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Is there any chance of this happening?

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Re: Is there any chance of this happening?

Postby mweir145 » Sun Jul 27, 2008 3:29 pm

RedSoxNation04 wrote:
mweir145 wrote:
RedSoxNation04 wrote:Well, actually, no...they're not better than the Sox, the Yanks or the Rays and they won't be either of the next 2-3 years. Sooooooooooooo, if they are only the 4th best team in their division, please enlighten me as to how they make the playoffs?

Did you just miss the standings that noted they have been just as good as the Yankees THIS year, and nearly as good as the Rays and Sox? Seriously all it would have taken was a bit of luck even this year to do it. Writing off a team that has 25M+ to spend this offseason and a team that wasn't even that far off the mark this year is the wrong thing to do. There actually was a time when the Yankees and Red Sox didn't make the playoffs even if you can't remember it, it isn't out of the total realm of possibilities.

It is out of the realm of possibilities...they just can't keep up with the other teams in the AL East right now.

Saying things blindly doesn't make them true.
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Re: Is there any chance of this happening?

Postby mweir145 » Sun Jul 27, 2008 3:34 pm

BTW bdro, if you really think there is no hope for this team, trading Roy Halladay is EXACTLY the thing they should be doing.
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Re: Is there any chance of this happening?

Postby RedSoxNation04 » Sun Jul 27, 2008 3:52 pm

mweir145 wrote:
RedSoxNation04 wrote:
mweir145 wrote:Did you just miss the standings that noted they have been just as good as the Yankees THIS year, and nearly as good as the Rays and Sox? Seriously all it would have taken was a bit of luck even this year to do it. Writing off a team that has 25M+ to spend this offseason and a team that wasn't even that far off the mark this year is the wrong thing to do. There actually was a time when the Yankees and Red Sox didn't make the playoffs even if you can't remember it, it isn't out of the total realm of possibilities.

It is out of the realm of possibilities...they just can't keep up with the other teams in the AL East right now.

Saying things blindly doesn't make them true.

Blindly? You're kidding me right? Get a grip already...
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Re: Is there any chance of this happening?

Postby mweir145 » Sun Jul 27, 2008 3:57 pm

RedSoxNation04 wrote:Blindly? You're kidding me right? Get a grip already...

I'm the one that's actually tried to form the logical argument here, using evidence to support my point. Saying things like the Blue Jays can't make it because they just can't doesn't really seem like a good one to me. I shouldn't have to remind you that they already finished ahead of Boston two years ago.
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Re: Is there any chance of this happening?

Postby RedSoxNation04 » Sun Jul 27, 2008 5:01 pm

mweir145 wrote:
RedSoxNation04 wrote:Blindly? You're kidding me right? Get a grip already...

I'm the one that's actually tried to form the logical argument here, using evidence to support my point. Saying things like the Blue Jays can't make it because they just can't doesn't really seem like a good one to me. I shouldn't have to remind you that they already finished ahead of Boston two years ago.

Well, you can use all the evidence you want to support your claims Mr. logical, but when I make the statement that they won't make the playoffs this year you only need to look at the standings and the overall condition of your team to acknowledge the logic of that argument. But, to provide you with some statistical evidence here are the standings: http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/standings;_ ... 2x4wYRvLYF

When I say they won't make the playoffs next year or the year after, it is both speculation and my opinion. From reading this thread start to finish, I find that I am not the only one who thinks so. And, yes, I cannot back it up with logical evidence because we're talking about what will happen in the future...I don't actually know what will happen since I lost my crystal ball, but I'm sure you'll argue this pont as well so go ahead...
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Re: Is there any chance of this happening?

Postby mweir145 » Sun Jul 27, 2008 5:13 pm

RedSoxNation04 wrote:
mweir145 wrote:
RedSoxNation04 wrote:Blindly? You're kidding me right? Get a grip already...

I'm the one that's actually tried to form the logical argument here, using evidence to support my point. Saying things like the Blue Jays can't make it because they just can't doesn't really seem like a good one to me. I shouldn't have to remind you that they already finished ahead of Boston two years ago.

