mweir145 wrote:I should have said they've been one of the better teams in the league when looking at run differential (the main factor that goes into a team's future wins and losses), I apologize.
That is funny, because run differential is also the main factor in determining current wins and losses, and that is where the Blue Jays have been nothing more than mediocre.
5th in the AL in 3rd order standings (it uses AEQR and AEQRA), 8th in the majors. I guess it depends on your definition of mediocre, but that really isn't that bad for a team that is hitting for a .700 OPS with RISP.
By using this instead of regular standings, I am taking the luck out of the equation and showing how well these teams have actually played. It's a much better way of predicting a team's future success because a team's luck can't be counted on to stay the same.
Whether clutch hitting exists is a very old debate among people who follow the game. They key is this (from the wikipedia site), though:
"Most studies on the matter involved comparing performance in the "clutch" category of statistics (production with runners in scoring position, performance late in close games, etc.) between seasons; if clutch hitting were an actual skill, it would follow that the same players would do well in the clutch statistics year in and year out (the correlation coefficient between players' performances over multiple seasons would be high). Cramer's study was the first of its kind, and it found that clutch hitting numbers between seasons for the same player varied wildly; in fact, the variance was the kind one would expect if the numbers had been selected randomly. Since Cramer published his results, many others have tried to find some evidence that clutch hitting is a skill, but almost every study has confirmed Cramer's initial findings: that "clutch hitting," in terms of certain players being able to "rise to the occasion" under pressure, is an illusion."
Back to the original topic, an article from a few weeks back:
From Wednesday's Globe and Mail
July 15, 2008 at 10:35 PM EDT
NEW YORK — Paul Godfrey says Roy Halladay is the Toronto Blue Jays' Derek Jeter. In other words, he won't let him go without a fight.
"He's the Derek Jeter of our organization because he epitomizes everything you want in a player on and off the field," the Blue Jays president and chief executive officer said yesterday before the All-Star Game, referring to Jeter, the New York Yankees' captain and shortstop.
"He's a role model. To be quite honest, the things he said [Monday] were just Roy expressing the opinions and concerns he, I and a lot of people have with respect to the way the club has functioned in the last few years.
"It's not for lack of money. It's not for lack of trying. But you don't want Roy Halladay to ever think there's no hope of winning in Toronto."
Halladay, who pitched the fourth inning of the All-Star Game, on Monday expressed a growing sense of frustration with the organization's inability to get over the hump and win the American League East Division. Coupled with that was a concern about the possible direction of the team, which could be poised for a major front-office overhaul.
Halladay has seldom been as open about his feelings as he was at Monday's media session. But Godfrey did not appear to be completely surprised, because he revealed that he had spoken to Halladay's wife, Brandi, over the weekend "about where the club is going."
Brandi Halladay is heavily involved in the Blue Jays wives' foundation.
Her husband seemed surprised when he was told his statements had some Blue Jays fans perched on a ledge.
"The question that was asked was, 'Is winning a priority to you?' And obviously my answer to that is yes," Halladay said. "I've always said right from the beginning I'd rather win in Toronto than anywhere else. Honestly, it's something that I've never contemplated.
"I have two years left on my contract, and at that point we'll decide what happens from there.
"They [the fans] shouldn't be worried I'm leaving," he said.
"There's no chance if I have anything to say about it that I'm going anywhere. I can understand maybe disappointment with the way we're going. But as long as it's up to me, I'm staying."
The Blue Jays can be expected to try and hammer out an extension with Halladay during the winter — a contract that because of its size and scope would likely require the general manager and club president to be involved intimately in discussions.
Halladay is open to an extension, but he does not want to negotiate during the season in 2009.
"Absolutely," Halladay said. "It's hard to talk about things that haven't happened.
"If that were to happen, would I be interested? Yes. Would I be open to talking about it? Yes. It's something to this point we haven't gotten to."