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Is there any chance of this happening?

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Re: Is there any chance of this happening?

Postby mweir145 » Sun Jul 27, 2008 1:46 pm

Zito is God wrote:
Outside of DH and SS, nearly all of their players are above average offensively for their position


This actually made me chuckle. When you say Scott Rolen and Lyle Overbay are guys that put up "above average" numbers offensively we know you're dellusional.

Well what's actually look at this instead of making our decisions based on nothing:

Overbay ranks 6th as a 1B in OPS in the AL.
Scott Rolen ranks 7th as a 3B in OPS in the AL (although I think it's hardly fair to judge him right now based on the monster slump he's in. Before July, he had a .850 OPS which was good for 3rd in the league).

So they are above-average, if only slightly. The corners are clearly not the offensive power positions in the AL that they once were.

I think the defense from both of them easily makes up what they lose in offense, though as I said, they are both above-average for their positions. If they had actually a very good bat at DH or some other position, their supposed lack of offense wouldn't look so glaring.


Great argument above me by bdrotoronto by the way. They never make the playoffs, they never have games that are actually important, and hell the Orioles are headed in a much better direction than the Jays and I guarantee the Orioles have a better season as early as next year. Orioles have Adam Jones, Markakis, Wieters, Tillman, Liz, and other prospects as their cornerstones. They are also doing the right thing by (most likely) moving Brian Roberts either during the deadline or in the offseason to get even more prospects. That team has a bunch of young talent now and Chris Ray is coming back as well. Dealing Sherril who has been a top AL closer will net even more talent. For the Jays, they choose to keep this talent that they know simply cannot get them to win by itself, and therefore their record speaks for itself. The team is terrible. Sorry. End of story.

Did you not look at the 3rd order standings? They've played just as well as the Yankees have. If the Jays are terrible, the Yankees are just as bad. :-b With probably 30M to spend and prospects like Snider, Campbell, and Arencibia coming up over the next year or so, I don't see the Orioles making that jump over the Jays. Sorry. Period.
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Re: Is there any chance of this happening?

Postby mweir145 » Sun Jul 27, 2008 1:54 pm

And don't get me wrong here, I'm not saying this current version of the Blue Jays is a playoff team. However, they are far closer to that territory than a lot of people give them credit for (even their own fans), and if they were playing in any division in baseball, they'd probably be right there.
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Re: Is there any chance of this happening?

Postby RedSoxNation04 » Sun Jul 27, 2008 2:06 pm

mweir145 wrote:
RedSoxNation04 wrote:
Halladay signed a 3 year extension for 40 million. Money certainly doesn't appear to be the decision maker for him here.

I mean if he's going to give the team a bargain, why not take it?


Who's to say he will give them another discount after they continue to miss the playoffs and finish 4th or last in the AL East for the next couple years??

He's under contract for two more years. And despite the fact that they are 4th right now, I just showed you that they have in reality been one of the better teams in the league this season.

being one of the better teams in the league this season is not getting them into the playoffs this year, next year or the year after...
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Re: Is there any chance of this happening?

Postby mweir145 » Sun Jul 27, 2008 2:10 pm

RedSoxNation04 wrote:being one of the better teams in the league this season is not getting them into the playoffs this year, next year or the year after...

Well actually, yes it might. That's the point here.
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Re: Is there any chance of this happening?

Postby RedSoxNation04 » Sun Jul 27, 2008 2:21 pm

mweir145 wrote:
RedSoxNation04 wrote:being one of the better teams in the league this season is not getting them into the playoffs this year, next year or the year after...

Well actually, yes it might. That's the point here.

Well, actually, no...they're not better than the Sox, the Yanks or the Rays and they won't be either of the next 2-3 years. Sooooooooooooo, if they are only the 4th best team in their division, please enlighten me as to how they make the playoffs?
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Re: Is there any chance of this happening?