Well, you can use all the evidence you want to support your claims Mr. logical, but when I make the statement that they won't make the playoffs this year you only need to look at the standings and the overall condition of your team to acknowledge the logic of that argument. But, to provide you with some statistical evidence here are the standings: http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/standings;_ ... 2x4wYRvLYF

When I say they won't make the playoffs next year or the year after, it is both speculation and my opinion. From reading this thread start to finish, I find that I am not the only one who thinks so. And, yes, I cannot back it up with logical evidence because we're talking about what will happen in the future...I don't actually know what will happen since I lost my crystal ball, but I'm sure you'll argue this pont as well so go ahead...

It's becoming quite clear to me that you haven't bothered reading what I've written.

The 3rd order standings, btw, are far better predictors of the future than the regular standings. The real standings merely show what a team has done, luck included.
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Re: Is there any chance of this happening?

Postby dod959 » Sun Jul 27, 2008 5:29 pm

Using luck as an argument is silly. The Jays buckle in pressure situations, period. They don't know how to win games and just because some games they win by 10 runs and inflate their run differential doesn't mean they are actually that good.

This is real life baseball, not rotisserie, all that counts are Ws and the Jays just don't know how to get them.

But I'll bet you they'll turn it on in September when the games don't matter lol.
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Re: Is there any chance of this happening?

Postby mweir145 » Sun Jul 27, 2008 6:16 pm

The fact that they've hit so poorly in the clutch compared to their stats in normal situations is entirely based on luck (and as you might have noticed, they've been doing slightly better lately, due to regression to the mean). Hiting with RISP is not a good evaluating tool for any player because of how it varies year to year, this is basic stuff here. :-o
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Re: Is there any chance of this happening?

Postby bdrotoronto » Sun Jul 27, 2008 8:11 pm

mweir145 wrote:A team's 1 run record is all based on luck

mweir145 wrote:The fact that they've hit so poorly in the clutch compared to their stats in normal situations is entirely based on luck

Wait a minute.. WHAT?!?..

mweir145 wrote:BTW bdro, if you really think there is no hope for this team, trading Roy Halladay is EXACTLY the thing they should be doing.

If I were running a fantasy team I would actually agree with this. But if Halladay goes then this team literally has no core to build around (I don't think guys like Wells and Rios are good enough to constitute a core, even though their salaries demand that a new GM will get stuck with them as such), and it's rare to get a player of Halladay's quality in recent years who actually likes being here and wants to stick around. That's the kind of player this team needs--get rid of guys like AJ Burnett instead who are indifferent to the team/town, even if they bring less return. Actually, pretty much the entire rest of the team would get less than 'full value' in return in trades, but I think that's an pretty serious indictment of the kind of quality JP's thrown together more than anything..
You've got a diamond, You've got nine men
You've got a hat and a bat, And that's not all..
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Re: Is there any chance of this happening?

Postby buffalobillsrul2002 » Sun Jul 27, 2008 8:56 pm

bdrotoronto wrote:
mweir145 wrote:A team's 1 run record is all based on luck

mweir145 wrote:The fact that they've hit so poorly in the clutch compared to their stats in normal situations is entirely based on luck

Wait a minute.. WHAT?!?..

mweir145 wrote:BTW bdro, if you really think there is no hope for this team, trading Roy Halladay is EXACTLY the thing they should be doing.

If I were running a fantasy team I would actually agree with this. But if Halladay goes then this team literally has no core to build around (I don't think guys like Wells and Rios are good enough to constitute a core, even though their salaries demand that a new GM will get stuck with them as such), and it's rare to get a player of Halladay's quality in recent years who actually likes being here and wants to stick around. That's the kind of player this team needs--get rid of guys like AJ Burnett instead who are indifferent to the team/town, even if they bring less return. Actually, pretty much the entire rest of the team would get less than 'full value' in return in trades, but I think that's an pretty serious indictment of the kind of quality JP's thrown together more than anything..


Both of you are going to have a hard time convincing the other whether or not "clutchness" is actually real or a myth....
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