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Harden, glavin or leiter

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Postby hybrid » Wed Mar 03, 2004 11:42 pm

New Zealand Fan wrote:
RynMan wrote:im biased but im goin harden. there is no way he is overhyped, he has stuff to match the guys on that staff and he will only be better this year.


In the past 4 seasons over 70% of rookie starting pitchers have declined in their second seasons. :~(


so? a lot of rookie pitchers suck.
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Postby emb0lus » Thu Mar 04, 2004 1:25 am

somehow Leiter has managed to be a pretty decent fantasy pitcher for the Mets. I'd give him the nod since Glavine hasn't made a good transition, especially if Leiter remains the #3 guy since he won't be facing other teams' aces.
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Postby RynMan » Thu Mar 04, 2004 1:48 am

New Zealand Fan wrote:
RynMan wrote:im biased but im goin harden. there is no way he is overhyped, he has stuff to match the guys on that staff and he will only be better this year.


In the past 4 seasons over 70% of rookie starting pitchers have declined in their second seasons. :~(


guys with the potential that rich harden has?
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Postby matrick » Thu Mar 04, 2004 7:35 am

You guys can have those two soft-tossing blue hairs, I'll take Harden
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Postby polyphonic » Thu Mar 04, 2004 7:38 am

I think that with Reyes, Matsui and Cameron manning the middle, Leiter and Glavine will have much better years. Harden really didn't look very good down the stretch last year, and the Oakland offense is pretty anemic. Still, the Coliseum is a great place for pitchers. I'd go 1. Leiter 2. Harden 3. Glavine
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Postby matrick » Thu Mar 04, 2004 8:29 am

In the past 4 seasons over 70% of rookie starting pitchers have declined in their second seasons. :~([/quote]


Source?
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Postby LBJackal » Thu Mar 04, 2004 8:45 am

No I think I read this in a thread a few weeks ago. It was something like 1/3 get worse, 1/3 get better, and 1/3 stay the same. Give or take 1/3 :-b

Regardless, you can't compare one of the top rated rookies from last year who didn't get much of a chance to every single rookie. Obviously the top ones have a better chance of improving on a bad first year. He couldn't get any worse, so that idea that 70% decline, even if it were true, would be irrelevent.

If you want upside, go with Harden. If you're going to rely on the guy and want someone who'll have a rotation spot all year, pick Leiter. But if you're relying on Letier or Glavine anyway, I pity you.

Take a chance on Harden.
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Postby HOOTIE » Fri Mar 05, 2004 3:35 am

New Zealand Fan wrote: In the past 4 seasons over 70% of rookie starting pitchers have declined in their second seasons. :~(


Considering you looked at only 52 sp, and then decreased guys who actually increased (Buehrle), i don't buy 70%. Just doing a quick glance at 100 sp, more increased then decreased, although i didn't group any into the stayed the same, since i'm not sure what % James likely used for it.
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