Postby mweir145 » Sun Jul 27, 2008 2:42 pm

RedSoxNation04 wrote:
mweir145 wrote:
RedSoxNation04 wrote:being one of the better teams in the league this season is not getting them into the playoffs this year, next year or the year after...

Well actually, yes it might. That's the point here.

Well, actually, no...they're not better than the Sox, the Yanks or the Rays and they won't be either of the next 2-3 years. Sooooooooooooo, if they are only the 4th best team in their division, please enlighten me as to how they make the playoffs?

Did you just miss the standings that noted they have been just as good as the Yankees THIS year, and nearly as good as the Rays and Sox? Seriously all it would have taken was a bit of luck even this year to do it. Writing off a team that has 25M+ to spend this offseason and a team that wasn't even that far off the mark this year is the wrong thing to do. There actually was a time when the Yankees and Red Sox didn't make the playoffs even if you can't remember it, it isn't out of the total realm of possibilities.
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Re: Is there any chance of this happening?

Postby bdrotoronto » Sun Jul 27, 2008 2:45 pm

mweir145 wrote:It has absolutely everything to due with luck. Most things in baseball do. They've allowed less runs than all of the teams in the division, and even wih their terrible offense throughout most of the season have almost scored as many as the Yankees and Rays.

I agree with you it's not going to get any easier for the next GM that comes in, this team's trajectory is looking downward and they're probably at greater risk of falling behind the Orioles than gaining ground on any of the other three. That said, I'd still much rather have someone competent trying to do that job than JP--it will give the franchise a fighting chance.

But there's no way the Jays' performance has anything to do with luck. With the kind pitching they got for most of the season, any ordinary team ought to be able to put themselves in playoff position. Instead, the offence has been so bad that the whole thing's pretty much been wasted, and now the
pitching staff is dinged up/struggling so there's little chance of a turnaround. When a team doesn't give up a lot of runs then most of its losses will necessarily be close. Doesn't make them unlucky when they lose, especially if it happens all the time. The Jays' pathetic offence has nothing to do with luck--they just aren't very good.

I looked up some boxscores from this year of the team's worst losses (I knew off the top of my head there were a ton of them--you know, they were the ones often marked in the Game Commentary threads by you saying that "it can't any worse" and me usually replying that it could). Here are a lot of them below. You can't even fit them into a top-10 list!! How many similar games have the Jays won? 2? 3 at most? There are a few the bullpen blew, but the common thread in so many of them is the offence failing to capitalize on opportunities. The boxscores don't even adequately reflect how many blown opportunities there in many of them to score important runs that failed. How is it possible for any team to lose all these games by virtue of just dumb luck? Impossible. "Luck" doesn't work that way. The fact these losses are all close reflects poorly on them, rather than well as you suggest. Can you honestly look at the commonalities in these games and suggest it's all luck, or far more likely the sign of a poorly constructed team that just doesn't have what it takes to put it together?
A's 6, Jays 3
A's 3, Jays 2 (12)
Rangers 7, Jays 5 (14)
Royals 8, Jays 4
Red Sox 1, Jays 0
Red Sox 2, Jays 1
Rays 8, Jays 3 (13)
Angels 4, Jays 3
Yankees 9, Jays 8
Orioles 6, Jays 5
Mariners 3, Jays 2 (10)
Pirates 1, Jays 0 (12)
Reds 6, Jays 5 (10)
Mariners 7, Jays 6
You've got a diamond, You've got nine men
You've got a hat and a bat, And that's not all..
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Re: Is there any chance of this happening?

Postby Ursa » Sun Jul 27, 2008 2:50 pm

mweir145 wrote:There actually was a time when the Yankees and Red Sox didn't make the playoffs even if you can't remember it, it isn't out of the total realm of possibilities.

I'm sure this is true but, sad to relate, the days of neither of those two bloated plutocrats reaching the playoffs are over and I don't see them coming back. The AL, in effect, has only a maximum of three playoff spots to be had as at least one is going to be occupied by one of the Tedious Twosome. So, if Tampa and Baltimore are fairly decent, it will be an extremely tough row to hoe for the Jays.
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Re: Is there any chance of this happening?

