB's. His value is very dependent on playing half his games in Texas.

Third round at best.
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Re: Where do you draft Josh Hamilton next year?

Postby slomo007 » Mon Sep 22, 2008 5:40 pm

NZ Eff wrote:
Bloody Sox wrote:
NZ Eff wrote:Third round at worst

Fixed.


Well there's no way he's a first rounder.
I could understand people reaching for him in the 2nd given his first half but the simple fact is his RBI totals were simply a fluke and won't be repeated next season so to draft him here is a mistake.
Third round is where he should be taken at best but I wouldn't look at him until around pick 50 (early 5th round).

Take a look at his away splits this season. A .260 BA with 12 HR's in 300 AB's. His value is very dependent on playing half his games in Texas.

Third round at best.


Why does that matter? He will still be playing half his games in Texas next season.
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Re: Where do you draft Josh Hamilton next year?

Postby Bwanna » Mon Sep 22, 2008 5:57 pm

To say that his RBI totals for next year could probably be less than this year -- is accurate.

To say his RBI totals are a 'fluke' is to ignore the fact that he 1) plays half his games in Arlington, 2) usually hits cleanup behind some above average OBP'ers and finally 3) to ignore the fact that some hitters simply hit better with runners in scoring position.

It's still important to remember that Josh has just completed his 2nd full year in the league after a 3 year absence.
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Re: Where do you draft Josh Hamilton next year?

Postby The Artful Dodger » Mon Sep 22, 2008 5:58 pm

I'd say Hamilton's production tailed off more sharply than anticipated because of no Ian Kinsler setting the table. He's confidently a 2nd rounder at worst.
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Re: Where do you draft Josh Hamilton next year?

Postby NZ Eff » Mon Sep 22, 2008 6:18 pm

The Artful Dodger wrote:I'd say Hamilton's production tailed off more sharply than anticipated because of no Ian Kinsler setting the table. He's confidently a 2nd rounder at worst.


That's bunkum. Who's setting the table for Manny in LA and for Pujols in St Louis? Who was setting the table for Berkman and Lee in Houston before the All Star break?

In fact Hamilton has his highest BA, OBP, OPS in September with no KInsler in sight.
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Re: Where do you draft Josh Hamilton next year?

Postby bigwords » Mon Sep 22, 2008 6:20 pm

I'd take him as a very, very early 2nd round pick. He might sneak into the first round for me.

I'd take Sizemore, Holliday, Reyes, Rollins, Utley, Hanley, A-Rod, Pujols, Wright, Cabrera, Berkman before him. (in no particular order)

I'd take him over Howard and Soriano, who I'm not very high on for 2009, and would have to think about Hamilton vs. Fielder and Crawford.

Here's the interesting thing, however. I'm not certain that Josh Hamilton would be my #1 Texas Rangers pick if it wasn't for Ian Kinsler's injury. I'll have to see how Kinsler looks in the preseason, but had Kinsler stayed fully healthy, I think I would have chosen Kinsler ahead of Hamilton. Probably a moot point right now.
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Re: Where do you draft Josh Hamilton next year?

Postby NZ Eff » Mon Sep 22, 2008 6:26 pm

Bwanna wrote:To say that his RBI totals for next year could probably be less than this year -- is accurate.

To say his RBI totals are a 'fluke' is to ignore the fact that he 1) plays half his games in Arlington, 2) usually hits cleanup behind some above average OBP'ers and finally 3) to ignore the fact that some hitters simply hit better with runners in scoring position.

It's still important to remember that Josh has just completed his 2nd full year in the league after a 3 year absence.


They are a fluke. He's hit .350 since September 6th in 50 AB's including a 3/4 and 4/5 night yet he has zero RBI's.
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