Postby RedSoxNation04 » Sun Jul 27, 2008 3:07 pm

mweir145 wrote:
RedSoxNation04 wrote:Well, actually, no...they're not better than the Sox, the Yanks or the Rays and they won't be either of the next 2-3 years. Sooooooooooooo, if they are only the 4th best team in their division, please enlighten me as to how they make the playoffs?

Did you just miss the standings that noted they have been just as good as the Yankees THIS year, and nearly as good as the Rays and Sox? Seriously all it would have taken was a bit of luck even this year to do it. Writing off a team that has 25M+ to spend this offseason and a team that wasn't even that far off the mark this year is the wrong thing to do. There actually was a time when the Yankees and Red Sox didn't make the playoffs even if you can't remember it, it isn't out of the total realm of possibilities.

It is out of the realm of possibilities...they just can't keep up with the other teams in the AL East right now.
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Re: Is there any chance of this happening?

Postby mweir145 » Sun Jul 27, 2008 3:28 pm

bdrotoronto wrote:
mweir145 wrote:It has absolutely everything to due with luck. Most things in baseball do. They've allowed less runs than all of the teams in the division, and even wih their terrible offense throughout most of the season have almost scored as many as the Yankees and Rays.

I agree with you it's not going to get any easier for the next GM that comes in, this team's trajectory is looking downward and they're probably at greater risk of falling behind the Orioles than gaining ground on any of the other three. That said, I'd still much rather have someone competent trying to do that job than JP--it will give the franchise a fighting chance.

But there's no way the Jays' performance has anything to do with luck. With the kind pitching they got for most of the season, any ordinary team ought to be able to put themselves in playoff position. Instead, the offence has been so bad that the whole thing's pretty much been wasted, and now the
pitching staff is dinged up/struggling so there's little chance of a turnaround. When a team doesn't give up a lot of runs then most of its losses will necessarily be close. Doesn't make them unlucky when they lose, especially if it happens all the time. The Jays' pathetic offence has nothing to do with luck--they just aren't very good.

I looked up some boxscores from this year of the team's worst losses (I knew off the top of my head there were a ton of them--you know, they were the ones often marked in the Game Commentary threads by you saying that "it can't any worse" and me usually replying that it could). Here are a lot of them below. You can't even fit them into a top-10 list!! How many similar games have the Jays won? 2? 3 at most? There are a few the bullpen blew, but the common thread in so many of them is the offence failing to capitalize on opportunities. The boxscores don't even adequately reflect how many blown opportunities there in many of them to score important runs that failed. How is it possible for any team to lose all these games by virtue of just dumb luck? Impossible. "Luck" doesn't work that way. The fact these losses are all close reflects poorly on them, rather than well as you suggest. Can you honestly look at the commonalities in these games and suggest it's all luck, or far more likely the sign of a poorly constructed team that just doesn't have what it takes to put it together?
A's 6, Jays 3
A's 3, Jays 2 (12)
Rangers 7, Jays 5 (14)
Royals 8, Jays 4
Red Sox 1, Jays 0
Red Sox 2, Jays 1
Rays 8, Jays 3 (13)
Angels 4, Jays 3
Yankees 9, Jays 8
Orioles 6, Jays 5
Mariners 3, Jays 2 (10)
Pirates 1, Jays 0 (12)
Reds 6, Jays 5 (10)
Mariners 7, Jays 6


A team's 1 run record is all based on luck, and has absolutely nothing to do with how good of a team you really are. There also is no way to predict how that particular stat will go from year-to-year for any team. The Mariners, for example, weren't actually a good team last year but they had a good record in 1 run games making their record look better than it should have been. For that reason, their collapse isn't unexpected at all.
Last edited by mweir145 on Sun Jul 27, 2008 3:30 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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